:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/48446809/usa-today-8544742.0.jpg)
Back on Nov. 1, the Detroit Lions were 1-7 and in line to pick first overall in the 2016 NFL Draft. Since then, the Lions have rolled off five wins in seven games and have slid all the way down to pick 13. Here's a look at the current draft order according to Dan Kadar:
1. Tennessee Titans: 3-12 (.492 strength of schedule)
2. Cleveland Browns: 3-12 (.536 SOS)
3. San Diego Chargers: 4-11 (.523 SOS)
4. Dallas Cowboys: 4-11 (.529 SOS)
5. San Francisco 49ers: 4-11 (.552 SOS)
6. Jacksonville Jaguars: 5-10 (.471 SOS)
7. Miami Dolphins: 5-10 (.475 SOS)
8. Baltimore Ravens: 5-10 (.506 SOS)
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 6-9 (.483 SOS)
10. New York Giants: 6-9 (.492 SOS)
11. New Orleans Saints: 6-9 (.508 SOS)
12. Philadelphia Eagles: 6-9 (.513 SOS)
13. Detroit Lions: 6-9 (.536 SOS)
14. Chicago Bears: 6-9 (.544 SOS)
15. Indianapolis Colts: 7-8 (.498 SOS)
16. Buffalo Bills: 7-8 (.510 SOS)
17. Oakland Raiders: 7-8 (.511 SOS)
18. St. Louis Rams: 7-8 (.527 SOS)
19. Atlanta Falcons: 8-7 (.471 SOS)
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: 9-6 (.511 SOS)
The Lions can no longer mathematically finish with a top five pick. The bottom five teams in the league will finish with no a record no better than 5-11, while the Lions already have six wins. On the other end of the spectrum, the Lions will be picking no later than 18, as they will not be able to reach the Atlanta Falcons, who are 8-7.
Looking ahead to next week, if the Lions defeat the Bears, they'll fall at least one spot (below the Bears), and could potentially fall all the way to 18, depending on how the the rest of the 7-8 teams finish the season. The Lions have a harder strength of schedule than all of the 7-8 teams, so with a win in Chicago, they'd likely fall below every 7-8 team that loses their season finale.
If the Lions lose at Soldier Field, there's no guarantee they'll jump much in the draft order. They are very unlikely to jump any teams that are currently 5-10, because they are so far ahead in strength of schedule. However, they'll jump at least one spot, as the 6-9 Eagles play the 6-9 Giants in Week 17. The very best scenario if the Lions lose in Week 17 is the Saints win against the Falcons, the Buccaneers defeat the Panthers and the Giants and Eagles tie. In that scenario, the Lions would pick ninth.