FanPost

Comparing Mayhew's Drafts to His Contemporaries

A few days I posted a fan post looking at Mayhew's draft picks performance against expected performance as generated by Football Perspective. Based off of some comments From Thorpac and Billy I looked into the value of Mayhew's draft day trades. Now into response to some of JCruize's concerns on Mayhew's comparisons to his contemporaries, I looked into that as well.

I did make a make a few changes to how I evaluated each draft. The Football Persepctive's people used the first five years of a players Approximate Value (AV) from Pro Football Reference. I used Mayhew's first three draft classes and compared their career AV to what their expected AV up to that point. So if they had been playing three years it was their expected AV times three fifths, that I compared it too. This is probably a little less accurate that my projections in the other post but it was faster and gives a good estimation either way. Basically this method makes late bloomers look worse but player who might only be in the league for a few years look better.

After gathering the actual AV for each team from 2009-2011 draft classes I looked at a the cumulative AV above expectation from those three draft classes but that does not tell the full story. I also looked at the standard deviation of those draft classes, the AV above expectation per draft pick and its standard deviation, as well as miss rate which is the number of picks that did not met expected value over the number of draft picks that did.

Team Rank Net AV Std Draft SD Rank Mean Draft MD Rank Mean Pick MP Rank Std Pick SP Rank Miss Rate MR Rank
GB 1 249.2167 22.35883 19 83.0722222 1 10.740667 1 13.2234 31 0.24 4
NE 2 247.3333 48.95542 32 82.4444444 2 7.4949495 14 13.10707 30 0.393939 20
Cin 3 231.4833 12.42617 6 77.1611111 3 8.2672619 7 8.128979 11 0.464286 25
Sea 4 223.1333 28.42211 23 74.3777778 4 8.9253333 5 14.01857 32 0.32 11
Hou 5 206.3 21.72577 17 68.7666667 5 8.252 8 12.28564 28 0.24 5
SF 6 193.1333 41.48401 30 64.3777778 6 7.7253333 12 12.28958 29 0.28 8
Pit 7 185.3167 29.44219 24 61.7722222 7 7.1275641 16 11.48472 27 0.384615 17
Mia 8 183.8167 10.0679 4 61.2722222 8 7.992029 9 9.377203 17 0.304348 9
Phi 9 179.7833 15.72339 12 59.9277778 9 5.6182292 24 10.07801 23 0.4375 23
Ari 10 173.65 26.34199 21 57.8833333 10 7.7456522 11 7.40888 9 0.565217 32
Atl 11 172.2667 13.72042 9 57.4222222 11 10.345614 2 4.692311 1 0.263158 7
Ten 12 166.6167 22.44519 20 55.5388889 12 5.7454023 22 8.261669 12 0.37931 14
Cle 13 159.0667 30.26114 26 53.0222222 13 6.6277778 18 9.512361 18 0.333333 12
Den 14 157.9667 46.62152 31 52.6555556 14 5.6416667 23 10.88887 25 0.392857 19
Ind 15 157.8819 22.16938 18 52.6273148 15 7.5181878 13 9.134374 15 0.380952 15
Min 16 155.1167 31.27864 27 51.7055556 16 6.7442029 17 9.770264 20 0.391304 18
Tam 17 141.6833 12.92789 7 47.2277778 17 6.1601449 19 10.22934 24 0.304348 10
Oak 18 139.9333 21.00893 16 46.6444444 18 5.8305556 21 10.01184 22 0.416667 21
Jac 19 131.15 34.03661 28 43.7166667 19 9.9075 3 5.548322 2 0.25 6
Chi 20 128.0167 6.750258 1 42.6722222 20 5.9850877 20 6.850473 6 0.421053 22
NYJ 21 115.25 27.83704 22 38.4166667 21 8.8653846 6 11.09209 26 0.230769 2
Was 22 111.9333 29.70889 25 37.3111111 22 4.6638889 27 5.813858 3 0.333333 13
Det 23 110.6333 16.50592 13 36.8777778 23 9.7444444 4 7.164542 8 0.238095 3
Car 24 106.1167 14.61489 11 35.3722222 24 7.8126667 10 6.044158 4 0.52 29
Bal 25 104.8 6.833415 2 34.9333333 25 7.4285714 15 9.285126 16 0.190476 1
Buf 26 99.38333 17.98442 14 33.1277778 26 5.5570513 25 6.095595 5 0.384615 16
SD 27 98.8 14.02767 10 32.9333333 27 4.4909091 28 9.798526 21 0.454545 24
Dal 28 96.2 35.33991 29 32.0666667 28 3.7 29 8.735478 13 0.5 26
NO 29 82.81667 12.038 5 27.6055556 29 5.1760417 26 9.577351 19 0.5 27
KC 30 63.23333 19.17176 15 21.0777778 30 2.6347222 30 7.159528 7 0.541667 30
NYG 31 58.28333 13.27531 8 19.4277778 31 2.4284722 31 8.986162 14 0.541667 31
StL 32 45.06667 7.921342 3 15.0222222 32 1.7333333 32 7.690695 10 0.5 28

What we see is that JCruize was indeed correct. Mayhew's drafts that have been playing long enough to evaluate ranked him 23rd in over all contribution. While this is very disappointing there are some good notes, the first being that he was at the very least consistent. Your thinking consistently bad right? Well this is a positive because while Jacksonville was rated above Detroit at 19th they were 28th in standard deviation. This because roughly 70% of their value in those three drafts came from the 2009 one.

So Mayhew is fairly consistent draft to draft but where his quality is actually shown is when we look at his performance on a pick by pick basis. If we look at the AV above expectation per draft pick Mayhew is actually ranked 4th and to prove its no fluke Mayhew ranks 8th in the standard deviation of AV above expectation per draft pick. He also ranks third in miss rate, only missing on about 24% of his picks.

For the most part you would expect those pick by pick success to correspond to overall draft success. So is Mayhew's lack of bulk success just a matter of him making sure he has more draft picks? In a sense that is the case, Mayhew probably would have looked better if he had more picks and had not traded them for vets or up for running backs. One thing that the top teams had in common was making hay in the second round, by both hitting those picks and having multiple second rounders. Right now the only second round pick that could work out is Slay, which is not promising.

The more time I spent doing research the more it looked like that Mayhew really was not giving the team the raw amount of talent through the draft to compete with the upper tier teams. Mayhew did get talent via trades for Sims and Houston but needed to do better in the draft. There is a possibility that these past two drafts were good enough to start pushing the team in the right direction. They certainly look promising but we know that in the future Mayhew needs to get more value to give this team better depth to go along with the top tier talent we already have.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Pride Of Detroit or its writers.

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