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2018 NFL Mock Draft: MathBomb Consensus Mock 2.0

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Another few weeks, another 100 mock drafts in the books. We’ve now hit the half-century mark on the season, so let’s see what’s the consensus!

COLLEGE FOOTBALL: SEP 09 Wake Forest at Boston College Photo by Andrew Snook/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

We have been tracking mock drafts since May and recently ran a consensus mock where we took whatever players were nocked to each team the most, rather than making picks based on availability and need. Back then, we had 400 mock drafts tracked and committed to doing another when we hit each century mark. With nearly 200 mocks in the month of January alone, it didn't take long to hit 500, so once again, here are the rules: We don't care if it makes sense, we don't care if there were better picks available. We selected players solely on how often they were mocked to teams, and this one has even more results that are certifiably bonkers than the last time around!

1. Cleveland Browns - Sam Darnold, QB USC

Darnold has now officially overtaken Saquon Barkley for the No. 1 spot for the Browns, as Barkley is generally going 2 or 3 instead of 1 or 4. He remains the second most mocked player to the Browns, followed by Josh Rosen and Minkah Fitzpatrick, though we’ll see in a few picks who still remains to be selected at fourth overall.

2. New York Giants - Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA

This one hasn’t changed from the last consensus and in fact the margin has widened considerably. Almost 60 percent of the 179 mock drafts we found for January so far had the Giants taking Rosen and he leads all selections for the team with 168 selections to only 96 at the second most spot (Sam Darnold). After that, it’s Saquon Barkley and Connor Williams with just over 30 mocks a piece.

3. Indianapolis Colts - Bradley Chubb, DE, North Carolina State

Another pick that’s remained the same, the Colts end up taking Bradley Chubb from NC State in 143 out of the 500 mocks we have tracked. Second most is Saquon Barkley, who has seen some traction lately with mocks for the Colts. He’s at about half the number of mocks as Chubb, however, with 76. Arden Key is next with 42 followed by Connor Williams with 38.

4. Cleveland Browns (via Houston Texans) - Saquan Barkley, RB Penn State

The Browns end up getting both of the same picks they had in the last consensus draft, just in reversed draft spots. Their top choice, of course, went at first overall while Barkley took the second spot. With two of the top three most mocked players being quarterbacks, it’s hard to imagine the Browns walking out of the draft without one in the first four picks.

5. Denver Broncos - Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

And from left field, the Broncos new consensus pick is Baker Mayfield at fifth overall. Mayfield didn’t even appear on our first consensus mock, but he has been the most mocked player to the Broncos after overtaking Josh Allen and their previous pick Quenton Nelson. He is an increasingly common pick to the Broncos, but with a lead of only three mocks over Josh Allen (60 to 57), this one could go back and forth for a while. Eight of the top 10 most mocked players for the Broncos have been either quarterbacks or offensive lineman, so their needs are pretty obvious.

6. New York Jets - Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville

Let’s check in on the Jets most mocked players. First is Baker Mayfield with 75, but he already went one pick before to the Broncos. Next is their selection, Lamar Jackson, with 70. After him you have Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, Josh Allen, and Mason Rudolph, all quarterbacks. All told, more than 67 percent of our 500 mocks have the Jets taking a QB in the first round.

Baker Mayfield
Lamar Jackson
Sam Darnold
Josh Rosen
Josh Allen

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Arden Key, DE/OLB, LSU

The Buccaneers end up with the same selection and for the same reason. Their most mocked player is Bradley Chubb and he’s already off the board, which leaves their second most mocked player, Arden Key. Chubb had 138 mocks and Key less than half that with 61, followed by Alabama’s Minkah Fitzpatrick with 47 and Boston College’s Harold Landry with 25. All told, mock drafts have the Bucs taking an edge rusher nearly half the time, with corner being a secondary need.

Bradley Chubb
Arden Key
Minkah Fitzpatrick
Harold Landry
Quenton Nelson

8. Chicago Bears - Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama

No change to the Bears, who still end up taking receiver Calvin Ridley with their top selection. Ridley led with 114 mocks with Courtland Sutton tying for second with Arden Key with 53 mocks each. Christian Kirk, the talented slot receiver from TAMU clocked in just outside the top five, so mock drafters see a clear need for a receiver in Chicago.

