Pride Of Detroit: All Posts by Jeremy Reisman

Video review: Meet Jason Jones

2013-03-19T13:00:13Z

The Detroit Lions, desperately thin on defensive linemen, signed former Seattle Seahawk Jason Jones to a three-year deal last week. Jones is a versatile player who bounced around positions during his time with both Seattle and Tennessee. According to Pro Football Focus, his strength is on the inside, but Jim Schwartz has announced he primarily wants to use Jones as a defensive end.

Is this a mistake? Will Jones fight for a starting job? What exactly are the Lions getting in Jones? I went to the tape to find some answers.

Indeed, it did look like Jones excelled most as an interior pass rusher, but that doesn't mean he has no value on the outside. Contrary to common belief, the Titans did not use Jones solely as a defensive tackle. They moved him to the end position quite frequently (though not as frequently as the Seahawks did).

Jones doesn't have the speed move that the Lions seem to look for, but, instead, uses his strength and physicality to elude offensive linemen.

Interlocked with the right tackle, Jones uses his hands to swipe away from him and come bearing down on the quarterback.

Jones neatly wraps up the quarterback and finishes the sack, leaving the poor right tackle to watch the carnage.

Jones' physicality will also give the Lions a big boost in run defense, as he proved last year with the Seahawks.

Again lined up at left defensive end, Jones has a tough task on this play. The run is designed away from Jones, and a pulling tight end is heading his way to keep him out of the play. Jones quickly recognizes the play, puts his head down and tries to run through the tight end.

Jones completely eludes the blocker and makes the tackle right at the line of scrimmage. The tight end is left flat on his back, wondering how he got there. Fantastic play from Jones.

But what stuck out very clearly in Jones' tape was his endless hustle. Countless times Jones was fighting his way through double teams, hustling to the other side of the field or even tracking down receivers and backs from behind. The man clearly plays with high intensity and an insatiable hunger for the ball. It is his biggest strength.

Take this play, for example. Jones is lined up at defensive tackle, and the play is an inside slant. Jones' responsibility is to rush the passer, but he's facing a double team. He doesn't make much progress getting to the quarterback, but he doesn't give up on the play.

As the receiver makes the catch, we can see most of the defensive linemen turn their head and half-heartedly jog downfield without any real interest in catching him. But Jones is full-on sprinting and manages to make the tackle, preventing a huge play downfield.

Because I know you all get sick of staring at fuzzy stills, I have compiled some moving pictures to whet your appetite. For viewing purposes, Jones was No. 90 in Seattle and No. 91 in Tennessee.

First, watch as Jones makes a nasty move inside, then refuses to give up and completes the sack on Ben Roethlisberger.

Next, see Jones' resiliency pay off in the form of a forced fumble.

Finally, sacks, sacks and more sacks.

And I've saved the best for last:

While Jones may not have the athleticism that Cliff Avril has, he is a versatile player who will see the field often next year. Even though the Lions seem set on making him a defensive end, I fully expect to see Jones all over the field in 2013. His strong desire will make for a good presence in the locker room and a model of hustle on the field. It may not be the big defensive line addition that many (including myself) were looking for, but Jones was a nice find by the Lions front office to supplement their current roster.

Video review: Meet Glover Quin

2013-03-15T13:00:18Z

The Detroit Lions addressed one of their biggest offseason needs with the addition of safety Glover Quin. Formerly with the Houston Texans, Quin has a ton of experience in his four years in the NFL. In fact, since he entered the league, he has started all but four games, three of which were his first games in the league. However, it's hard to gather how successful Quin has been just from his statistics. He only has 5 career interceptions (3 in one game), but he also has 48 passes defended in just 60 career starts. So instead of basing his performance on some numbers, let's look at some tape.

I watched about three games from last season, and the thing that jumped out was how often the Texans used Quin in the box. Almost any time the offense went into a three-wide set, Quin left the traditional safety position and dropped down into a nickel or dime corner position. There, he was typically lined up against a tight end, slot receiver or running back.

Here we can see Quin lined up, not as a safety, but as an additional corner opposite Jermichael Finley. Quin is in man coverage, something he is clearly very comfortable with. As the play develops, Quin displays excellent footwork and altogether perfect coverage.

Quin is just where he needs to be, and he turns his head to find the ball. He is a little late to find the ball and doesn't connect on the interception, but his perfect positioning makes for an easy pass breakup.

Glover also showed consistency in covering slot receivers, and he showed immense value in the red zone.

This time one-on-one against Jordy Nelson, Quin again is lined up as an additional corner.

Though initially letting Nelson get a step on him, Quin quickly closes on him and gets a hand on the pass. Unfortunately, Nelson makes a fantastic grab on a perfectly placed pass, but Quin couldn't have played the pass much better ... and look at those ups!

Being a consistent man in the box, the Texans also sent Quin on blitzes fairly often. Though he only met moderate success doing so (1 career sack), it is another element of his game that the Lions may utilize.

Quin is right up on the line of scrimmage pre-snap. He is trying to confuse the offense by toggling between blitzing and coverage looks. But as soon as the ball is snapped, he shoots downfield.

Joe Flacco releases the ball quickly, giving Quin little time to force any pressure. However, Quin shows great awareness and athleticism, deflecting the ball and causing it to fall harmlessly to the ground.

