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MathBomb Consensus 2018 NFL Mock Draft 1.0

Tis the season, we’re going to take our first look at how the draft might play out without trades.

Virginia Tech v Boston College Photo by Tim Bradbury/Getty Images

Mock draft season is in full swing and boy are draft fans in for some serious volume. We here at Pride of Detroit have collected 400 mock drafts from May to January—that’s not a typo, we’ve seriously seen more than 400 of these bad boys. Unlike 2017 where we solely tracked Lions mock drafts, we’re covering these for all 32 NFL teams in 2018.

I wouldn’t say the results are surprising. For the most part, you’re getting players you would expect to be mocked to their respective teams, but that doesn’t mean they’ve all been no brainers. For this mock, we’re not just slotting players to teams, we’re going to be giving teams the most mocked player still remaining, creating a mock based on the general consensus of the draft community as a whole. Without further ado, let’s jump right into this thing!

1. Cleveland Browns - Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State

Were you surprised to see that it was Saquon Barkley, and not a quarterback, who had been mocked to the Browns the most? Barkley edged out both Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen by being mocked 126 times to the Browns. Now, the Browns have two picks in the first round and Sam Darnold has actually been mocked more often at the first overall pick than Barkley (who is more often mocked at fourth overall), but that wasn’t the rules I set forth so the Browns go with the talented PSU runner instead of a QB.

2. New York Giants - Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA

The Giants need a quarterback and they get one with Josh Rosen. Rosen had been mocked 108 times, the most of any player to the Giants. Sam Darnold came in second with 80 mocks, with Lamar Jackson coming in sixth and Josh Allen in eighth place, so mock drafters feel pretty comfortable putting Eli Manning’s replacement to the G-men.

3. Indianapolis Colts - Bradley Chubb, DE, North Carolina State

Mock drafters seem keyed in to what the Colts need coming into the draft season. Bradley Chubb has been mocked in 93 of the 400 mocks while fellow pass rusher Arden Key of LSU comes in third with 39. Sandwiched between them is Saquon Barkley who is on 53 mocks while Minkah Fitzpatrick rounds out their top four.

4. Cleveland Browns (via Houston Texans) - Sam Darnold, QB, USC

Having taken a running back with their first pick, the Browns get lucky that their second-most mocked player is still available here. Nabbing some combination of Barkley and Darnold is common in mock drafts, it just usually works in the reverse order that we’re seeing here.

5. Denver Broncos - Quenton Nelson, OG, Notre Dame

The Broncos are a weird team to follow in that they’ve been all over the place for mock drafts all year. Their most mocked player is the nation’s top ranked interior offensive lineman Quenton Nelson, but he leads with only 38 mock drafts. Second through fourth are all quarterbacks, Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, and Sam Darnold in order, with offensive tackle Orlando Brown of Oklahoma coming in fifth.

6. New York Jets - Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

Maybe the first surprise we’ve seen so far, Lamar Jackson is a pretty divisive prospect in this draft class. He’s still seen his name called to the Jets more often than any other player, having been mocked 60 times. The next five most mocked players are all quarterbacks, in order: Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, and Mason Rudolph.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Arden Key, DE/OLB, LSU

Bradley Chubb is the common name to the Bucs having been mocked 102 times, but he’s already off the board. That leaves their second choice in LSU’s Arden Key. Pass rush is common for Tampa Bay with their three of their top four picks being pass rushers. Minkah Fitzpatrick came in third and Haorld Landry rounded out their tpo mocked players.

8. Chicago Bears - Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama

The Bears have a lot of needs, but one that mock drafters seem to really understand is the need for a game-changing receiver. Calvin Ridley finds his name called to Chicago after having been mocked 84 times. Arden Key came in second with 52 while Minkah Fitzpatrick was third with 44. Another receiver, Courtland Sutton of SMU, came in fourth.

9. San Francisco 49ers - Derwin James, FS, Florida State

The 49ers lose out on their most mocked player in Saquon Barkley, but they also lose out on their second and third most mocked (Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen) that probably wouldn’t have gone there anyway. The 49ers aren’t seeing QB mocks these days, but early season that was all the rage. Unfortunately, they miss out on their fourth and fifth most mocked players in Minkah Fitzpatrick and Quenton Nelson as well. That leaves their sixth most mocked player, Derwin James, who was mocked to the 49ers only 21 times.

10. Oakland Raiders - Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia

It seems like every mock has the Raiders getting the talented linebacker out of Georgia. Smith was barely mentioned in mocks prior to October, but he made his presence felt in a big way as the college season wore on and is now a staple in the top ten. Smith has been mocked to the Raiders 56 times, with Texas linebacker Malik Jefferson coming in second with 28 and OSU’s Denzel Ward in third with 21 mocks.

