Each year, Over The Cap projects which teams will receive compensatory selections and which rounds they will receive them in. They are well known for their accuracy. SB Nation's New York Jets blog, Gang Green Nation, did a study on OTC's comp. pick projections from last year and here's what they found:
Correct team and round: 26/33 (79%)
Correct team and wrong round: 5/33 (15%)
Complete miss: 2/33 (6%)
As you can see, their calculations are very respectable. Which makes this next part tough to swallow.
The Detroit Lions are currently projected to receive zero compensatory picks in next year's draft. Zilch. If you take a closer look, it makes sense. The Lions have gained more unrestricted free agents than they've lost, with Isa-Abdul Quddus being the only qualifying UFA that they lost to free agency and five UFAs coming in.
Obviously, these calculations aren't 100 percent set in stone, but it looks very unlikely that the Lions will receive a compensatory pick next year unless they travel back in time and let some players go earlier. For more information on how Over The Cap determines their comp. pick projections, click here.