Quin, overall, is a versatile athlete in a shallow secondary. His biggest challenge will be to adjust to a more traditional safety role. Though Louis Delmas liked to drop in the box as well, he never really was used in the way the Texans used Quin.

But, to be fair, Quin's man coverage didn't always go as well as the plays that I outlined above.

BEWARE: THE FOLLOWING VIDEO CONTAINS GRAPHIC IMAGES, INCLUDING A SEVERELY BURNED DEFENDER

Click, if you dare.

Ugliness aside, Quin is a (mostly) dependable coverage man. His ability to play both man coverage and deep zone as a safety will give Lions coaches plenty of options. The Lions could still use another player to play as a more traditional free safety, but overall this is a solid move to improve a weak secondary.

• Follow all of the Lions' free agency news

• 2013 Detroit Lions free agency tracker

• Recap of the Lions' crazy Wednesday

• Jeff Backus retires from NFL after 12 seasons

NFL free agency 2013: Potential safety targets for Lions

2013-03-09T00:00:05Z

Safety has been a position of turmoil for the Detroit Lions for quite some time. Injuries and inconsistent play have left the Lions without two clear starting safeties. With Louis Delmas (unrestricted) and Amari Spievey (restricted) both set to become free agents, the situation only becomes cloudier for the 2013 season. Free agency gives the Lions a few options to upgrade the position. A few candidates have caught my eye.

LaRon Landry

Landry very much resembles a Delmas-like playing style. He's very aggressive, speedy and solid against the run. His speed allows him to take a few more chances than many safeties, but it also tends to get him into trouble. Overall, however, Landry would easily become the Lions' best safety if they snagged him in the offseason.

Here Landry is in man coverage against Rob Gronkowski. As you can see, he is absolutely smothering him in perfect coverage. For a second, let's ignore the fact that the ball was thrown perfectly and Gronk made a fantastic grab. There was literally nothing more Landry could do on this play.

As mentioned earlier, Landry is also dependable in run coverage.

Landry is in deep coverage to begin the play, and when the running back gets the ball, Landry is nearly 20 yards away from him. But Landry makes up ground and makes it up quickly.

Landry comes flying in "Da Missile" style and makes the stop for merely a 6-yard gain.

The biggest problem with Landry is his price tag. He reportedly wants at least $6 million a year, which would put him among the top five paid safeties in the entire league. He would be the biggest upgrade for the Lions at the position but would require a serious amount of commitment that I'm not sure they can afford.

Chris Clemons

Clemons represents a slightly cheaper option for the Lions, but he is still a starter-quality player. Clemons would have to adjust his style of a play a little if he donned the Honolulu blue. In Miami, he often played as the one high safety and rarely came into the box for run support. His style is very conservative, but he is fairly dependable in pass coverage.

As for his run coverage, Clemons is a bit of a mixed bag. Pro Football Focus ranked him sixth in tackling efficiency among safeties, but in the game I watched (vs. the New England Patriots), Clemons had some trouble tackling.

Here is Clemons with a one-on-one chance to take down a back in the open field. Clemons barely gets a hand on him, and while it is barely enough to take down the ball-carrier, Clemons nearly allowed an 8-10 yard gain turn into a 30-40 yard play.

Overall, however, I think it's fair to say that while run support isn't Clemons' strength, it doesn't appear to be a huge weakness, either.

Clemons is a young option (27), and while he isn't exactly a top-tier player, he would be a dependable starter.

Chris Crocker

If you're looking for a starter in free agency who will come at a discounted price, Crocker is your man. As the Cincinnati Bengals struggled early in the season trying to find a starting safety, Crocker quickly emerged as their most dependable option. He isn't the flashiest of players like Landry or your Ed Reeds and Charles Woodsons, but he is very reliable in coverage.

As San Diego was driving late, hoping to tie up the game, Crocker came up big. Playing two-deep zone, Crocker had to make up a lot of ground to catch the receiver at the top of the screen.

Crocker recognizes the route, and while it's hard to see from the still, he breaks quickly enough to force a wide throw and the ball falls harmlessly incomplete.

But Crocker can do more than just force inaccurate passes, as he still has some impressive athleticism.

Again, playing two-deep zone, Crocker, this time, must disrupt a seem route up the middle. As he is currently on the outside of the route, it will take quick recognition and speed to make an impact. Crocker plays it beautifully.

Crocker makes it to the ball just in time, leaps up and rips it from the tight end, picking up a huge interception.

Perhaps Crocker's biggest downfall is his age. At 33 (happy birthday, Saturday!), he won't have many years ahead of him. But a one or two-year contract would be a mutually beneficial relationship for the Lions and Crocker.

The best-case scenario for the Lions would be to re-sign Delmas and pick up a guy like Crocker. Other options are just too costly or too risky.

NFL free agency 2013: Potential defensive end targets for Lions

2013-03-07T16:00:10Z

Going into the 2013 offseason, it became clear very early that defensive end was a huge need for the Detroit Lions, perhaps their biggest. Cliff Avril is looking more and more likely to find a lucrative contract elsewhere, and Kyle Vanden Bosch has already been given his pink slip. While drafting a defensive end is a very real possibility at the No. 5 overall pick, the Lions also have some interesting free agency options.