Calvin Ridley
Arden Key
Courtland Sutton
Minkah Fitzpatrick
Connor Williams

9. San Francisco 49ers - Quenton Nelson, OG

I goofed with the 49ers pick in my last mock as they should have been picking Minkah Fitzpatrick, but due to a formatting issue I had the picks out of order, and well, I screwed up. Ironically, they still don’t end up with Minkah since their new consensus No. 2 pick is Quenton Nelson with 54 mocks. Saquon Barkley led with 98, but he’s off the board already. Minkah Fitzpatrick came in at third with 47 mocks, followed by a pair of quarterbacks who I’m sure won’t be on the next consensus.

Saquon Barkley
Quenton Nelson
Minkah Fitzpatrick
Sam Darnold
Josh Rosen

10. Oakland Raiders - Roquan Smith, LB, Georgia

The Raiders still end up getting Roquan Smith, just like the last consensus, only this time the margin has widened considerably. Smith has been mocked to the Raiders 94 times, nearly a fifth of all the mocks, while the second most mocked player (Denzel Ward) only saw his name called 29 times, a more than three to one margin. It’s a clear fit that mock drafters see here, I wonder if it lasts.

Roquan Smith
Denzel Ward
Malik Jefferson
Derwin James
Da’Ron Payne

11. Miami Dolphins - Derwin James, FS, Florida State

As expected, Tarvarus McFadden has fallen off the consensus after his preseason surge tapered off. He’s still appearing on the occasional first round mock, but not often and not to the Dolphins, who still miss out on their top three picks in Quenton Nelson (71), Arden Key (45), and Roquan Smith (36). That leaves them ‘settling’ for Derwin James. The athletic Florida State safety is often mocked higher than 11, but with others going before him he lands in Miami this time.

Quenton Nelson
Arden Key
Roquan Smith
Derwin James
Tarvarus McFadden

12. Cincinnati Bengals - Mike McGlinchey, OT, Notre Dame

The Bengals still need a tackle and their top four picks are offensive lineman here. They land their most mocked player once again in Mike McGlinchey, who has been mocked 108 times to Cincinnati. Following him are Texas OT Connor Williams with 64 mocks, Quenton Nelson with 52, and Orlando Brown with 34. Nearly two-thirds of our tracked mocks have the Bengals taking an offensive lineman, though free agency may change this.

Mike McGlinchey
Connor Williams
Quenton Nelson
Orlando Brown
Derwin James

13. Washington Redskins - Vita Vea, DT, Washington

It’s crazy watching how fast their previous selection, Derrius Guice, has fallen out of favor with mock drafters. He’s on only 60 percent of mock drafts these days, and while he was once the consensus pick of the Redskins at 13 he’s barely in their top 5 now. Leading their picks is Derwin James, who’s off the board to the Dolphins, and Calvin Ridley who is long gone to the Bears. That leaves the Skins netting one of my top 5 players in Washington’s Vita Vea. Though he’s only been on 31 Redskin mock drafts (James was on 78, Ridley 32), he’s been getting mocked to the Redskins about a quarter of the time nowadays, so that should rise in the coming months.

Derwin James
Calvin Ridley
Vita Vea
Josh Allen
Derrius Guice

14. Green Bay Packers - Joshua Jackson, CB, Iowa

Sticking with a corner, the Packers land Iowa’s Joshua Jackson. Jackson has been a swift riser over the past two months and his 50 Packers mocks quickly overtook the team’s previous consensus pick Denzel Ward (41). Harold Landry came in third with 33 mocks.

Joshua Jackson
Denzel Ward
Harold Landry
Arden Key
Roquan Smith

15. Arizona Cardinals - Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming

No change and the Cards still get Josh Allen here. Appearing on 94 mocks to the Cardinals, Allen took the top spot over another quarterback, Mason Rudolph who was on 51. In fact, four of the top five selections for the Cardinals are quarterbacks as their third most (41) was Lamar Jackson and tied for fourth most is Baker Mayfield with 28.

Josh Allen
Mason Rudolph
Lamar Jackson
Courtland Sutton
Baker Mayfield

16. Baltimore Ravens - Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU

The Ravens still end up taking a wide receiver with this pick. Sutton and Calvin Ridley are very close, with Sutton on 94 mocks and Ridley on 83. Next is Derrius Guice with 51 and another pair of receivers, showing that mock drafters generally feel the team is lacking offensive weapons.

