We have been tracking mock drafts since May and recently ran a consensus mock where we took whatever players were nocked to each team the most, rather than making picks based on availability and need. Back then, we had 400 mock drafts tracked and committed to doing another when we hit each century mark. With nearly 200 mocks in the month of January alone, it didn't take long to hit 500, so once again, here are the rules: We don't care if it makes sense, we don't care if there were better picks available. We selected players solely on how often they were mocked to teams, and this one has even more results that are certifiably bonkers than the last time around!
1. Cleveland Browns - Sam Darnold, QB USC
Darnold has now officially overtaken Saquon Barkley for the No. 1 spot for the Browns, as Barkley is generally going 2 or 3 instead of 1 or 4. He remains the second most mocked player to the Browns, followed by Josh Rosen and Minkah Fitzpatrick, though we’ll see in a few picks who still remains to be selected at fourth overall.
2. New York Giants - Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
This one hasn’t changed from the last consensus and in fact the margin has widened considerably. Almost 60 percent of the 179 mock drafts we found for January so far had the Giants taking Rosen and he leads all selections for the team with 168 selections to only 96 at the second most spot (Sam Darnold). After that, it’s Saquon Barkley and Connor Williams with just over 30 mocks a piece.
3. Indianapolis Colts - Bradley Chubb, DE, North Carolina State
Another pick that’s remained the same, the Colts end up taking Bradley Chubb from NC State in 143 out of the 500 mocks we have tracked. Second most is Saquon Barkley, who has seen some traction lately with mocks for the Colts. He’s at about half the number of mocks as Chubb, however, with 76. Arden Key is next with 42 followed by Connor Williams with 38.
4. Cleveland Browns (via Houston Texans) - Saquan Barkley, RB Penn State
The Browns end up getting both of the same picks they had in the last consensus draft, just in reversed draft spots. Their top choice, of course, went at first overall while Barkley took the second spot. With two of the top three most mocked players being quarterbacks, it’s hard to imagine the Browns walking out of the draft without one in the first four picks.
5. Denver Broncos - Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
And from left field, the Broncos new consensus pick is Baker Mayfield at fifth overall. Mayfield didn’t even appear on our first consensus mock, but he has been the most mocked player to the Broncos after overtaking Josh Allen and their previous pick Quenton Nelson. He is an increasingly common pick to the Broncos, but with a lead of only three mocks over Josh Allen (60 to 57), this one could go back and forth for a while. Eight of the top 10 most mocked players for the Broncos have been either quarterbacks or offensive lineman, so their needs are pretty obvious.
6. New York Jets - Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville
Let’s check in on the Jets most mocked players. First is Baker Mayfield with 75, but he already went one pick before to the Broncos. Next is their selection, Lamar Jackson, with 70. After him you have Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, and Mason Rudolph, all quarterbacks. All told, more than 67 percent of our 500 mocks have the Jets taking a QB in the first round.
Sam Darnold Josh Rosen
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Arden Key, DE/OLB, LSU
The Buccaneers end up with the same selection and for the same reason. Their most mocked player is Bradley Chubb and he’s already off the board, which leaves their second most mocked player, Arden Key. Chubb had 138 mocks and Key less than half that with 61, followed by Alabama’s Minkah Fitzpatrick with 47 and Boston College’s Harold Landry with 25. All told, mock drafts have the Bucs taking an edge rusher nearly half the time, with corner being a secondary need.
8. Chicago Bears - Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama
No change to the Bears, who still end up taking receiver Calvin Ridley with their top selection. Ridley led with 114 mocks with Courtland Sutton tying for second with Arden Key with 53 mocks each. Christian Kirk, the talented slot receiver from TAMU clocked in just outside the top five, so mock drafters see a clear need for a receiver in Chicago.
9. San Francisco 49ers - Quenton Nelson, OG
I goofed with the 49ers pick in my last mock as they should have been picking Minkah Fitzpatrick, but due to a formatting issue I had the picks out of order, and well, I screwed up. Ironically, they still don’t end up with Minkah since their new consensus No. 2 pick is Quenton Nelson with 54 mocks. Saquon Barkley led with 98, but he’s off the board already. Minkah Fitzpatrick came in at third with 47 mocks, followed by a pair of quarterbacks who I’m sure won’t be on the next consensus.
Sam Darnold Josh Rosen
10. Oakland Raiders - Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia
The Raiders still end up getting Roquan Smith, just like the last consensus, only this time the margin has widened considerably. Smith has been mocked to the Raiders 94 times, nearly a fifth of all the mocks, while the second most mocked player (Denzel Ward) only saw his name called 29 times, a more than three to one margin. It’s a clear fit that mock drafters see here, I wonder if it lasts.
11. Miami Dolphins - Derwin James, FS, Florida State
As expected, Tarvarus McFadden has fallen off the consensus after his preseason surge tapered off. He’s still appearing on the occasional first round mock, but not often and not to the Dolphins, who still miss out on their top three picks in Quenton Nelson (71), Arden Key (45), and Roquan Smith (36). That leaves them ‘settling’ for Derwin James. The athletic Florida State safety is often mocked higher than 11, but with others going before him he lands in Miami this time.