Michael Bennett

In a league starved for elite pass rushers, Bennett is the belle of the free agency ball, and for good reason. I took a look at his Week 3 performance against the Dallas Cowboys (admittedly, his best game of the season), and he was absolutely dominant.

Bennett has the classic quick outside move, but what really impressed me was his bull rush and overall strength. On this running play, Bennett used his pure strength to tally the tackle for loss.

Bennett immediately bull rushes the offensive guard and quickly finds himself in the backfield.

With the lineman well out of his way, Bennett is easily able to track down the running back behind the line of scrimmage.

But his strength doesn't stop with run defending. Just look at what he did to Jason Witten:

Bennett actually has Witten airborne as he takes full advantage of the mismatch. This play ends with Bennett laying a crushing hit on Tony Romo, forcing a fumble.

Overall, Bennett is pretty much the full package and a perfect fit for the Lions. But he will come at a big price. The Lions defense is centered on its defensive line, and a good pass rush can cover up some deficiencies on the back end. I don't think it's out of the question that the Lions will try and make a run at Bennett, but it's tough seeing them coming out winners in a bidding war. Still, a man can dream.

Dwight Freeney

Once the most feared defensive end in the game, Freeney's statistics took a big dive last year when the Indianapolis Colts moved to a 3-4 defense. Freeney only managed 5 sacks last year after totaling 42.5 sacks in the previous four seasons. At 33, Freeney wouldn't provide a long-term solution, but could his career be revived in Detroit, where the wide-nine system perfectly fits his skill set? I went to the tape to see if he still has it.

The verdict? Yes and no. Yes, Freeney still has the speed and agility to turn around even the best of offensive tackles, but it is also clear he cannot do it with the same consistency of the past.

In his game against Buffalo last season, he failed to tally a sack or a tackle, but flashes of old Freeney were still there.

On this play, Freeney just used his speed to beat the left tackle to the outside. His pressure forced an inaccurate throw that was intercepted (and subsequently fumbled). Similarly, his famous spin move is still alive and well.

After faking a run to the outside, Freeney spun toward the inside, putting the tackle off balance and getting a free shot at the quarterback. Again, he forced a quick throw.

But, at times, Freeney's age showed. On a simple play, Freeney was lined up opposite a tight end and had absolutely no success in shaking him.

Freeney initially fakes to the outside, then tries to break back inside. But his agility is no match for the tight end and he's forced to try and beat him to the outside once again:

A few seconds after the snap, Freeney finds himself in no better position. In fact, the tight end has played him perfectly and opened up a huge lane for the quarterback to step into. The tight end has offensive line help, but he doesn't even need it to take Freeney out of the equation.

Nonetheless, Freeney would be a semi-cheap, stop-gap option for the Lions in free agency. While he won't likely ever reach the level of a perpetual 10-sacks-a-season end, he would definitely be an upgrade over 2012 Vanden Bosch. He's still worth kicking the tires on, especially if you can get him at a discounted rate.

Antwan Barnes

If the Lions decide that they don't want to get involved in a bidding war for Bennett and don't see much left in Freeney, Barnes may provide a cheap, interesting option. Barnes is a speedy edge rusher who previously played as a 3-4 OLB with the San Diego Chargers. However, his speed and agility could prove useful, especially given that the Lions seem to desire pass rushing skills above all else in their defensive ends.

Barnes exploded onto the scene with an 11-sack season in 2011. However, delegated to a backup role last year, he only managed 3 sacks and 7 tackles. Because of this, he'll come cheap, but Pro Football Focus still lists him as a top-10 pass rusher in this free agency market.

On film, Barnes' speed was easy to spot:

After a slight hesitation, trying to throw the tackle off, Barnes turned on the jets and simply ran right around the offensive lineman.

Even Joe Flacco's "Oh please, don't hurt me" posture isn't enough to stop Barnes, who easily picks up the sack.

But a guy like Barnes represents only potential. He has very little experience as a starter (five games), and half of his career sacks came solely from the 2011 season. His situation reminds me a lot of Willie Young; very good as a situational player, but may not be able to make that jump into a full-time starter.

Overall, I think the Lions have three options: draft a top-tier defensive end this year and possibly supplement him with an aging veteran (if not Freeney, possibly Osi Umenyiora), take a run at Bennett or be satisfied with Avril and make him a fair offer. Finding a cheap option isn't likely to bear any fruit and doesn't seem like a smart move considering they already have players like Young and Lawrence Jackson who could easily be re-signed.

NFL free agency 2013: Video review of Lions' potential targets at guard

2013-03-06T19:02:07Z

The Detroit Lions' starting offensive line is going to be different for the first time since 2010. With Stephen Peterman ousted and Jeff Backus' status still unknown, the Lions will likely be searching for at least one offensive lineman to join the squad this offseason. While it's certainly possible Riley Reiff gets moved inside to take Peterman's spot, as Sean suggested, I believe it is more likely that the Lions go after one of the guards available in free agency. Here are a few of their options.

Brandon Moore

Brandon Moore is regarded as one of the best guards in the 2013 pool. I re-watched his Week 4 performance against the impressive San Francisco 49ers defensive line. Though the New York Jets only managed 45 yards on the ground in a losing effort, Moore's run blocking skills jumped out as a huge strength. On a counter play, Moore displayed his speed, agility and smarts.

On this play, Moore needs to loop around the line quickly and seal the hole from the inside before the running back gets there.

