FanPost

Planting My Flag - 2016 NFL Draft Edition

<a class='sbn-auto-link' href=

The 2016 NFL draft will begin in three days. Each year the interest in, and analysis of, the draft grows. These days you can't swing a dead cat without hitting two people sitting at their computers pounding out a mock draft. While the volume of analysis has increased, I'm not entirely certain that the quality is keeping pace. Sometimes, instead of more being better, more is just more. And what quality existed gets harder and harder to find as it is buried beneath more and more dross. The gold is getting buried in Pyrite. Trying to get a handle on which analysts know their stuff, and which ones are just blindly lobbing grenades is getting harder and harder.

Exacerbating the problem further, the NFL draft is a crapshoot with numerous complicating factors. Sometimes a phenomenal player blows out a knee, is never the same, and washes out of the NFL having never fulfilled his potential. Players can be lazy, or love recreational drugs more than football. They can get drafted by a team that has no idea how to use them, stunting their growth permanently. These sorts of events are not only unforeseen by analysts, but they are unforeseeable. They cannot be accounted for, which renders any and all player projections tentative and uncertain, at best.

Another complicating factor is that the results of a draft cannot be fully known until several years later. Many players don't define their careers until five or more years into them. By then everyone has moved on and forgotten what analysts said.

Even more problematic is that draft analysts rarely differentiate what they think teams will do with what they believe teams should do. The former is making a prediction about the collective psychology of a NFL team, the latter is a referendum on their ability to do their job competently. Because every mock draft I've ever seen is a combination of both kinds of picks, we can't even use those to judge the competence of an analyst.

As such, accountability in analysis has gone out the window. Completely. It has vanished. NFL draft analysts are judged on the thoroughness of their work, their entertainment value, their ability to draw ratings and mouse clicks, and their ability to articulate their points.

Not one of them is judged by the accuracy of their analysis.

What should be the only measure of their worth is not how their worth is measured.

This is the first year I've really been interested in analyzing the NFL draft prior to the draft occurring. This is the first time I've done research, watched tape, and formed what I believe to be defensible positions on several NFL prospects. But I want to be judged by only one criteria: whether or not I am right.

So years from now, when the book on the 2016 NFL draft has been written, the accuracy of this list of predictions is how I want to be judged.

This is where I plant my flag.

In no particular order, here are my assessments of the 2016 NFL draft class.


It doesn't have to be one or the other: Jared Goff and Carson Wentz will both be good NFL QB's. Goff sooner than Wentz.

Christian Hackenberg will be a total, complete, utter disaster of a NFL QB. We're talking a head-on collision between a flaming garbage truck and a semi carrying several full port-o-johns which is then hit by a nuclear warhead. He's the most unaware, inaccurate, confused prospect I've ever seen. And don't tell me his line stunk (it did) he was directly responsible for more sacks than they were. His total inability to read a defense, make a decision, then make an accurate throw are astonishing. He should go undrafted.

One day Corey Coleman will lead the NFL in yards after the catch per reception. That man is as tough to tackle as a greased weasel. Exceptional speed and athleticism paired with phenomenal college production.

Four years from now, Braxton Miller will still be a gadget player in search of a role in the NFL. NFL defenses will only be fooled by jet sweeps and a limited route-tree for so long. They'll catch on.

Chris Jones will be under-drafted. Wherever he goes, it should have been higher. Watching SEC lineman try to block him was like watching bunnies try to stop a backhoe.

Jeremy Cash will be a good player without a position. A team that tries to make him into a full-time Safety will get burned in coverage, a team that tries to make him into a LB will get hurt against the run. Given the way the NFL is going, 4-3 OLB will be the better position for him.

David Morgan II will be the next Jim Kleinsasser. He'll never make the Pro Bowl, will never have great stats, and will never look great doing it, but he'll play in the NFL for a decade because he blocks the hell out of the guy lined up across from him and catches the ball when it's thrown to him.

Kendall Fuller will be a massive disappointment. Having siblings in the NFL doesn't mean you'll be good (see: every Gonkowski but Rob). He wasn't even good in college. Why he's a hot NFL prospect escapes me.

Five years from now, when speaking on Boston College LB Steven Daniels, an analyst will state on TV "I don't know how we missed this guy, he was spectacular in college and he's done nothing but produce in the NFL." He's likely to be the next Vontaze Burfict.

Derrick Henry will be Brandon Jacobs 2.0. He'll have stretches that make everyone think he's on his way to the Hall of Fame. But it won't last. He'll take too much punishment to have a long career.

Josh Doctson and Corey Coleman will be, by far, better NFL players than Laquon Treadwell who will struggle to get open against NFL CB's.

Nick Kwiatkoski will be every bit as good as Reggie Ragland, and probably better.

Someone will draft Le'Raven Clark because of his incredible attributes. They'll eventually cut him because he stinks at football.

Germain Ifedi will be out of the NFL even faster than Le'Raven Clark, for the same reason.

Justin Simmons will be the best rookie Safety from this class. Karl Joseph will even better after that when he is further removed from his torn ACL.

If any 3-4 team takes Joe Schobert in round 3 or later they will be exceedingly pleased with the results.

Will Fuller will be one part Torrey Smith, one part Ted Ginn, and one part Troy Williamson. Having speed is nice, but speed by itself isn't enough. Bad, bad hands. That's a problem if your job is to catch things.

Ohio State LB Joshua Perry will get drafted much later than Darron Lee, but will end up having the better career. He can do more things better.

After an impressive first season spent mauling D-linemen, no one will ever bring up Cody Whitehair's unimpressive combine bench press numbers again.

Sheldon Day won't live up to the hype. His hustle earned him a lot of clean up sacks in college. But in the NFL with better blockers, and QB's who know when to get rid of the ball, his production will dry up.

Rashard Higgins doesn't run fast, but he somehow gets separation at will. He could have a Rod Smith or Keenan McCardell career. Nothing flashy, nothing sexy, just catching the ball and racking up yards.


Players the Detroit Lions will not regret selecting at 16th overall:

Sheldon Rankins - Will become the most disruptive DT in the NFL not named Aaron Donald.
Jack Conklin - Great run blocker, and good enough pass protector. Great fit for the Lions.
William Jackson III - CB is a very important position, and Jackson will be a star.
Shaq Lawson - Very productive DE. Would be a great complement to Ansah.
Mackenzie Alexander - Ridiculously sticky in coverage. It's like he's made of velcro.

Players the Detroit Lions will regret selecting at 16th overall:

Jarran Reed - NFL teams play sub-packages (nickel, or dime defense) on over 60% of plays now. A run-stuffing DT who comes off the field for a lot of those 60% of snaps should not be a first round pick. He's just not a good enough pass rusher for the Lions' scheme.

A'Shawn Robinson - Not high on him as a prospect, and same problem as Jarran Reed.

Andrew Billings - Might be a good player, but same problem as Jarran Reed.

Robert Nkemdiche - A head case whose production will never match his talent.

Reggie Ragland - He may become a good NFL LB, but not with the Lions. They don't need him and his weakness in coverage will have Lions fans turning on him by year three.

Laquon Treadwell - As a larger, slower receiver, with below average athleticism he will struggle to separate in the NFL like Kenny Britt before him.

Darron Lee - The Lions already have a LB who specializes in rushing the passer but has no idea how zone coverages work. One Kyle Van Noy is enough, thank you.

Taylor Decker - There will be at least five OT's who become better Pros from this draft class alone. After watching him, Lions fans will be aghast and state "he looks like he's never blocked for a 7-step drop before." And that will be because he basically hasn't.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Pride Of Detroit or its writers.