FanPost

Let Suh Walk

I recently had some free time to kill. I decided to take a look at what signing Suh would actually cost the Lions. I did this by comparing salary information across four successful teams: The top playoff teams from this year. Below is a graph of those salaries, from lowest to highest, per player (top 12 contracts shown by average per-year salary).

Average Salary

Average Salary per Player

What jumped out at me here was that, besides one lone outlier (Aaron Rodgers), the Lions top three contracts already all outrank these other teams. By millions of dollars. The Lions' line is the most extreme by far. And you can see how it already affects the rest of the team; instead of averaging around $5-6 million per player in the "mid-tier" of the upper-end, the Lions' drop precipitously to an average of around $3-4 million per player.

Bumping Suh's average per-year contract up is only going to exacerbate this problem. And to get it done, they will either have to extend other contracts and put more dead money on the books in later years, or let somebody (like Bush) go, or both.

>>> "Yeah, but just wait 'til the Colts have to pay Luck... the Seahawks Wilson... etc. Then those graphs will look so much different."

Sure. They might have their ONE elite QB dot move up, and end up looking more like the Green Bay line. But it's NOT like the Lions' graph will stay the same, and the others' will "catch up". Not if the Lions pay Suh. If they do, the Lions' graph will become even more unbalanced, as more and more "dead money" from all their deals builds up. And remember, they still have to pay Stafford and Calvin. What happens when they need to give Levy or Reiff or Warford or any other number of players a raise to keep them? What happens when they need to attract some mid-tier FAs?

And yeah, maybe they can buy some more time and find a little wiggle room here and there a couple times. But they won't be able to every time. At some point, it will catch up to them. They'll lose other players they've invested in, and it will affect who they can target in free agency (I would argue that it probably already has).

Signing Suh will cost the Lions a lot more than the $16 mil or whatever in salary. It will cost them in opportunities, players, and talent at every other position that's not Stafford, CJ, and Suh. It's already having an effect on this "mid-tier" of salary cap players; signing Suh will only exacerbate the problem.

UPDATE:

Here are how the Lions measure up to league averages. There are three groups: Lions as a team (BLUE); Average of QB-less teams, RED (included here are teams who have no real plan at QB, like the Browns, Bills, Texans, et al, and those whose QBs are still under rookie contract, i.e., Colts, Panthers, Vikings); and QB-set teams, YELLOW (all teams who are paying their QB, i.e., Manning, Eli, Big Ben, Cutler, Dalton, Flacco, etc.).

You can see how the curve is pretty stable for both sets of averages, except for the top-paid player in yellow. This player is, with only one exception, the QB (the Patriots are the exception; Brady currently has an average salary less than Gronk). (Note how Stafford is basically exactly an average-paid starting QB for non-rookies across the league).

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See how they are already paying way more to their second and third highest players (CJ and Suh)? By keeping Suh, the Lions would basically have three guys making $16-17 million a piece. That's crazy.

In other words, I am saying that Suh's "market rate" is driven up by teams who can afford to make him their highest-paid player (i.e., the Raiders). There are actually TWO MARKETS. In one market are the QB-less teams who can pay higher rates. In the other market are teams whose highest salary is set for a QB. They can't afford to pay as much. The Lions belong to that second category.

>>> "Suh is worth every penny."

This is like saying a meal of prime steak and top-shelf whiskey worth every penny of its price tag, so that's what I should eat. Look, steak and a single malt is DELICIOUS and amazing. It might be worth every penny. But if I'm in line at the grocery store and that's what's in my cart, and I take out food-stamps to pay for it... That's a problem.

It would be a very legitimate question to ask me, "Hey, you're spending every penny you have for the month on steak and whiskey! What is going to make up the rest of your balanced diet? You know, the other 2,000 calories per day you need for the rest of the month?" If I replied to you, "No no, you just don't understand, a steak like THIS? Grilled to perfection? And a single malt scotch to wash it down? That meal doesn't just come along every day! IT'S WORTH EVERY PENNY!" Well, you'd be verrrrry justified in looking at me all cock-eyed and being like, "You're outta your mind."

Suh's no different. Will the Lions miss him? Absolutely. Is he worth an elite contract? Yes. But should the LIONS, in their position, pay him elite money? Hell no. If they pay him, and ESPECIALLY if they render hima $26 mil franchise tag, I am gonna look at Mayhew all cock-eyed and be like, "You're outta your mind."

Again, remember Suh's a DT, not an elite CB or QB or even WR (like it or not, these are the positions that have a higher percentage impact on the game the way it's played today).

>>> "McCoy has set the market rate. Suh is worth as much as him."

To a team like the Raiders, whose highest cap casualty is currently Matt Schaub at $6.75 mil? Sure. Tampa was able to pay McCoy that much b/c their only other high-salaried player is Vincent Jackson. They don't have a QB locked up, and will (again) be turning to a developmental guy in Glennon, or probably their top draft pick this year, or yet another journeyman like McCown.

Oakland, likewise, looks like they'll be going with Carr. The point is, they have resources to spend on an elite player who plays at a less impactful position. These are the kinds of teams that drive up Suh's "market value", which would certainly be less if every team was paying an elite-level QB some $16-20 million per year.

The Lions, on the other hand, already have their elite money locked into Stafford and Calvin Johnson. And rightly so. So does everyone else in the league who's not paying a DT outrageous amounts.

Wouldn't it be great if the Lions had 20 superstars, and be able to pay each of them $15 million per year or more? It would. Unfortunately, it's just not realistic. If the Lions want to have long-term success and build a perennial playoff team, signing Suh looks like it will put a serious, irreparable dent in those plans. His contract is already too large for the Lions.

Even if they want nothing more than to go "all in", it will come at the cost of somebody (Bush now, and who knows who later? Levy? He'll be hitting FA next year, along with Reiff, Bentley, Whitehead, Waddle, Fuller, Fauria...). The Lions can't fill their entire roster with draft picks every year, and they can't sign FAs without cap room.

*I took a look at the numbers across the league, and some teams had NO player with an average salary of $10 mil or more. Most of the league had one (a QB or a CB) or two (a QB and a CB). Only 5 other teams currently have 3 or more players making $10 million a year or more: the others were the Cardinals, Cowboys, Broncos, Rams, and Chiefs.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Pride Of Detroit or its writers.