As you can see, Moore puts himself in a great position to take the linebacker out of the play. His block is mediocre, but his positioning is perfect, so the play still gains 4-5 yards.

However, a bit concerning was Moore's ability (or lack thereof) to pass block in one-on-one situations. On two occasions, Moore was sidestepped with ease by Ray McDonald.

Moore tends to be too aggressive in his pass blocking, making him vulnerable to a swim move that quickly puts him off balance. Here it happens again:

Moore (center of the play) was in perfect position less than a second ago, but the defender got him off balance quickly and forced a quick throw.

With the Lions' high frequency of pass plays, Moore's struggles in pass protection are tough to overlook. And at age 33, Moore's best days are likely behind him. Still, with the Lions lacking a solid rushing attack since the days of Barry, Moore is a tempting option.

Andy Levitre

Another possibility for the Lions is Andy Levitre. Like Moore, Levitre is regarded as one of the best free agents available. However, Levitre has yet to prove his longevity and consistency. He has only been in the league since 2009, when he was drafted in the second round by the Buffalo Bills.

Levitre failed to jump out when watching on film, but as an offensive guard, that's a good thing. For consistency purposes, I also watched his game against the 49ers. However, Levitre played left guard in this game, often matching up against Pro Bowler Justin Smith.

Levitre held his own against Smith, holding him without a sack. And he managed pretty well against the run, as well. On a run designed to go directly at Levitre, Andy managed to hold Smith at bay just long enough for C.J. Spiller to break free.

Levitre must get to Smith's right and seal him out from the inside, a task much easier said than done.

Levitre doesn't quite get to the inside, but he engages Smith long enough and turns him around. As Smith finally escapes the block, he has a great view of Spiller running right by him.

The biggest concern with Levitre is his price. Entering the offseason at just 26 years old and widely regarded as the best pass-blocking guard available (he also has NFL experience at left tackle), the Lions would have to allocate a lot of offseason resources to nab him. Considering the Lions' more pressing needs, I would say they are a long shot to corral Levitre.

Donald Thomas

Perhaps more in the Lions' financial wheelhouse is intriguing free agent Donald Thomas. Thomas, a sixth-round draft pick in 2008, has bumped around the league in his five-year career. He spent two years with the Miami Dolphins, suffering a Lisfranc fracture before being released the next season. After spending half of the 2010 season without an NFL home, the Lions actually scooped him up. However, he remained inactive for the rest of the season. The New England Patriots gave Thomas a new home the following season, and he seemed to excel in a limited role in New England. Occasionally used as a fullback, but mostly as a backup guard, Thomas made great use of the field time he got.

When starting right guard Dan Connolly went down with an injury in Week 2, Thomas stepped in and impressed.

Thomas showed impressive speed and footwork by getting to holes quickly and anchoring himself like in the picture above. But Thomas also displayed his savvy against an underrated Arizona Cardinals defense.

Arizona tried to disguise its pressure by dropping the defensive tackle over Thomas into coverage while sending two blitzers on the edge. However, Thomas was not shaken by the ruse and nonchalantly took care of the blitzing linebacker with ease.

Thomas sent the linebacker flying away from the play, giving Tom Brady plenty of time and space.

Thomas' tape was as good as anybody's I've seen this offseason, and he will likely come at a considerably lower price than Levitre. It's hard to gauge what the Lions think of Thomas considering they picked him up but never made him active. Still, I think of these three candidates, Thomas both offers the most and will be the biggest bargain of the 2013 free-agent guard class.

On Paper: Super Bowl XLVII

2013-02-02T19:14:54Z

Alas, Super Bowl Sunday is nearly here: the pinnacle of the NFL season. By the weekend's end, one team will solidify their legacy among the greatest of all time, and the other will take home the silver medal of nothingness. Unfortunately for Detroit Lions fans, this will be our XLVIIth Super Bowl in a row without a chance at league supremacy. But just because Detroit won't be holding up the Lombardi Trophy yet again doesn't mean we can't give the game the ol' "On Paper" treatment. So, let's close our eyes, pretend Joe Flacco is a skinny Matthew Stafford and delve into the statistical pool of these two teams.

49ers Pass Offense (23rd) vs. Ravens Pass Defense (15th)

49ers Pass Offense

*Alex Smith + Colin Kaepernick

**First game that Kaepernick started

Despite their low ranking, the 49ers pass offense has been extremely efficient. Although they only outgained opponents' averages in passing yards allowed in seven of 18 games, they surpassed passer rating averages in 11 of 18.

Overall, the 49ers rank fourth in passer rating, averaging 101.2. They also rank fourth in completion percentage (66.3 percent), second in yards per attempt (8.1) and tied for first in interceptions thrown (9). The reasoning for their low yardage ranking is simple: the 49ers throw the ball less often than the average team. In fact, only the Seattle Seahawks threw the ball less than San Francisco.

What is particularly interesting about the 49ers aerial attack is how similar the passing offense was under both Kaepernick and Smith. Both had the exact same amount of passing attempts in the regular season, and their statistics are strikingly similar:

Smith: 70.2 percent completion percentage, 7.97 yards per attempt, 13 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 104.1 passer rating.

Kaepernick: 62.4 percent completion percentage, 8.32 yards per attempt, 10 touchdowns, 3 interceptions, 98.3 passer rating.

