On the recent thread at about drafting corners high, BillySimsMadeMeDo poised the question "What are the odds they all ball out?" in reference to our young corners. He later referenced their draft status as part of the reason he questioned the viability/the riskiness of relying on them.
Previously I had looked at the correlation between rookie year performances which gave us an idea of how promising each of the young corner's were. Slay and Greenwood were similar and promising and Green actually came out pretty well as well. This however did not answer the question of "What the odd are?" especially in reference to their draft position so I did some more work, instead of doing my real work.
I went to Pro-Football-Refrence.com and used their draft finder to gather all the DB's by round. It was limited to DB's so I did not spend the time to break them up into corners and safeties. What I did do though is look at their Career AV and divided by their years to establish an quick average yearly performance. (Note: this has some slop because Career AV is actually a weighted average but its good enough) I then established that a solid starter/occasional probowler should get above a 6 in this new "Average Yearly Performance." Then I used it to establish what the success percentage for a DB for each round was.
|Average Career AV||39.95506||27.87168||28.85185||13.79372||11.42574||10.44944|
|Successful Starter Percent||25.2809||13.2948||10.59603||4.132231||6.666667||4.950495|
If we look at the chart we see what we expect a 1st round DB is nearly twice as likely to succeed as a second round DB and it goes down from there. With our current corners we can expect that the probability of at least one of them succeeding is about 30.5% and the likelihood of all of them going all balls out is 0.004%. I think my earlier post probably gives us an better idea of each one because we have more knowledge now than just their draft position but this gives us an idea that adding that first round corner could increase our chances of finding a starter by 25%.
The real question here is, is that 25% chance of getting a starting corner versus the likelihood that our current corners develop and another player at another positions production and starter viability. I am still not for taking a corner at 10 but looking at the general trends make it seem not as bad of a proposition as I originally thought, at least for a generic draft maybe not this specific one though.