11. Miami Dolphins - Tarvarus McFadden, CB, FSU

The Dolphins lose out on their top mocked player, Quenton Nelson, who went earlier to the Broncos but was mocked to the Dolphins 60 times. They also lose out on their second most mocked player (31) Arden Key and their third most (25) Derwin James. That leaves them with Florida State cornerback Tarvarus McFadden. McFadden has fallen out of favor in mocks as of late and in fact hasn’t been on more than half of mock drafts since November, appearing in only around 16% now. Still, earlier in the process, he was mocked to the Dolphins a lot, so he lands 11th overall here.

12. Cincinnati Bengals - Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame

The Bengals need offensive line help in a bad way so it’s no surprise that four of their top five most mocked players are on the line. Mike McGlinchey tops the bunch having been mocked 74 times. Texas tackle Connor Williams came in second with 46, Quenton Nelson was third with 43, and Orlando Brown of Oklahoma came in fifth with 23 mocks. Oddly, it’s FSU safety Derwin James who came in fourth.

13. Washington Redskins - Derrius Guice, RB, LSU

With the 49ers nabbing the Redskins’ most mocked player in Derwin James (56 mocks), the consolation prize is LSU’s Derrius Guice. Guice was tied here with Washington defensive tackle Vita Vea, so I settled the tie with a coin flip, a rule I just made up for this mock since coin flips are a silly way to settle something like a drafted player or which draft pick they get. Quarterback Mason Rudolph came in fourth for Washington with 21 mocks.

14. Green Bay Packers - Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State

The Packers have a wide range of defensive needs and their top seven most mocked players are all defenders of some kind. OSU corner Denzel Ward leads the pack with 32 mocks while Boston College pass rusher Harold Landry came in second with 27. Iowa’s Joshua Jackson has been making a big surge and comes in third while LSU’s Arden Key and Roquan Smith came in fourth and fifth.

15. Arizona Cardinals - Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming

With Carson Palmer retiring the Cardinals have a clear need at quarterback and mock drafts have done their best to oblige. Wyoming’s Josh Allen leads the way with 69 mocks for the Cardinals while Mason Rudolph (42) and Lamar Jackson (31) follow him. The first non quarterback is Courtland Sutton with 23 mocks for Arizona.

16. Baltimore Ravens - Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU

Sometimes a player and team just make sense and that seems to be the case with the Ravens and SMU’s Courtland Sutton. He has been mocked 73 times to Baltimore, the most of any other player, while Calvin Ridley of Alabama comes in second. Derrius Guice is the only non WR in the top five for the Ravens as Christian Kirk and James Washington round it out.

17. Los Angeles Chargers - Connor Williams, OT, Texas

Though he has been in the top five for many, Connor Williams hasn’t been the top choice for anybody yet. He isn’t for the Chargers either, but their most mocked players in Derwin James (44) and Mike McGlinchey (41) were both already gone. Connor Williams has been mocked 38 times to San Diego, with Christian Wilkins (31) coming in fourth.

18. Seattle Seahawks - Orlando Brown, OT, Oklahoma

The Seahawks offensive line has long been a mess and their run game is among the worst in the league since Beast Mode left. Derrius Guice has been mocked the most with 39 mocks, while their selection Orlando Brown clocked in with 32. Tackle Mitch Hyatt (who went back to school anyway) came in third with 24 while yet another offensive tackle, Mike McGlinchey, came in fourth.

19. Dallas Cowboys - Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson

Another player that simply lines up too well to ignore the connection, Clemson’s Christian Wilkins has been mocked the most to the Cowboys with 70 mocks. Maurice Hurst would hardly be a consolation prize, and he’s second with 37. Linebacker Roquan Smith comes in third with 21.

20. Detroit Lions - Harold Landry, DE/OLB, Boston College

The Detroit Lions don’t get any of their first four choices with their most mocked player, Derrius Guice (59), third most Christian Wilkins (35), and fourth most Arden Key (34) all going before the team picked and their second most, Clelin Ferrell (36), is reportedly going back to school. That leaves them with their fifth most popular choice, Boston College pass rusher Harold Landry, who was mocked to the Detroit Lions 27 times out of 400 mock drafts.

21. Buffalo Bills - Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State

The Bills’ most mocked player is Christian Wilkins (59 mocks), but he’s gone a few picks earlier. The Bills instead grab quarterback Mason Rudolph, who was mocked 45 times to the team. It’s kind of neat because...

22. Buffalo Bills - James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State

...The third most mocked player to the Bills is the guy Mason Rudolph was throwing to. Washington was mocked 41 times, just a few less than his teammate Rudolph. Michigan’s Maurice Hurst came in fourth for the Bills with 39 mocks.