Of course, Kaepernick brings a huge running threat with him, but we'll get to that in a bit.

Raven Pass Defense

The Ravens pass defense has been a mixed bag all season. They've allowed 10 of 19 opponents to surpass yardage averages while holding 10 of 19 below passer rating averages. However, they've held their last six opponents (including playoffs) at or below passer rating averages and four of six below or at yardage averages.

Looking at the raw statistics reveals little. The Ravens rank 11th in passer rating allowed (80.6), tied for 16th in yards per attempt allowed (7.0) and 12th in completion percentage allowed (60.1 percent). Overall, I think it's fair to call the Ravens pass defense average or slightly above average.

Advantage: 49ers +1. Though the 49ers lack a receiver who can take over the game, the options they do have all provide an important aspect of the game. Randy Moss can give you the occasional big play, Vernon Davis has great hands and can move the sticks and Michael Crabtree is finally starting to emerge as a No. 1 receiver (four 100-yard games in his last seven). The Ravens defense is clearly not as threatening as it used to be, especially without the services of Lardarius Webb for most of the season.

49ers Run Offense (4th) vs. Ravens Run Defense (20th)

49ers Run Offense

**First game Kaepernick started

The 49ers running attack has been consistently solid all season. They outgained opponents' rushing yards allowed averages in 13 of 18 games and yards per carry averages in 11 of 18.

Overall, the 49ers clearly have one of the best running games in the league. They rank third in yards per rushing attempt (5.1), tied for second in rushes of 20+ yards (17) and tied for sixth in rushing TDs (17).

But, once again, there doesn't appear to be much of a Kaepernick difference. Under a Smith-led offense, the 49ers averaged 170 rushing yards/game. Under Kaepernick: 159.

Of course, just because the team hasn't changed much with Kaepernick under center doesn't mean Jim Harbaugh made the wrong decision. If anything, it has proven that Smith is basically obsolete, with Kaepernick being the cheaper, more explosive option.

Raven Run Defense

Again, we see a lot of inconsistencies with the Ravens defense. They've only held six of 19 opponents below their yardage averages and nine below yards per carry averages.

The numbers, however, show that the Ravens defense may be better than the chart suggests. They Ravens rank tied for seventh in yards per carry allowed (4.0) and have allowed the seventh-least amount of rushes of 20+ yards (8).

Still, the Ravens run defense is not at all what it used to be, and it hasn't been very good in the playoffs, either.

Advantage: 49ers +1.5. Again, the 49ers have all the important phases to a successful rushing attack: a consistent workhorse (Frank Gore), a change-of-pace bruiser (LaMichael James) and a mobile quarterback (Kaepernick). The 49ers should be able to run it successfully against the Ravens and I'd be shocked if they didn't gain at least 140 total yards.

Ravens Pass Offense (15th) vs. 49ers Pass Defense (4th)

Ravens Pass Offense

*Flacco + Tyrod Taylor

Again, we see some inconsistencies with the Ravens, but overall, a pretty solid unit. Baltimore has outgained opponents' averages in 10 of 19 games and has surpassed passer rating averages in 10 as well. Lately, Flacco has been on a roll, amassing a passer rating of 100+ in five of his last six games (not including the last week of the regular season, when he only threw 8 passes).

Overall, the Ravens rank 16th in passer rating (86.4), tied for 14th in yards per attempt (7.1) and 19th in completion percentage (59.6 percent). But where the Ravens do the most damage is with big plays. They have the fourth-most passing plays of 40+ yards (12) and fifth-most plays of 20+ yards (62).

49ers Pass Defense

This is the most surprising chart of the preview. The 49ers have held just nine of 18 opponents below yardage averages and only eight below passer rating averages. Even lately, the 49ers have struggled to hold their opponents in check. For a defense that has been called nothing short of dominant, this is a bit shocking to see.

The raw numbers tend to help the 49ers' case, but not completely. They rank sixth in passer rating allowed (78.0), second in yards per attempt allowed (6.1) and 11th in completion percentage allowed (59.4). However, putting those numbers into context helps explain why their chart is so mediocre. The 49ers have played seven of their 18 games against bottom six passing offenses. So their high rankings are very much reflective of their weak opponents.

Still, the 49ers pass defense has to be considered, at the very least, average.

Advantage: Ravens +1. While Flacco has had his struggles this year, he seems to have found his groove and has been playing as well as anybody in January. Combine that with an overrated 49ers pass defense and you have the Ravens' key to win the game. If Flacco continues his current streak of excellent play, he could very well lead the team to victory.

Ravens Run Offense (11th) vs. 49ers Run Defense (4th)

Ravens Run Offense

Just as Flacco is hitting his stride, it appears the Ravens running game has also turned the corner. Overall, Baltimore has outgained opponents' yards per game average in 11 of 19 games (and eight of the last nine) and yards per carry averages in 11 as well. (Interesting to note: the Ravens fired their offensive coordinator after the Redskins game.)

The Ravens rank 12th in yards per carry (4.3) and tied for sixth in rushing TDs (17). However, the Ravens don't possess a home-run threat, totaling only 10 rushes of 20+ yards (tied for 18th).

Bernard Pierce has emerged as the thunder to Ray Rice's lightning. Pierce averaged an impressive 4.9 a carry during the regular season and 6.3 a carry during the playoffs.

