NFL picks against the spread Week 13: Gambling through the mall

The holiday season is here, nonstop Christmas music until your head bursts and the demand to spend, spend, spend keeps coming around. I won’t blame you if you give in, but there’s a way to make the necessary money so you don’t go in the red buying the Super GizmoDeath 9000 or the X-Box Buy-This-One-Too. Gamble it all, baby.

Current record: 22-15-1

New Orleans -6 vs. Lions

Nah, y’all. The public is on the dog, which is a rare occurrence, but the wiseguys and the experts are on the Saints. I’m with them. The total is totally toxic in this game at 53.5, but it’s an indicator folks are thinking shootout, so margins can be finicky. Still, the betting is riding on Drew Brees. In truth, I’d avoid this line anyway if you’re a Lions fan, never bet against your own team.

Houston +6.5 at Green Bay

This line has moved about three points since open. Value is off Green Bay and onto the Texans, even if they’re without Jadeveon Clowney. There’s still too many faults on this Green Bay team to enjoy any of the belief that they’re back. This goes for the entire season to boot; even in the weird occurrence they manage to take the NFC North crown (in which scenario I will go drown in a bottle of applejack) they will still get throttled down the line. Like the Lions defense, you can’t paste over the faults just with a few wins.

Philadelphia +2 at Cincinnati

I don’t think the Eagles are coming apart. Wentz is coming down to Earth with interceptions, but there’s nothing about the Bengals offense that gives me any belief they can competently put together a game worth taking them on.

Miami +3.5 at Baltimore

Miami’s won six straight but there’s not a lot of teams on that docket I consider to be that great. On the other hand, Baltimore isn’t that great either. With the temperature fading I’m leaning towards a strong run game and defense from the Dolphins, and with this game on the right side of a field goal hook I’m feeling better about this game than when I first looked at it to start the week.

Atlanta -4 vs. Kansas City

I’ve said repeatedly that the Chiefs are a mirage. I’ll keep holding to that against Matt Ryan, who has been playing out of his mind so far this year.

Denver -3.5 at Jacksonville

Not much to say here. The Jags are bad, but the line is attached to that awful hook. But I won’t trust the other side. No reason to. I’m frankly pretty well shocked that Gus Bradley hasn’t been fired like two years ago. Maybe he was, but our space-time continuum bent in an odd manner and we’re all living in a hellscape dimension; it would explain a great deal about a few other things that have taken place since.

Chicago +2.5 vs. San Francisco

God why am I even doing this.

Buffalo +3 at Oakland

Oakland is a funny little team. I don’t think there’s another team in the AFC I’m rooting for more than the silver and black but I worry every week that there’s imperfections and pitfalls waiting for them. After their last two games, the drubbing of Denver seems like a distant cry, and it won’t get any better against a Buffalo team that’ll have Sammy Watkins and LeSean McCoy.

Giants +6.5 at Pittsburgh

The Giants have a better defense by the numbers than they’re getting credit for. Some of the sharps aren’t ready to fade Pittsburgh. I’m too drawn in by the fact that this line is so inflated. There’s no reason for it to be this high, and maybe I’m buying into a trap but I’ll bite since I’m desperate.

Tampa Bay +3.5 at San Diego

I’m just gonna keep riding Tampa Bay until the sky falls and cracks my head. There’s no reason to doubt a hot Jameis Winston and Mike Evans combo in 70 degree San Diego weather.

Washington +2.5 at Arizona

I’ll take another east coast road dog on the west coast. I don’t understand the Cardinals slump given what the numbers and sharps think (they’re split on this game) but I’m not ready to back them after watching how they struggled against the Falcons.

Carolina +7.5 at Seattle

I don’t know. North of a touchdown, it’s hard for me to take the Panthers, even as their souls are snatched away and taken into some forgotten realm of pain. They’ve had a string of close losses that make a touchdown-plus-hook line impossible to fade, not to mention the Seahawks aren’t the juggernauts at home they were of yesteryear.

Jets +1.5 vs Indianapolis

Why is this on “Monday Night Football”? Who put this here?