Courtland Sutton
Calvin Ridley
Derrius Guice
James Washington
Christian Kirk

17. Los Angeles Chargers - Connor Williams, OT, Texas

The Chargers miss out on their top two choices here in Derwin James (Dolphins) and Mike McGlinchey (Bengals). They end up with Connor Williams, who was on 46 mocks to the team, but Orlando Brown (42) has been catching up quickly.

Derwin James
Mike McGlinchey
Connor Williams
Orlando Brown
Christian Wilkins (returned to school)

18. Seattle Seahawks - Derrius Guice, RB, LSU

Down, but not out, Derrius Guice still holds onto a first round selection here as he has been the Seahawks’ most mocked player since the preseason. He tends to go here, to the Lions at 20, or earlier to the Ravens, otherwise we rarely see him on mocks anymore. The Seahawks next couple of choices are tackles, as their protection has never been good.

Derrius Guice
Orlando Brown
Mike McGlinchey
Joshua Jackson
Mitch Hyatt

19. Dallas Cowboys - Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan

The Cowboys need an interior pass rusher and mock drafters know it. All of the top three most mocked players are defensive tackles, but with Christian Wilkins leading the pack with 76 they’re already down one choice. The most mocked player who didn’t return to school is Mo Hurst with 64 mocks, so that’s who they take here. Next most is Vita Vea, but he’s already gone to their division rival Redskins. Their next few picks are taken, in fact, leaving their fall back option as the sixth most mocked player to the Redskins, Da’Ron Payne.

Christian Wilkins (returned to school)
Maurice Hurst
Vita Vea
Roquan Smith
Calvin Ridley
Da’Ron Payne

20. Detroit Lions - Harold Landry, DE/OLB, Boston College

The Lions end up with the same pick as the last consensus mock, but I don’t think it’s going to be this way in the next one. With their most mocked player, Derrius Guice, falling off earlier mocks he’s probably going to end up mocked more to the Lions. Pass rushers are mocked to the Lions about 60 percent of the time, but nobody specific, so Landry may not hold onto this top spot. So varied are the picks, that due to returning to school or falling off the board you have to go to the Lions eighth most mocked player to find their second option here.

Derrius Guice
Arden Key
Clelin Ferrell (returned to school)
Christian Wilkins (returned to school)
Harold Landry
Maurice Hurst
Bradley Chubb
Sam Hubbard

21. Buffalo Bills - Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State

So this one is going to get a bit interesting...

22. Buffalo Bills - James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State

Once again the Bills end up taking both Oklahoma State players, netting a starting QB to take over for the expected loss of Tyrod Taylor and someone new starter Mason Rudolph is familiar throwing to. Things could get awkward in the next mock as Washington has fallen out of this spot a bit while Lamar Jackson, who leads him, is still popular here but falling off in his previously selected spot.

Christian Wilkins (returned to school)
Mason Rudolph
Maurice Hurst
Lamar Jackson
James Washington
Josh Allen
Da’Ron Payne

23. Los Angeles Rams - Denzel Ward, CB, Ohio State

The Rams have essentially flipped selections with the Packers, as their original pick was Joshua Jackson and the Packers took Ward. Ward only just overtook Jackson in mocks for the Rams with 47 total, over 44. Next up is Tarvarus McFadden, who’s almost completely dropped off mock radar these days, and Carlton Davis is fourth with 23.

Denzel Ward
Joshua Jackson
Tarvarus McFadden
Carlton Davis
Derwin James

24. Carolina Panthers - Orlando Brown, OT, Oklahoma

Wide receiver, pass rusher, and offensive line are the big needs for the Panthers, and James Washington, selected by the Bills, could very well be their selection in the next mock. Instead, they end up with rising offensive tackle Orlando Brown who edges out wide receiver Christian Kirk for this spot.

James Washington
Clelin Ferrell (returned to school)
Courtland Sutton
Orlando Brown
Christian Kirk

25. Tennessee Titans - Sam Hubbard, DE, Ohio State

No change here and the margin is pretty close to the same. Harold Landry went a few picks earlier to the Lions, after appearing on 50 mocks for the Titans, leaving their second pick in Sam Hubbard who was on 40. Their third pick was a DE who went back to school, while their fifth pick was yet another DE. Pass rush is a clear need in Tennessee.