Quenton Nelson Arden Key Roquan Smith
12. Cincinnati Bengals - Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame
The Bengals still need a tackle and their top four picks are offensive lineman here. They land their most mocked player once again in Mike McGlinchey, who has been mocked 108 times to Cincinnati. Following him are Texas OT Connor Williams with 64 mocks, Quenton Nelson with 52, and Orlando Brown with 34. Nearly two-thirds of our tracked mocks have the Bengals taking an offensive lineman, though free agency may change this.
13. Washington Redskins - Vita Vea, DT, Washington
It’s crazy watching how fast their previous selection, Derrius Guice, has fallen out of favor with mock drafters. He’s on only 60 percent of mock drafts these days, and while he was once the consensus pick of the Redskins at 13 he’s barely in their top 5 now. Leading their picks is Derwin James, who’s off the board to the Dolphins, and Calvin Ridley who is long gone to the Bears. That leaves the Skins netting one of my top 5 players in Washington’s Vita Vea. Though he’s only been on 31 Redskin mock drafts (James was on 78, Ridley 32), he’s been getting mocked to the Redskins about a quarter of the time nowadays, so that should rise in the coming months.
Derwin James Calvin Ridley
14. Green Bay Packers - Joshua Jackson, CB, Iowa
Sticking with a corner, the Packers land Iowa’s Joshua Jackson. Jackson has been a swift riser over the past two months and his 50 Packers mocks quickly overtook the team’s previous consensus pick Denzel Ward (41). Harold Landry came in third with 33 mocks.
Arden Key Roquan Smith
15. Arizona Cardinals - Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming
No change and the Cards still get Josh Allen here. Appearing on 94 mocks to the Cardinals, Allen took the top spot over another quarterback, Mason Rudolph who was on 51. In fact, four of the top five selections for the Cardinals are quarterbacks as their third most (41) was Lamar Jackson and tied for fourth most is Baker Mayfield with 28.
16. Baltimore Ravens - Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU
The Ravens still end up taking a wide receiver with this pick. Sutton and Calvin Ridley are very close, with Sutton on 94 mocks and Ridley on 83. Next is Derrius Guice with 51 and another pair of receivers, showing that mock drafters generally feel the team is lacking offensive weapons.
17. Los Angeles Chargers - Connor Williams, OT, Texas
The Chargers miss out on their top two choices here in Derwin James (Dolphins) and Mike McGlinchey (Bengals). They end up with Connor Williams, who was on 46 mocks to the team, but Orlando Brown (42) has been catching up quickly.
Derwin James Mike McGlinchey
Christian Wilkins (returned to school)
18. Seattle Seahawks - Derrius Guice, RB, LSU
Down, but not out, Derrius Guice still holds onto a first round selection here as he has been the Seahawks’ most mocked player since the preseason. He tends to go here, to the Lions at 20, or earlier to the Ravens, otherwise we rarely see him on mocks anymore. The Seahawks next couple of choices are tackles, as their protection has never been good.
Mike McGlinchey Joshua Jackson
19. Dallas Cowboys - Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan
The Cowboys need an interior pass rusher and mock drafters know it. All of the top three most mocked players are defensive tackles, but with Christian Wilkins leading the pack with 76 they’re already down one choice. The most mocked player who didn’t return to school is Mo Hurst with 64 mocks, so that’s who they take here. Next most is Vita Vea, but he’s already gone to their division rival Redskins. Their next few picks are taken, in fact, leaving their fall back option as the sixth most mocked player to the Redskins, Da’Ron Payne.
Christian Wilkins (returned to school)
Vita Vea Roquan Smith Calvin Ridley
20. Detroit Lions - Harold Landry, DE/OLB, Boston College
The Lions end up with the same pick as the last consensus mock, but I don’t think it’s going to be this way in the next one. With their most mocked player, Derrius Guice, falling off earlier mocks he’s probably going to end up mocked more to the Lions. Pass rushers are mocked to the Lions about 60 percent of the time, but nobody specific, so Landry may not hold onto this top spot. So varied are the picks, that due to returning to school or falling off the board you have to go to the Lions eighth most mocked player to find their second option here.
Derrius Guice Arden Key Clelin Ferrell (returned to school) Christian Wilkins (returned to school)
Maurice Hurst Bradley Chubb
21. Buffalo Bills - Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State
So this one is going to get a bit interesting...
22. Buffalo Bills - James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State
Once again the Bills end up taking both Oklahoma State players, netting a starting QB to take over for the expected loss of Tyrod Taylor and someone new starter Mason Rudolph is familiar throwing to. Things could get awkward in the next mock as Washington has fallen out of this spot a bit while Lamar Jackson, who leads him, is still popular here but falling off in his previously selected spot.
