I’m an impatient fan. That sounds a bit crazy, being a Detroit Lions fan, as we’ve been waiting for pretty much all of our adult lives for a championship. Due to that impatience and a skill for math, I’ve developed a neat little tool to project out player stats over the course of the rest of the season, assuming they play in every game and play at their present per game averages. A bit of a disclaimer, the quarterback and receiving numbers were calculated separately, so those aspiring mathletes among you may notice they differ. I was going to do a market share projection, but that’s for later in the season (Next week, when the math is easier).
Quarterback: MVP Candidate?
The answer to the above question is yes, but I’ll let his numbers speak for themselves. We’ve already heard about how his pace since last season is nearly historic, but the pace he’s set over the first seven games of 2016 are pretty noteworthy in their own right. Stafford is presently sitting at 1,914 yards, 15 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions. He’s already on pace to shatter several of his career records and put any future Lions quarterbacks in the unenviable position of having to shine in a very long shadow. Here’s how he’ll look if his per game pace continues.
Matthew Stafford
Cmp |
Att |
Cmp% |
Y/A |
Rate |
375 |
551 |
68.1 |
7.9 |
105.6 |
Yds |
TD |
Int |
Sk |
Yds |
4375 |
34 |
9 |
41 |
229 |
Games |
Rush |
Yd |
Y/A |
TD |
16 |
48 |
288 |
6.0 |
0 |
Running Backs: No trend setters, no standouts
This is a pretty sad bunch when you take into account the amount of injuries they’ve had to endure and the line they’ve had to run behind. The current stats bear that out as the leading rusher is Theo Riddick with only 50 rushes for 171 yards and just a single TD. Second on that list is Matthew Stafford, so the rushing offense is in a bad way. It doesn’t look a whole lot prettier when the season finishes.
Theo Riddick
Yards |
Rushes |
Y/A |
TD |
479 |
140 |
3.42 |
3 |
Rec Yards |
Catches |
Y/R |
TD |
532 |
73 |
7.3 |
8 |
Games |
Targets |
Catch % |
|
14 |
90 |
81% |
|
Zach Zenner
Yards |
Rushes |
Y/A |
TD |
302 |
92 |
3.28 |
3 |
Rec Yards |
Catches |
Y/R |
TD |
179 |
14 |
12.8 |
0 |
Games |
Targets |
Catch % |
|
14 |
20 |
70% |
|
Dwayne Washington
Yards |
Rushes |
Y/A |
TD |
247 |
59 |
4.19 |
3 |
Rec Yards |
Catches |
Y/R |
TD |
16 |
7 |
2.3 |
0 |
Games |
Targets |
Catch % |
|
13 |
7 |
100% |
|
Justin Forsett
Yards |
Rushes |
Y/A |
TD |
209 |
72 |
2.90 |
0 |
Rec Yards |
Catches |
Y/R |
TD |
83 |
11 |
7.5 |
0 |
Games |
Targets |
Catch % |
|
11 |
17 |
65% |
|
Receivers: A dominant bunch
Unlike the running backs, you could make a much better case for dominance with the Detroit Lions receiving corps. While drops are not recorded at Pro-Football-Reference, where I gather my data, this group would look pretty solid even if I had added that negative statistic. Marvin Jones has gelled superbly with Matthew Stafford, while Golden Tate is finally coming into his own and Anquan Boldin has been a welcome addition. Eric Ebron, when healthy, has been a very reliable target and is poised for even more work when he returns.
Marvin Jones
Rec Yards |
Catches |
Y/R |
TD |
1,424 |
75 |
18.99 |
9 |
Targets |
Catch % |
Y/Tgt |
TTD |
119 |
63.0% |
11.97 |
9 |
Rush Yards |
Rushes |
YPC |
TD |
7 |
2 |
3.5 |
0 |
Golden Tate
Rec Yards |
Catches |
Y/R |
TD |
896 |
71 |
12.62 |
2 |
Targets |
Catch % |
Y/Tgt |
TTD |
121 |
58.7% |
7.40 |
2 |
Rush Yards |
Rushes |
YPC |
TD |
7 |
14 |
0.50 |
0 |
Eric Ebron
Rec Yards |
Catches |
Y/R |
TD |
683 |
59 |
11.58 |
3 |
Targets |
Catch % |
Y/Tgt |
TTD |
81 |
72.8% |
8.43 |
3 |
Rush Yards |
Rushes |
YPC |
TD |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Anquan Boldin
Rec Yards |
Catches |
Y/R |
TD |
622 |
73 |
8.52 |
9 |
Targets |
Catch % |
Y/Tgt |
TTD |
94 |
77.7% |
6.62 |
9 |
Rush Yards |
Rushes |
YPC |
TD |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Andre Roberts
Rec Yards |
Catches |
Y/R |
TD |
112 |
11 |
10.18 |
2 |
Targets |
Catch % |
Y/Tgt |
TTD |
18 |
61.1% |
6.22 |
2 |
Rush Yards |
Rushes |
YPC |
TD |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Overall
That would be a great season statistically for Stafford and his receiving targets, but would be a clear indictment against both the offensive line and the running backs. These two groups continue to underperform, but the Lions have gotten away with it so far. Will they continue to for the rest of the season, or will that beating begin to wear on Stafford’s newfound dominance? Let us know in the comments what you think of these statistical projections or if you think any of these players will change course for better or worse in the final half of the season.