Week 4 NFL picks against the spread: NFC North FIGHT

Last week, I cautioned everyone, including myself, that I was picking a dangerous amount of road favorites and disaster would follow. I was mostly right, as it was a wacky week of football. I managed to keep my head above water with a 7-8-1 record with my picks, keeping my overall record still in the positive.

My 24-21 record is good enough to technically be in the top 10 in the Pride of Detroit Pick’em league, but more importantly, I’m now in striking distance of first place, just two wins away. Here’s a look at the standings:

Onto this week’s picks

Thursday

Bears +7 vs. PACKERS

In order to play on “Thursday Night Football” teams must agree to make sure something weird and horrible will happen. Last week, the Rams and 49ers combined for 800 points. The week before that, the Texans and Bengals combined for 2 points.

This week, the Packers’ top two offensive tackles are doubtful, and the Bears have a defensive line that can exploit this. I think Green Bay still wins, but Chicago will keep this one close late.

Saints -2.5 vs. DOLPHINS

Any team that loses handily to the 2017 New York Jets should be expected to lose every other game by at least four touchdowns. Who knew the Jay Cutler experiment wasn’t going to work out in Miami?

FALCONS - 9.5 vs. Bills

I hate taking favorites of more than a touchdown, but Atlanta at home is scary. A high-scoring offense like the Falcons can result in a big score margin, even if the game is close. Hell, the Lions beat the Falcons by three points last week, but because they’re such a high scoring team, the final score actually shows Atlanta winning by four.

BROWNS +3 vs. Bengals

Do I really need to explain this pick? It’s two 0-3 AFC teams. Both teams are terrible and so I literally flipped a coin. Let’s go, home dawgs.

Rams +7.5 vs. COWBOYS

I’m going to pay for it, but I’m buying into the Rams right now. Last week, I called them potential NFC West contenders. Well, the Cardinals, Seahawks and 49ers are a combined 2-7.

The Cowboys are good, but they aren’t as good as last year. The Rams will keep this one within a touchdown and could even win it outright.

Lions at VIKINGS

PICK COMING FRIDAY. LEAVE ME ALONE.

PATRIOTS -10 vs. Panthers

The Patriots and big betting lines go together like lamb and tuna fish. With New England, they’re either going to blow out their opponent or inexplicably lose to them.

The Panthers are going through some serious offensive issues this year, and although the Patriots aren’t exactly world-beaters on defense, Tom Brady will easily win an arms race with Cam Newton.

Jaguars -3 vs. JETS

#TeamCatBrotherhood. Our friends at Big Cat Country make the best preview videos around. Any time I pick them this year, I’ll just be linking to their preview as my justification:

Steelers -2.5 vs. RAVENS

Both the Steelers and Ravens suffered embarrassing losses to the Bears and Jaguars respectively. The Steelers, however, have at least shown me something this year, handling the Vikings. The Ravens beat the Bengals and Browns, or, in other words, had two extra preseason games. Steelers rebounding in a big way this week.

Titans (even) vs. TEXANS

Deshaun Watson is the MAN. The Texans nearly took down the Patriots on their home field. But I’m still salty over their flat performance in their home opener against Jaguars.

The Titans, on the other hand, are a severely underrated team. I think they run away with the AFC South.

49ers +7.5 vs. CARDINALS

The 49ers are the best 0-3 team in the league, which I guess could technically be construed as a compliment. They nearly beat both the Seahawks and the Rams, so why wouldn’t they keep it close against their third straight NFC West foe? It’s not like the Cardinals have proven anything in three weeks.

Eagles (even) vs. CHARGERS

Okay, I lied. The Chargers are the best 0-3 team in the league, but I said that other thing like 50 words ago. Quit living in the past.

Well, guess what? The Chargers are also going to be the best 0-4 team in the league. I like the Eagles. They are the least repulsive team in the NFC East and despite their fans being based in Philadelphia. That’s how bad the NFC East is.

Okay, you caught me. I haven’t watched either of these teams play and I have no idea who will win this one.

Giants +3 vs. BUCCANEERS

On Wednesday, I said I think people need to pump the brakes on the Jameis Winston hype. Commenter Gigatron9003BucTroll, who’s a Tampa fan, completely agreed with me. Therefore, I’m now a Bucs expert and I think they’ve been horrible overrated all year. The Giants defense is going to force at least three turnovers this week.

BRONCOS -2.5 vs. Raiders

Which team will rebound from a bad Week 3 loss? The Broncos, who were downed by the Bills in Buffalo, or the Raiders, who barely put up a fight against Washington on Sunday night?

I like both teams and think this team could have huge implications for an extremely competitive division, so give me the home team.

Colts +14 vs. SEAHAWKS (SNF)

The Colts are bad, but Jacoby Brissett is good. The Seahawks are also bad, but winning at CenturyLink is impossible, especially in prime time. Still, Seattle failed to score 14 points in two of their three games, so this line looks horribly inflated.

CHIEFS -7 vs. Washington

I will buy all of the Chiefs stock you have. ALL OF IT. Kansas City has had a great NFL team for the past few years, and this looks like the most complete of them all. I’m just still mad that Eric Berry won’t be along for the ride. Achilles injuries are the worst.