Christian Wilkins (returned to school) Mason Rudolph Maurice Hurst Lamar Jackson
23. Los Angeles Rams - Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State
The Rams have essentially flipped selections with the Packers, as their original pick was Joshua Jackson and the Packers took Ward. Ward only just overtook Jackson in mocks for the Rams with 47 total, over 44. Next up is Tarvarus McFadden, who’s almost completely dropped off mock radar these days, and Carlton Davis is fourth with 23.
24. Carolina Panthers - Orlando Brown, OT, Oklahoma
Wide receiver, pass rusher, and offensive line are the big needs for the Panthers, and James Washington, selected by the Bills, could very well be their selection in the next mock. Instead, they end up with rising offensive tackle Orlando Brown who edges out wide receiver Christian Kirk for this spot.
James Washington Clelin Ferrell (returned to school) Courtland Sutton
25. Tennessee Titans - Sam Hubbard, DE, Ohio State
No change here and the margin is pretty close to the same. Harold Landry went a few picks earlier to the Lions, after appearing on 50 mocks for the Titans, leaving their second pick in Sam Hubbard who was on 40. Their third pick was a DE who went back to school, while their fifth pick was yet another DE. Pass rush is a clear need in Tennessee.
Clelin Ferrell (returned to school) Denzel Ward
26. Atlanta Falcons - Da’Ron Payne, DT, Alabama
An interior pass rusher is the most common pick for the Falcons and that plays out here. Four of their top five most mocked players are interior DL, with Vita Vea (Redskins) and Maurice Hurst (Cowboys) already off the board. That leaves Da’Ron Payne to the Falcons, having appeared on 33 mocks since the preseason.
Vita Vea Maurice Hurst
Christian Wilkins (returned to school)
27. New Orleans Saints - Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama
No change here for the Saints, though there’s only a small margin to their second choice. Evans netted 36 mocks to the Saints while Malik Jefferson of Texas landed on 32. It used to be popular to mock Baker Mayfield here, but that seems to have tailed off with Mayfield going much higher lately.
Harold Landry Baker Mayfield
28. Pittsburgh Steelers - Ronnie Harrison, S, Alabama
This is a team to watch on these consensus mocks as their top choice has a sizeable lead but has multiple contenders nipping at his heels. Ronnie Harrison leads with 54 mocks to Pittsburgh, but Rashaan Evans and Malik Jefferson are tied in second with 37 and gaining steam. Also gaining traction is VT linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, who clocked in fifth here with 22.
29. Jacksonville Jaguars - Mark Andrews, TE, Oklahoma
The only TE consistently getting first round buzz is Oklahoma’s Mark Andrews, and it’s usually to the Jaguars. He’s now tied with Lamar Jackson for the most mocked to the Jags with 46, with a wide receiver and three other quarterbacks following after. It’d be an interesting pick, but one I’m not sure it will hold as the draft nears.
Lamar Jackson Courtland Sutton Mason Rudolph Josh Allen Baker Mayfield
30. Minnesota Vikings - Billy Price, OC, Ohio State
The Vikings still look to bolster their interior line with Billy Price here, who leads with 50 mocks to Minnesota. A few DT follow after, but they’ve already been picked so the next most mocked is all the way down at Martinas Rankin with only 17 mocks.
Maurice Hurst Da’Ron Payne Vita Vea
31. Philadelphia Eagles - Chukwuma Okorafor, OT, Western Michigan
Western Michigan’s star tackle is still the top most mocked player to the Eagles and has been mocked to the team the most in each of the past three months. Tackle has been a clear focus for mock drafters as we’ve seen 11 different tackles mocked to the Eagles at some point.
32. New England Patriots - Taven Bryan, DT, Florida
With the Patriots top choice, Sam Hubbard, off the board to Tennessee and their second most mocked choice returning to school, that leaves them with their third most popular chose, Florida DT Taven Bryan. Though he’s only been mocked to the Pats 19 times, that’s still good enough for third most. He only holds a single mock lead over Derrius Guice and Harold Landry, however, and only two over the Patriots previous selection, Malik Jefferson.
Sam Hubbard Austin Bryant (returned to school)
Derrius Guice Harold Landry
So results were even more erratic than the last time! To address the elephant in the room, Minkah Fitzpatrick did not go in the first round of this mock draft. That happened last time, but that was by my own error. This time, it really was due to the math simply working out that way. Consistently getting mocked highly, he wasn’t any of the top teams’ most mocked player, which meant once we were outside of the top sven, we weren’t seeing him on mocks anymore. It’s an odd situation that wouldn’t happen in real life, but that’s why it’s fun to look at what ifs from a different angle.
Joshua Jackson, Sam Hubbard, Billy Price, Rashaan Evans, Mark Andrews and Chukwuma Okorafor all landed outside the top 32 most mocked players, but ended up on the consensus mock because they’re consistently mocked to the same teams.
Taven Bryan has only appeared on 87 of our 500 mocks, less than 20 percent, but sheer luck and numbers sees him at pick 32. Other than that, it plays out very similar to what a real world mock draft may look like. Let us know what you think!