With the fifth pick of the 2010 Pride of Detroit Community Mock Draft, the Kansas City Chiefs select Tennessee safety Eric Berry.
Here is GRLion's reasoning for the pick:
First of all, my criteria for these picks is a combination of the 3 criteria I had asked Sean about. My picks for the Chiefs are based on a combination of Arrowhead Pride fan opinion, insight into the mind of Scott Pioli and what he might likely do (big thanks to the AP people on this), and my own evaluations of the individual players' skills and how they might fit that.Scott Pioli has a much different philosophy than Jim Schwartz when it comes to drafting. Schwartz believes in taking the "Best Player Available that fits," regardless of position. The only position he puts above the others is QB, as he has said in the past. That's the extent of how far Schwartz will go in terms of "positional value" thinking.......QB, then everybody else. Schwartz also drafts for talent, not need. As he's said in the past, he won't draft by need unless he's only got a couple holes left to fill.
Continued after the jump...
Scott Pioli is much different. His 2 main philosophies are "positional value" (QB, LT, DE) and drafting for need. He also has shown a strong tendency towards frugality and risk aversion in his picks. A player that busts, especially with a high pick, is a waste of draft resources and money. This is also reflected in his comfort in trading down. Pioli likes solid, safe picks, not high risk/high reward types. Like one of the AP people said, Pioli is the "Anti-Al Davis." You'll notice I didn't mention HC Todd Haley. As someone here at POD once said, "it's a bad idea for the GM to draft players that the coach doesn't like and won't play." But Haley seems to be on the same page with Pioli, and willing to work with the philosophies of Pioli and his 2 new Coordinators, Charlie Weis and Romeo Crennel. Pioli is the driving force here. And yes, it really is New England West, according to the AP people. No major differences in philosophy.First we consider positional value. In 2009, Pioli reached for DE Tyson Jackson at #3, which solidified the DE position. This was a "positional value" pick. But it wasn't a high risk/high reward pick. Pioli still stuck to his philosophy of risk aversion. TJ was considered a reach because he was a solid player with a lower ceiling. Chiefs fans are happy with how that pick turned out. Now for the surprises. Chiefs fans at AP said that Glenn Dorsey has done very well in the switch from 4-3 DT to 3-4 DE. The AP people were shocked when I mentioned the Dorsey trade speculation floated here on POD. The opinion of most AP people seemed to be that Dorsey was one of the 3 best players on the defense, he's not going anywhere, and anyone who wants him had better be willing to pay big-time. So both DE spots are filled, and not a need for KC. The Chiefs are also happy at QB with Matt Cassel and Brodie Croyle. QB is not a need. Now here's the second surprise. Many mocks around the internet, including some by famous "experts", have KC taking LT Russell Okung at #5. There's actually very little interest by the AP people in doing that. While some of us at POD thought Brandon Albert was struggling to make the transition to LT and might have to stay at LG, the AP consensus is that Albert is improving rapidly at LT, doing fine, and is a rising star (sort of sounds like SLH at DT). So LT is filled by Albert and is not a need. As you can see, Pioli has already done a great job of getting his players at the key positions of "positional value". The result is that this boils down to more of a purely needs-driven draft for KC this year. We'll be filling holes.The Chiefs have 3 major positions of need, and a number of minor positions of need. Since I still have two 2nd Round picks to use, I won't identify the 3 major needs by name. Got to play it close to the vest, you know. I will list all the needs alphabetically, though. On offense, C, OG, OT-swing, TE-blocking, WR-slot. On defense, ILB, NT, Safety.......and maybe OLB.For the 3 major positions of need, I identified the best player at each position who fit the Chiefs' scheme, with the help of the AP people. Player 1 possibly had more positional value than the others in this particular scheme, but he was the riskiest pick, a very high risk/high reward type who might be too risky for Pioli to take this high. This player has been mocked anywhere from ......reaching to get him at #5, to having him fall to #36. This guy is a big unknown. There is a strong minority opinion at AP for reaching for this guy at #5, but even his supporters admit it's a big reach and would prefer to trade down. For this mock, I don't have the option of trading down, so I have to make the best pick for the Chiefs at #5. Player 2 has an ongoing medical condition that could affect his play. Most mocks have him as a mid-1st Rounder. Interestingly, he's rarely mentioned in most mocks at #5, and his name almost never comes up at POD. But he's definitely one of the 3 names mentioned most often by the AP people. If healthy, he's a solid player who could be a beast, but he has less talent and no more positional value than Player 3. Player 3 has the most talent, the most upside, and the least risk. He's the best player and the safest pick both, and he fills one of the 3 positions of major need. He's also the popular favorite of most people at the AP site, some of whom are quite enthusiastic in supporting this player.Now is a good time to look back at the recent history of Scott Pioli picks. In addition to the 2009 Tyson Jackson pick at #3, Pioli had one other draft where he had a high pick and couldn't trade down. In 2008, Pioli took LB Jerod Mayo at #10. He's a smart, disciplined, talented player and leader who fits the scheme and is already a defensive captain in New England. This picks shows a couple things. The TJ pick was a "positional value pick" at a position of need. The Mayo pick wasn't a "positional value" pick, but it was definitely a position of need at the time. This was purely a "needs pick". And like TJ, Mayo was a safe pick with very low Bust Potential. There's that risk aversion philosophy at work again. He was also a smart LB, which Pioli likes, so he definitely fit the scheme. This year's pick definitely looks like a Mayo-type pick......a talented player with low Bust Potential who isn't a "positional value" pick, but who plays a position of major need.So in a draft where Pioli is drafting purely for need rather than positional value, the best player, the safest pick, who also fits their scheme for one of their 3 major needs is Player 3.The Arrowhead Pride's most popular player for this pick is Player 3.My evaluation is that Player 3 is one of the 2 best players in the draft, and he fits the Chiefs' scheme.The Chiefs take Player 3 -- Eric Berry.
Check out the 2010 Pride of Detroit Community Mock Draft tracker for a look at all of the picks.
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