49ers Run Defense

The 49ers run defense is the heart of the team. They've held 14 of 18 opponents below rushing yard averages and 13 or 18 below yards per carry averages. Only one team during the entire season was able to significantly outperform (>5 percent improvement) their yards per carry average against the 49ers.

The 49ers are tied for third in yards per carry (3.7) and fourth in rushing TDs allowed (7). They've only allowed 9 rushes of 20+ yards (tied for 10th) and are one of six teams to not allow a rush of 40+ yards. Pretty much any way you put it, the 49ers run defense is dominant.

Advantage: 49ers +0.5. This is by far the most intriguing matchup of the game. The Ravens run offense has been on fire as of late, but the 49ers have been dominant all season long. If the Ravens can manage at least moderate success, it will do wonders for them. Looking at the 49ers' chart, it becomes pretty easy to spot the losses on their schedule (Vikings, Giants, second game against Rams and Seahawks). Run effectively against the 49ers and you're on your way to a win.

Overall:

The 49ers come out with a +2 advantage and have an advantage in three of the four major matchups. However, all is not lost for the Ravens. Most of these advantages are small for the 49ers. The Ravens are also playing some of their best football in the past month. If the Ravens get their running game going, Flacco continues to play well and the pass defense holds up (things the Ravens have done particularly well lately), they have a good shot at taking down the Niners. However, San Francisco has been doing it all year and shows no sign of slowing down. 49ers 31, Ravens 24.

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On Paper: Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears

2012-12-29T20:41:56Z

It's finally here. Week 17. The merciful end to a greatly disappointing season. While there's no salvaging anything this season, the Lions do have an opportunity to play spoiler to their rival. The Chicago Bears sit at 9-6, needing a win and some help to make it to the postseason. Despite their desperation, and the Lions' recent ineptitude, the Bears are a mere three-point favorite coming into Detroit.

Lions Pass Offense (1st) vs. Bears Pass Defense (6th)

Not much has changed all year. The Lions throw the ball a ton, rack up crazy amounts of yards, but are merely average when it comes to efficiency.

One interesting note: Matthew Stafford has yet to have a passer rating of 90+ ever since Titus Young threw his tantrum in the first matchup against the Packers.

The last time the two teams played, the Lions were held to their second lowest yardage total of the season, but they were moderately efficient, outgaining the Bears' season average of passer rating allowed. However, the Lions failed to score any points until the waning moments of the fourth quarter.

The Bears continue to have one of the best pass defenses in the league. After a scorching hot start (holding their first nine opponents below passer rating averages) they've cooled off a bit. However, their regression is really more a reflection of the strength of their opponent. They allowed the Seahawks, Packers and 49ers to torch them through the air, but those three teams have been highly efficient all year.

The Bears held the Lions below Detroit's averages last time the two met, and they sacked Stafford three times.

Player to watch: Julius Peppers. Peppers sacked Stafford once in the last matchup and tallied 2 QB hits. Jeff Backus has always struggled with elite pass rushers and I would expect nothing different Sunday.

Advantage: Bears +1. I suspect the Lions will get their yardage, most of it coming from Calvin Johnson. However, with little other options, Stafford will have to force the ball into tight windows, and the Bears will make him pay at least twice.

Lions Run Offense (23rd) vs. Bears Run defense (9th)

The disappointing running game has been ... disappointing-er as of late. Facing two poor run defenses in the past two weeks, the Lions failed to get anything going. They have now only surpassed yards per carry averages once in the past nine games.

However, in the first meeting between the two teams, the Lions were actually highly efficient running the ball, totaling 99 yards at 5.5 a carry. They found themselves down early in the game, so they didn't have many attempts, but when they did run, they were successful.

The Bears sport an above-average run defense. They've held nine of 15 opponents below their YPC average, and eight of 15 below their yardage average. They are ceding 4.2 a carry, which is only good enough for tied for 13th in the league.

However, where they really hurt you is forcing fumbles. Their 11 forced fumbles are tied for second-best in the league. And that's where they hurt the Lions last matchup. Both Joique Bell and Mikel Leshoure had crucial fumbles that cost the Lions any chance of winning the game.

Player to watch: Charles Tillman. Of all the Bears defenders, Tillman is the most dangerous at forcing turnovers. He has 10 forced fumbles, which is 8 more than anyone on his team and 3 more than anyone in the league.

Advantage: Bears +1. Last matchup provides a little promise for the Lions' running game, and Brian Urlacher looks to be out again this week. However, the Bears defense has shown little decline in Urlacher's absence, and the Lions just don't have the talent to match up with Chicago's defense.

Bears Pass Offense (29th) vs. Lions Pass Defense (14th)

*Jay Cutler + Jason Campbell

**Campbell

Cutler and the Bears' passing attack have been quite underwhelming this year, even with the addition of Brandon Marshall. They have only outgained yardage and passer rating averages in five of 15 games this season.

The Bears rank just 22nd in passer rating (79.4), 23rd in yards per attempt (6.7) and 22nd in completion percentage (59.3 percent). Their pass protection remains very poor, allowing 42 sacks on the season (eighth-most).

The Lions pass defense remains a mystery. They've held just five of 15 below yardage averages and passer rating averages. But prior to last week, they had held their past four opponents to passer ratings well below their averages.

