Detroit Lions have best odds to receive first overall pick in 2016

According to Football Outsiders' advanced statistics, the Detroit Lions are the most likely team to receive the first overall pick in the 2016 NFL draft. Aaron Schatz explains (subscription needed for entire article):

It's not because Detroit is the worst team in the league; our ratings currently put them ahead of Houston and San Francisco. But at 1-6, the Lions are tied for the NFL's worst record, and their schedule gets tougher the rest of the way, partly because of the split between home and road games. Detroit plays five of its last nine games away from home. Three games that they could win -- against Kansas City, New Orleans and Chicago -- all fall on the road, hurting their chances in our simulation.

Of course, that ignores the fact that the Lions' "road" game against the Chiefs is in London, but the point still stands: the Lions' most winnable games left on the schedule are to be played away from Ford Field.

Interestingly enough, the Lions lead this race by a large margin. Football Outsiders gives the Lions a 23.5 percent chance of receiving the pick, while the second closest teams, the Houston Texans, only have a 13.9 percent chance.

While I agree that things look very grim for the Lions right now, I don't think they end up at the bottom of the league at the season's end. I doubt they'll pull themselves out of the top five, but the team has way too much talent to end up the decisively worst team in the NFL. And who knows, maybe Jim Bob Cooter can pull the team out of offensive purgatory.