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NFL Week 11 picks against the spread: Holy crap, the AFC is bad

The AFC has horrible quarterbacks and is nearly unwatchable.

Houston Texans v Los Angeles Ram Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

For the third week in a row, I’ve finished with a winning record. In fact, my record against the spread has been a wildly impressive 27-12 over that time period. It almost makes me believe this gambling thing is actually winnable, but, of course, that isn’t true at all. The house always wins. This is your weekly reminder not to gamble on sports.

Anyways, I’ve catapulted a single game outside of the Pride of Detroit top 10, which means y’all should probably start paying attention to these picks. Here are the standings through 10 weeks.

Onto this week’s picks:

Titans +7 over STEELERS

Pittsburgh is coming off a huge scare against the Colts last week. In fact, the Steelers haven’t looked all that convincing against a lot of teams this year. They notoriously play down to their competition, which makes these points too tempting not to take.

The Titans’ 6-3 record is a bit misleading, as they’ve simply just beaten up on bad teams, but they’re healthy, they’re adequate, and Thursday games are always wacky. This should remain close.

Lions-Bears

Check back Friday.

Jaguars -8.5 over BROWNS

Don’t be fooled by Cleveland’s solid performance against the Lions last week, they are going to fall back down to reality HARD this week. The Jaguars defense is going to hold this poor offense under 10 points. While Blake Bortles will struggle to put up many points against an underrated Browns defense, I suspect DeShone Kizer will turn the ball over enough for Jacksonville to get some favorable field position.

Ravens -1 over PACKERS

Well, this is troubling. I’m already taking the road team in the first three games here, but I’m just not buying that the “Pack are Back.” This is still a team that hasn’t scored over 23 points since Aaron Rodgers was injured. The Ravens have been wildly inconsistent, but they’re coming off a bye and should have it together long enough to pick up this road win.

Buccaneers (even) over DOLPHINS

Never have I seen a team still very much in the playoff picture look like they’ve given up like Miami did on “Monday Night Football” this week. The Dolphins have looked pathetic since trading Jay Ajayi. They’ve lost three straight and Jay Cutler looks as dispassionate as ever.

The Bucs are equally screwed, but at least they showed signs of life last week against the Jets.

VIKINGS -1 over Rams

I know there are a lot of people in Detroit that doubt how good the Vikings are, but I’m not one of them. They’re one of the most balanced teams between their offense and defense. They’ve got a decent running game, a duo of wide receivers that may be best in the league and a swarming defense.

While just about all of those things can be said about the Rams, I just haven’t bought into them yet. It’s extremely rare for a team to make such a huge turnaround in one offseason, even if they’ve overhauled their entire coaching staff.

Washington +9.5 over Saints

I hate New Orleans betting lines. If I were a gambling man, I would stay the hell away from these games. Remember the Lions game? The final score of that game could have finished with a final score difference of anywhere between three at 35 points.

That’s what happens when you’ve got a high-scoring offense. Washington will lose this game, but I’m guessing they’ll score enough garbage time touchdowns to make this one look closer than it actually was.

Chiefs -11.5 over GIANTS

Kansas City has had a week to figure out what the hell went wrong over the past four games in which they’ve lost three. I think they’ll come out a lot like they did at the beginning of the season and beat up a horrible Giants team that couldn’t even stay competitive against an 0-9 49ers team last week.

Cardinals (even) over TEXANS

Tom Savage vs. Blaine Gabbert. I hope this game finishes 0-0.

CHARGERS -4.5 over Bills

The Bills are benching Tyrod Taylor for fifth-round rookie—and apparently not Elaine’s boss—Nathan Peterman. It’s a desperate move that’s bound to blow up in Buffalo’s face. I’m totally here for that. Even the Chargers, without a home in Los Angeles, won’t blow this.

Bengals +2.5 over BRONCOS

Holy cow, the AFC is bad. Look at the quarterbacks starting this week:

  • Ben Roethlisberger
  • Marcus Mariota
  • Blake Bortles
  • DeShone Kizer
  • Joe Flacco
  • Jay Cutler
  • Alex Smith
  • Tom Savage
  • Philip Rivers
  • Nathan Peterman
  • Brock Osweiler
  • Andy Dalton
  • Tom Brady
  • Derek Carr

Matthew Stafford would start over at least 12 of these guys, maybe everyone except Brady. What a horrible, stupid conference. I wish the Lions were in it.

Patriots -7 over RAIDERS

The Patriots are hitting their stride and the Raiders are a bad team masquerading as team still in the playoff race. They’re going to finish 7-9 at best—mostly because I picked them to make the Super Bowl this year.

Eagles -3 over COWBOYS

Ezekiel Elliott has given up. Sean Lee will reportedly miss a few weeks. This one is a gimme. Dallas will need to somehow keep their head above water in the next few weeks without some of their best players. Fortunately for them, they’ve got three straight home games and after Week 11, their next four opponents have losing records.

SEAHAWKS -2.5 over Falcons

I really think the Falcons are the better team here, but the conditions are perfect for Seattle: At CenturyLink, on “Monday Night Football.”

Adrian Clayborn had an amazing six-sack game last week, and Seattle has problem on their offensive line, but the Seahawks have that damn field cursed on Monday nights. IT WAS A BATTED BALL, YOU JERKS!