In the previous matchup, the Lions held the Bears pass game in check, holding Cutler to just 150 yards on 31 passing attempts and sacking him 5 times.

Player to watch: Brandon Marshall. This is a pretty lame matchup full of below-average players. The one exception to that is Marshall, who ranks second in receiving yards and third in receiving touchdowns.

Advantage: Lions +0.5. To be honest, I have no idea how this matchup will go. The Bears passing offense is clearly not explosive, but the Lions pass defense has been terribly porous at times this year. Basing my prediction on the previous matchup and the home-field advantage, the Lions squeak out with an edge here.

Bears Run Offense (9th) vs. Lions Run Defense (18th)

After a terrible start, the Bears and Matt Forte have rebounded to respectability in the run game. Still, they've only outgained opponents' yardage averages in seven of 15 games and YPC averages in four of 15.

Overall, the Bears are tied for 14th in YPC (4.2) and tied for 17th in rushing touchdowns (10).

The Lions run defense remains the one bright spot of the 2012 season. They've held 11 of 15 opponents below yardage averages and seven of 15 below yards per carry averages. While they are still ceding a poor 4.5 a carry (tied for 25th), this has been the result of playing a tough schedule more than anything else.

However, in the previous matchup, the Bears had no trouble running the ball against the Lions. Though the Bears' stats are padded by a Cutler scramble of 24 yards, Forte and Michael Bush still combined for 132 yards on 28 carries (4.7 a carry)

Player to watch: Andre Fluellen. What was once thought to be the Lions' deepest position has now succumbed to the injury bug. With Nick Fairley and Sammie Hill sidelined for the season, Fluellen has been called upon to start aside Ndamukong Suh. Fluellen was added to the team just a few weeks ago, and now he's starting. Big task for a big man.

Advantage: Bears +1. Again, I am giving the previous matchup a lot of weight in determining this advantage. But aside from the Bears' ease against the Lions last game, Chicago does seem to have the advantage here. The Lions are short-handed, and Forte has been coming on as of late (averaging 5.4 YPC in the past three weeks).

Off Paper:

Revenge: It was just 12 years ago that Paul Edinger sent the Lions packing, killing their hopes of the postseason with a devastating 54-yard field goal at the end of regulation. The 4-11 Bears had nothing to play for and were 10-point underdogs. The 9-6 Lions just needed a win to get in. Now the Lions have a chance to repay the favor.

Playing for jobs: The Lions have 33 players set to become free agents next year. These players will have their final shot to show their coaches and other teams what they can offer in 2013.

Overall:

The Bears have a +2.5 advantage, including an edge in three of the four matchups. I expect this to be a low-scoring, close matchup. But with the continual mistakes made by nearly every Lions player, it's hard to imagine Detroit keeping it all together long enough to pull out a victory and avenge the 2000 Detroit Lions. Bears 17, Lions 10.

It's been a pleasure writing these previews for you all this year. While this season didn't go as planned, our devotion still reigns supreme. You're all the best.

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On Paper: Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons

2012-12-21T20:14:09Z

The almighty charts and my presence weren't enough for the Detroit Lions to turn around their five-game losing streak against the lowly Arizona Cardinals. This week, the Lions host the 12-2 Atlanta Falcons on "Monday" Night Football. According to Vegas, the prognosis isn't good. The Lions head into Saturday night as 3.5-point underdogs, which is actually quite modest considering the circumstances. Last week, the Falcons dismantled the New York Giants 34-0. But let's break it down.

Lions Pass Offense (1st) vs. Falcons Pass Defense (17th)

While the Lions passing offense has been outstanding at gaining yards, they have been disappointingly inefficient. They have only surpassed an opponent's passer rating allowed average four times all season.

They rank just 21st in passer rating (80.8), 19th in yards per attempt (6.9) and 20th in completion percentage (59.8 percent). It's fair to say at this point that the Lions pass offense is not only non-elite, it's below average. They've taken a huge step back this year and it's a major reason for the Lions' struggles this season.

*Robert Griffin III + Kirk Cousins

The Falcons pass defense isn't particularly scary. They've only held six of 14 opponents below passer rating averages, though they've held seven of 14 below yardage averages. Overall, they've been a very mixed bag. They let team like the Raiders and Panthers (twice) dominate them through the air (though they won those games). But they've held quality passing teams like the Giants, Broncos and Redskins all well below their averages.

The Falcons rank seventh in passer rating allowed (76.9), tied for 20th in yards per attempt allowed (7.4) and 15th in completion percentage allowed (61.1 percent). The good news: Atlanta only has 29 sacks on the season (tied for 20th).

Player to watch: Thomas DeCoud. The 27-year-old safety has netted the Falcons 6 interceptions. He also is second on the team with 8 passes deflected.

Advantage: Falcons +1. The Lions passing attack has taken a big hit with all of the injuries. Last week, Matthew Stafford threw the ball 50 times, and only four were caught by wide receivers not named Calvin Johnson. The Falcons defense isn't that great, but the Lions pass offense has been completely neutralized as of late.

Lions Run Offense (23rd) vs. Falcons Run Defense (24th)

The Lions run offense continues to be below average. They've only outgained yards per carry averages in four of 14 games and yardage averages in five of 14 games.

