It takes one week to get torched. True enough, I went to a losing record with one stupid little week, and it’s indicative of a lot. Jeremy keeps me in, and I lose. I’m blaming him for this loss. You should too, if you cared about me; you don’t though.
Over the week we were urging our mutual friend at Pride Of Detroit, who is absolutely not Ryan Mathews, to cut out at the right time and take his winnings home. He didn’t, he wanted to keep going. He barely avoided disaster and I think we all learned valuable non-lessons from the matter. You could, otherwise, just keep moving like a shark, because if you stop you die, but I don’t even know where I’m going with this. I hate filling these out before getting to the picks.
Anyway, I don’t have anything pithy to say about as many games this time. Pithy thoughts are for winners, and people with more time on their hands to write very long columns about NFL picks. Let’s get you what you want, you degenerates.
Current record: 25-26-1
Pittsburgh -3 at Buffalo
The sharps seem to like the over, and with Buffalo on its way out the Steelers seem the right choice here if the score gets run up. I know I’m breaking my rule about home dogs a bit here but the numbers like Pittsburgh’s offense far better than the Bills’ defense.
Denver +1.5 at Tennessee
I’m glad we got the Titans out of our system. Denver’s the right side here, regardless of whether it’s Lynch or Siemian. The key matchup I care about is a quarterback like Marcus Mariota against that monster of a Denver defense.
Philadelphia +2 vs. Washington
I didn’t think, early in the year, that we’d be talking about Philadelphia on its way out of the playoff picture, but if they are going to bow out they’re going to cut a fierce one. I can’t fade them at home, especially not as a dog.
Arizona -2 at Miami
I’m violating my home dog thoughts again but I can’t trust Miami. What the hell was that last week? Arizona opened as a +2.5 road dog, but I think that there’s still a little value to squeeze out of this tomato.
San Diego PICK at Carolina
I hate this game so much and I don’t care for picks. I’ve never cared for picks. The point of doing spreads is for fun and records, while totals are where the money is at. Money lines are okay but only if you’re getting decent odds. Pick’ems? No good odds, no fun spreads. C’mon man.
Cincinnati -5 at Cleveland
I can’t trust betting against Cleveland because I know that damn win is coming any day now, but I also can’t take their side either.
Detroit -7.5 vs. Chicago
Sure, why not? I’ll call my shot. The touchdown-plus-hook has been my nemesis but I think Detroit can handle their business pretty well.
Houston +6.5 at Indianapolis
Minnesota -3.5 at Jacksonville
Always fade the Jaguars.
Jets +3 at San Francisco
I know they got their brakes beaten off and Bryce Petty is starting for them at quarterback, but it’s the 49ers, who also happened to bench their quarterback. I think in a pinch I’ll take the slightly less hapless team plus points.
Green Bay +3 vs. Seattle
I want to believe, Seattle, but I’m going to err on the side of caution. And yes, if you’re a Lions fan you’re rooting for Seattle. Don’t get greedy thinking about a second seed bye—not that there’s anything intrinsically thinking about it, mind you, because you are just a fan and not a player of any team and thus have zero bearing on what actually happens. Sports leagues have really played this idea over the years that the fans matter in some occult way—home field advantage played up especially—but the truth is you’re just a disposable customer, a number on a spreadsheet. If you think for a second the billionaires who run these teams give a damn about you or think your contributions or valuable, you’re playing yourself worse than the people who thought Donald Trump was going to bring back the Carrier jobs. Don’t be a mark.
Atlanta -5.5 at Los Angeles
Rams suck, next game.
Dallas -3.5 at Giants
I’m with Ryan: the Giants are frauds. I dislike having the hook but I’ll keep riding Dallas. I don’t expect the Giants to sweep the series and I’m a believer in revenge games to a degree; Dallas is good enough that it’s hard to fade them, even if the number isn’t that good.
New Orleans +2 at Tampa Bay
I think it’s finally time to get off Tampa Bay. I love them but this line is all kind of fakakta. New Orleans is better than they looked against the Lions; it’s going to be hard to expect a second game of pure unadulterated filth from Drew Brees and an anemic offense. That they’re catching two points helps matters as well, and I’m sure everyone is seeing what they can get on totals.
Baltimore +6.5 at New England
Baltimore is a tough nut to figure. Nevertheless, if I’m catching enough to cover everything inside a touchdown, I think I’ll have to take the Ravens against a New England team that has looked good, but not good enough to blow out other good teams.