A few days I posted a fan post looking at Mayhew's draft picks performance against expected performance as generated by Football Perspective. Based off of some comments From Thorpac and Billy I looked into the value of Mayhew's draft day trades. Now into response to some of JCruize's concerns on Mayhew's comparisons to his contemporaries, I looked into that as well.
I did make a make a few changes to how I evaluated each draft. The Football Persepctive's people used the first five years of a players Approximate Value (AV) from Pro Football Reference. I used Mayhew's first three draft classes and compared their career AV to what their expected AV up to that point. So if they had been playing three years it was their expected AV times three fifths, that I compared it too. This is probably a little less accurate that my projections in the other post but it was faster and gives a good estimation either way. Basically this method makes late bloomers look worse but player who might only be in the league for a few years look better.
After gathering the actual AV for each team from 2009-2011 draft classes I looked at a the cumulative AV above expectation from those three draft classes but that does not tell the full story. I also looked at the standard deviation of those draft classes, the AV above expectation per draft pick and its standard deviation, as well as miss rate which is the number of picks that did not met expected value over the number of draft picks that did.
|Team||Rank||Net AV||Std Draft||SD Rank||Mean Draft||MD Rank||Mean Pick||MP Rank||Std Pick||SP Rank||Miss Rate||MR Rank|
What we see is that JCruize was indeed correct. Mayhew's drafts that have been playing long enough to evaluate ranked him 23rd in over all contribution. While this is very disappointing there are some good notes, the first being that he was at the very least consistent. Your thinking consistently bad right? Well this is a positive because while Jacksonville was rated above Detroit at 19th they were 28th in standard deviation. This because roughly 70% of their value in those three drafts came from the 2009 one.
So Mayhew is fairly consistent draft to draft but where his quality is actually shown is when we look at his performance on a pick by pick basis. If we look at the AV above expectation per draft pick Mayhew is actually ranked 4th and to prove its no fluke Mayhew ranks 8th in the standard deviation of AV above expectation per draft pick. He also ranks third in miss rate, only missing on about 24% of his picks.
For the most part you would expect those pick by pick success to correspond to overall draft success. So is Mayhew's lack of bulk success just a matter of him making sure he has more draft picks? In a sense that is the case, Mayhew probably would have looked better if he had more picks and had not traded them for vets or up for running backs. One thing that the top teams had in common was making hay in the second round, by both hitting those picks and having multiple second rounders. Right now the only second round pick that could work out is Slay, which is not promising.
The more time I spent doing research the more it looked like that Mayhew really was not giving the team the raw amount of talent through the draft to compete with the upper tier teams. Mayhew did get talent via trades for Sims and Houston but needed to do better in the draft. There is a possibility that these past two drafts were good enough to start pushing the team in the right direction. They certainly look promising but we know that in the future Mayhew needs to get more value to give this team better depth to go along with the top tier talent we already have.