This is my second post on the upcoming fantasy football season. My last post focused on late sleepers, while this is based on my views on QB value, when to take QBs, and who to take with good value.
Here we go.
I believe taking a QB first round is a safe bet. Barring injuries, first round QBs are more reliable than first round RBs, by a HUGE margin. I think 4 QBs are worth drafting in the first round. They are Rodgers, Brady, Stafford, and Brees. That is my order, but yours could be different. I am not saying the top 4 picks should be QB. What I am saying is that if the top 3 or 4 Rbs are gone and maybe even top WRs as well, the second tier RBs have question marks, so I would feel better about getting a top flight QB rather than a second tier guy, such as Lynch. Now I will get to specifics about certain QBs after the top 4 I listed.
Cam Newton- I don't recommend getting Newton at all. I would stay away at all costs. He began the season on fire, but he slumped in the second half. He barely averaged 200 passing yards in the second half of the season. People will continue to talk about his rushing ability, but I don't think that will be as much of a factor for multiple reasons. Mike Tolbert was added to the team. The addition of Tolbert creates a logjam at Rbs for Carolina. Tolbert was the goal line back for the chargers, and I believe he will take some of the goal line carries away from Newton. I still expect decent rushing numbers from Newton, they just won't even be close to what they were last year. His rushing numbers are what propelled him to fantasy glory. If they dip at all, theres a chance that hes outside the top 10 rank of QBs.
Matt Ryan- People expected a bigger year from Ryan last year, but I expect his production to increase greatly this year. Julio Jones has emerged as a premier deep threat and red zone receiver, while the offensive line has added talent through the draft. Even though Turner will be used less, I believe the increase in the use of Quizz Rodgers will benefit Ryan and the offense as a whole. If you are not accustomed to drafting a QB early, then Ryan could be a great option later. In most drafts, you could pick up Matt Ryan in the 5th round or later.
Jay Cutler- I think Cutler will be solid, but not exactly starting QB material unless you are in a deep league. The addition of Brandon Marshall and the return of Matt Forte will help the offense, but I do not believe that the offensive line was upgraded to a point where Cutler can be utilized to his full potential. In plenty of games last year, Cutler was running for his life, and he still played well when he was on the field. I would recommend him as a backup QB in a 10 man league or smaller. He could be a decent mid-late QB taken in a bigger draft.
Tony Romo- I believe this season for Romo will be alot like the season Cutler had last year. What I mean by this is that the cowboys have had so many offensive line injuries that they have been shuffling people left and right. I expect Romo to be running for his life, but still be able to make some plays. It helps his case that he has Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, and Miles Austin to through to tho. With all of that in mind, I expect Romo to have a great year. You should be able to get Romo in the 4th round or later in most drafts.
If there are any other QB projections that you want me to write about, just leave a comment below.
Thanks for reading.