The Lions average a modest 4.2 a carry (tied for 14th) and gain a first down on 21.8 percent of runs (16th). But, they have struggled to break any big runs this season and Mikel Leshoure's struggles are a big part of that.

The Falcons have struggled all season at stopping the run. Only two opponents have failed to meet their yards per carry average against the Falcons, and only five couldn't reach their average yards. However, the Falcons have been much improved as of late. Only one of their past four opponents outgained their averages in both yards and yards per carry.

Overall, the Falcons are ceding 4.9 a carry (30th) and have given up 14 touchdowns (tied for 26th). The Falcons are particularly prone to giving up the long run. They have given up 7 rushes of 40+ yards (most in the league).

Player to watch: Joique Bell. I think I'm finally on the Joique-should-be-getting-the-bulk-of-the-carries wagon. He's averaging much more per carry and is the only running back with a rush over 20 yards.

Advantage: Lions +1.5. Though the Falcons have been better as of late, for the entire season they've been one of the worst run defenses in the entire league. While the Lions aren't exactly electric on the ground, they've shown they are, at the very least, competent. I expect the Lions to really push the run game on offense, especially with their lack of passing weapons.

Falcons Pass Offense (5th) vs. Lions Pass Defense (11th)

The Falcons pass offense has all the yardage of the Lions pass offense but with all of the efficiency to go with it. They've only been held below averages in three of 14 games in passer rating and in just one of 14 in yardage.

They rank sixth in passer rating (97.5), tied for fourth in yards per attempt (7.8) and first in completion percentage (68.5 percent). Matt Ryan has quietly had another outstanding year. He's fifth in TDs (27) and fourth in ESPN's QBR (74.6). Though he has thrown as many interceptions (14) this season as he has ever in his career, he is still bordering on elite status.

The Lions have actually been surprisingly decent at pass defending in the past four weeks. No team has significantly surpassed their average passer rating against the Lions since their second matchup versus the Vikings. Granted, it hasn't resulted in any wins, but it's still nice to see.

Overall, the Lions rank 17th in passer rating allowed (87.9), tied for 10th in yards per attempt allowed (6.8) and tied for 23rd in completion percentage allowed (63.0 percent). For all the injuries they've incurred, the Lions have actually been a pretty average or slightly below average passing defense.

Player to watch: Falcons pass-catchers. Pick anyone. Julio Jones, Roddy White or Tony Gonzalez. The Falcons have a ton of passing weapons and use them all effectively.

Advantage: Falcons +2.5. The Lions haven't really faced a passing offense like the Falcons this season. The closest they've come is the Packers, but both times they played Green Bay, the Packers were short-handed. The Falcons are basically at full strength on offense, which is big trouble. Chris Houston has done a great job on No. 1 receivers this year, but he can't cover Jones, White and Gonzalez on every play. I've done the math, it's not possible.

Falcons Run Offense (28th) vs. Lions Run Defense (18th)

The Falcons haven't done very much on the ground this year. They've only surpassed yardage and yards per carry averages in three of 14 games this season.

It isn't for a lack of talent. Michael Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers are a great one-two punch on the ground, yet neither is averaging 4.0 a carry. Overall, the team is averaging 3.7 a carry (tied for 27th).

After a strong start to the season, the Lions have struggled against the run as of late. With two of their top three defensive tackles on IR, the Lions are unable to rotate linemen as often as they'd like. Luckily, the Lions still have a good amount of depth there, but the numbers don't lie: The Lions are missing Corey Williams and Nick Fairley.

The Lions are giving up 4.6 a carry (tied for 26th). But much of that is due to their challenging schedule. As evidenced by the chart, they've given up a lot of yards to teams like the Vikings, 49ers and Seahawks, while still holding them below their averages.

Player to watch: Peter Konz. Konz, a rookie RG, was on many Lions fans' wish list for the 2012 draft. He has done a formidable job for the Falcons this season but will be taking on Ndamukong Suh on Saturday. Suh may be having his best season to date (according to teamrankings.com, he ranks seventh in tackles for loss).

Advantage: Lions +0.5. The Falcons won't rely on the running game much, only to keep the Lions defense honest. The Lions are capable of holding the Falcons in check, but they must prevent any big plays on the ground.

Off Paper:

Motivation: The Lions are all but out of any sort of motivation to win a game. A lot of the players are in contract years, so they have motivation to do well individually, but a win won't do much to change anything. The Falcons, however, have yet to clinch a first-round bye.

Pride of Detroit: We'll see if such a thing exists on Saturday. With the nation watching, the Lions and their fans will get a chance to show that they still have pride in the team. After such an awful loss last week, it's easy to see the Lions rolling over in anticipation of the offseason. But if they have any sort of pride in the city of Detroit and their Lions, they'll come out and give it their all.

Overall:

The Falcons have a slight +1.5 advantage, which mirrors the Vegas line. One extra thing I found interesting during my research is the Lions actually rank higher in every statistical category (by yardage) than the Falcons. Of course, yards don't tell the entire story. While the two teams are actually very similar, the biggest difference is the efficiency of the Falcons' passing offense. That can be seen clearly when looking at the points per game (26.5 to 23.6). While those three points a game don't seem like much, think about how close most of the Lions' games have been this season. That's your difference between 4-10 and 8-6 or 7-7. And that's your difference on Saturday: Falcons 31, Lions 27.

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