Harold Landry
Sam Hubbard
Clelin Ferrell (returned to school)
Denzel Ward
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo

26. Atlanta Falcons - Da’Ron Payne, DT, Alabama

An interior pass rusher is the most common pick for the Falcons and that plays out here. Four of their top five most mocked players are interior DL, with Vita Vea (Redskins) and Maurice Hurst (Cowboys) already off the board. That leaves Da’Ron Payne to the Falcons, having appeared on 33 mocks since the preseason.

Vita Vea
Maurice Hurst
Da’Ron Payne
Ronnie Harrison
Christian Wilkins (returned to school)

27. New Orleans Saints - Rashaan Evans, LB, Alabama

No change here for the Saints, though there’s only a small margin to their second choice. Evans netted 36 mocks to the Saints while Malik Jefferson of Texas landed on 32. It used to be popular to mock Baker Mayfield here, but that seems to have tailed off with Mayfield going much higher lately.

Rashaan Evans
Malik Jefferson
Harold Landry
Baker Mayfield
Tremaine Edmunds

28. Pittsburgh Steelers - Ronnie Harrison, S, Alabama

This is a team to watch on these consensus mocks as their top choice has a sizeable lead but has multiple contenders nipping at his heels. Ronnie Harrison leads with 54 mocks to Pittsburgh, but Rashaan Evans and Malik Jefferson are tied in second with 37 and gaining steam. Also gaining traction is VT linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, who clocked in fifth here with 22.

Ronnie Harrison
Rashaan Evans
Malik Jefferson
Josh Allen
Tremaine Edmunds

29. Jacksonville Jaguars - Mark Andrews, TE, Oklahoma

The only TE consistently getting first round buzz is Oklahoma’s Mark Andrews, and it’s usually to the Jaguars. He’s now tied with Lamar Jackson for the most mocked to the Jags with 46, with a wide receiver and three other quarterbacks following after. It’d be an interesting pick, but one I’m not sure it will hold as the draft nears.

Mark Andrews
Lamar Jackson
Courtland Sutton
Mason Rudolph
Josh Allen
Baker Mayfield
Orlando Brown

30. Minnesota Vikings - Billy Price, OC, Ohio State

The Vikings still look to bolster their interior line with Billy Price here, who leads with 50 mocks to Minnesota. A few DT follow after, but they’ve already been picked so the next most mocked is all the way down at Martinas Rankin with only 17 mocks.

Billy Price
Maurice Hurst
Da’Ron Payne
Vita Vea
Martinas Rankin

31. Philadelphia Eagles - Chukwuma Okorafor, OT, Western Michigan

Western Michigan’s star tackle is still the top most mocked player to the Eagles and has been mocked to the team the most in each of the past three months. Tackle has been a clear focus for mock drafters as we’ve seen 11 different tackles mocked to the Eagles at some point.

Chukwuma Okorafor
Derrius Guice
Martinas Rankin
Kolton Miller
Orlando Brown

32. New England Patriots - Taven Bryan, DT, Florida

With the Patriots top choice, Sam Hubbard, off the board to Tennessee and their second most mocked choice returning to school, that leaves them with their third most popular chose, Florida DT Taven Bryan. Though he’s only been mocked to the Pats 19 times, that’s still good enough for third most. He only holds a single mock lead over Derrius Guice and Harold Landry, however, and only two over the Patriots previous selection, Malik Jefferson.

Sam Hubbard
Austin Bryant (returned to school)
Taven Bryan
Derrius Guice
Harold Landry
Malik Jefferson

Wrap Up

So results were even more erratic than the last time! To address the elephant in the room, Minkah Fitzpatrick did not go in the first round of this mock draft. That happened last time, but that was by my own error. This time, it really was due to the math simply working out that way. Consistently getting mocked highly, he wasn’t any of the top teams’ most mocked player, which meant once we were outside of the top sven, we weren’t seeing him on mocks anymore. It’s an odd situation that wouldn’t happen in real life, but that’s why it’s fun to look at what ifs from a different angle.

Joshua Jackson, Sam Hubbard, Billy Price, Rashaan Evans, Mark Andrews and Chukwuma Okorafor all landed outside the top 32 most mocked players, but ended up on the consensus mock because they’re consistently mocked to the same teams.

Taven Bryan has only appeared on 87 of our 500 mocks, less than 20 percent, but sheer luck and numbers sees him at pick 32. Other than that, it plays out very similar to what a real world mock draft may look like. Let us know what you think!