23. Los Angeles Rams - Joshua Jackson, CB, Iowa

The most mocked player to the Rams has been OSU’s Denzel Ward with 36 mocks, but a close second was Joshua Jackson with 34. Tarvarus McFadden, another cornerback, came in third with 23 tied with FSU’s Derwin James. Yet another defensive back came next in Isaiah Oliver.

24. Carolina Panthers - Martinas Rankin, OT, Mississippi State

The Panthers aren’t able to nab any of their top four choices here. Clelin Ferrell led the way with 27 mocks for the Panthers, but he’s gone. Bradley Chubb was second with 23 but he’s long gone. James Washington joined his QB in Buffalo while Orlando Brown ended up with the Seahawks. That left Martinas Rankin, who tied with Brown at only 18 mock drafts. We’re getting to that late part of the draft where we have a higher volume of players since there’s no clear consensus this late in the first round.

25. Tennessee Titans - Sam Hubbard, DE, Ohio State

The Titans lost both of their most mocked players in Harold Landry (40 mocks), who went to the Detroit Lions, and Clelin Ferrell (33) who went back to school. That leaves them with a consolation prize in Ohio State’s Sam Hubbard who was mocked to the Titans 24 times out of 400 mocks.

26. Atlanta Falcons - Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan

Mock drafters have been lining up defensive tackles for the Falcons all season and four of their top five are interior defensive linemen. Leading the way is Michigan’s Maurice Hurst with 44 mocks, followed by Vita Vea with 38. Guard Quenton Nelson was next, with defensive tackles Christian Wilkins and Da’Ron Payne coming in fourth and fifth respectively.

27. New Orleans Saints - Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama

Linebacker seems to be the hot thing for the Saints and Alabama’s Rashaan Evans is leading the way for New Orleans with 28 mock drafts. Texas linebacker Malik Jefferson comes in second with 22 followed by pass rusher Harold Landry and not-at-all-mocked-because-he’s-short-like-Brees Baker Mayfield at fourth most mocks.

28. Pittsburgh Steelers - Ronnie Harrison, S, Alabama

Alabama’s Ronnie Harrison recently declared for the draft and he’s the top target with 37 mocks for the Steelers after taking the lead over Wyoming QB Josh Allen who had 30. Linebackers Malik Jefferson (25) and Rashaan Evans (21) were mocked third and fourth most with tight end Mark Andrews coming in fifth.

29. Jacksonville Jaguars - Mark Andrews, TE, Oklahoma

The Jaguars missed out on both of their top mock targets in Lamar Jackson (40) and Josh Allen (30). As one of the only teams that are being consistently mocked a tight end, they end up instead with their third most mocked player, Mark Andrews of Oklahoma who has been mocked 28 times. Wide receiver Courtland Sutton came fourth, followed by quarterbacks Mason Rudolph and Baker Mayfield.

30. Philadelphia Eagles - Chukwuma Okorafor, OT, Western Michigan

With one of the best tackles in the past decade, Jason Peters, facing injury-forced retirement the Eagles are being mocked Chukwuma Okorafor from Western Michigan more than any other player. His 26 mocks is only a little more than running back Derrius Guice and his 24. Martinas Rankin, another tackle, came in third with 18 tied with running back Saquon Barkley.

31. New England Patriots - Malik Jefferson, LB, Texas

Though he was mocked in the first round quite often, Malik Jefferson was no team’s favorite target. The Patriots were mocked Sam Hubbard the most with 28 mock drafts, followed by Austin Bryant (17) who went back to Clemson. Their third most was Harold Landry, Malik Jefferson, and Taven Bryan who all tied with 14 mock drafts. To break the tie, I flipped a coin and the Patriots take home an athletic linebacker with upside over a defensive tackle to the same.

32. Minnesota Vikings - Billy Price, OC, Ohio State

So I expected that there would be little consensus the later in the first round we got. Instead, the final six picks in the round all get their top most mocked player. The Vikings in this case end up with Billy Price, who was mocked to Minnesota 26 times. That’s more than Da’Ron Payne, who came next with 22, and Vita Vea who had 17. Maurice Hurst, Martinas Rankin, and quarterback Lamar Jackson all tied for fourth with 16.

Wrap Up

So that didn’t turn out how I expected at all! Sure, we had some picks that were obvious ones, and while there weren’t many head scratchers, it surprised me how much of a consensus mock drafters have had for teams that are picking later in the first round. It isn’t just the players that are being keyed in, but the positions as well. Most of the teams ended up with at least a player at a position of need, and I don’t think there were any picks that were truly shocking. What do you think of the way this draft shaped up? Let us know in the comments with your thoughts on the pick, or who you would have picked instead!

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