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Week 10 NFL picks against the spread: It’s not personal, it’s business

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No more games. Time to get serious with these Week 10 picks.

Chicago Bears v Green Bay Packers Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images

Last week was a fall back to reality. After my unreal 12-1 week, I went just 7-5 in my Adam Sandler-themed picks last week. Not too bad, but still just outside the Pride of Detroit’s top 10. Though my 66-61 overall record is just two away from cracking the list. Take a look.

Huizenburg and @Choppiness are pulling away from the crowd here. I only say this to forever jinx them.

Let’s get onto this week’s picks. No silly theme this week. It’s not personal, it’s strictly business.

Seahawks -5.5 over CARDINALS

I’ve tagged Seattle as a fraud since the beginning of the year. Their defense isn’t as feared as it once was, and they still have no running game. That being said, this is the time of year that they always seem to turn it around, and the Cardinals are the most fraudulent 4-4 team, especially with no Carson Palmer or David Johnson. Seattle wins by two touchdowns.

Saints -2.5 over BILLS

Uh oh. I’ve kicked things off by taking two road favorites. This is going to be a long week. I feel like this one in particular could come back to bite me. The Saints are on a six-game winning streak, but a road trip to Buffalo could end this. Unfortunately, my brain has yet to adjust to the fact that the Bills may actually be good. Their loss to the Jets set back that process a few weeks.

BEARS -5 over Packers

The Packers are done and I couldn’t be any happier. The scary part, however, is that if the Bears win on Sunday, that sets up a Week 11 game against the Lions that is essentially for second place in the NFC North. And Chicago still has games against the 49ers, Bengals and Browns on their schedule...

Lions at Browns - Come back Friday

TITANS -4.5 over Bengals

Andy Dalton is an enigma.

First two weeks: 0 TDs, 4 INTs, 47.2 passer rating
Next three games: 7 TDs, 2 INTs, 116.2 passer rating
Last three games: 4 TDs, 2 INTs, 84.3 passer rating

The Titans have an okay defense, so it’s time for Bad Andy to show up.

COLTS +11.5 over Steelers

Jacoby Brissett has been quietly improving in Indianapolis week by week. There’s no way there will be a quarterback controversy next year when if Andrew Luck comes back next year, but over his last five starts Brissett has completed 62.2 percent of his passes for a respectable 7.2 yards per attempt and an 88.4 passer rating.

He’ll struggle some more against a swarming Steelers defense, but this won’t be the blowout it appears on paper.

BUCCANEERS +1 over Jets

Do you believe in Fitzmagic? I do. No Mike Evans? No problem. The bearded wonder (who is currently beardless) will start raising questions in Tampa whether Jameis Winston is the long-term answer after all.

The Jets are better than advertised, but it’s only a matter of time before they go full Jets.

Vikings (even) over WASHINGTON

Lions fans are desperately hoping for the Vikings to falter down the stretch here, but I don’t think it starts this Sunday. Washington is riding high after an emotional win over Seattle, but they’re ultimately fool’s gold. The Vikings are coming in relatively healthy after a bye, and should take this one fairly easily.

JAGUARS -4 over Chargers

These are the two most unpredictable teams in the NFL. But Jaguars defense + Philip Rivers = turnover city. Give me the home team.

RAMS -12.5 over Texans

It’s a shame. I probably would have taken the Texans straight up if Deshaun Watson was playing in this game. But Tom Savage is god awful, and the Rams defense is going to sack him no less than 40 times on Sunday.

But let’s give credit to the Rams, too. They’re scoring a league-high 32.9 points per game. Hate how high this line is, but I think the Rams could put up a 40-burger again, considering all of the likely Texans turnovers.

Cowboys +2.5 over FALCONS

As I’m writing this, I literally have no idea whether Ezekiel Elliott will play or not. There’s apparently some sort of hearing today to decide whether they should delay the next appeal for December’s appeal, in the hopes that they can finally get to September’s appeal, before finally coming to a decision on 2018’s appeal. The NFL is incredibly stupid.

Giants (even) over 49ERS

San Francisco now hates Laken Tomlinson. They also hate football fans, as they decided the world needs more C.J. Beathard, giving newly acquired Jimmy Garoppolo another week to serve as backup. Why am I still writing about this stupid game no one cares about? If you’re actually betting on this game, please seek help. I’m actually not kidding. Here’s a list of Gamblers Anonymous numbers to call in your area.

Patriots -8.5 over BRONCOS

The Patriots are coming off a bye. The Broncos are on a four-game losing streak in which they’ve lost each game by at least 10 points (including a 13-point loss to the Giants... at home). Easy money (but don’t gamble).

Dolphins +10 over PANTHERS

The Monday night matchup between two teams that sold key pieces during the trade deadline. I don’t quite understand why the line is so high in this game. Miami isn’t playing horribly, and they nearly picked up a win last week over Raiders last week. The Panthers are rolling—and are at home—but I think Miami’s defensive line will give Cam Newton some trouble and keep this one fairly close.