FanPost

538 Playoff Percentages: Week 10 edition.



Week 10 has now passed and I once again turn to the 538 website to see what their computer models say about each NFL team making the playoffs. This week we include the percentage change from Week 9.

THE TOP 12! (The place to be)

L.A. Rams >99% +1%
Kansas City >99% --
New Orleans 99% +5%
New England 96% -2%
Pittsburgh 92% +11%
L.A. Chargers 92% +5%
Carolina 71% -4%
Houston 70% -2%
Chicago 70% +15%
Washington 66% +23%
Minnesota 63% +4%
Tennessee 62% +22%

THE CLOSING IN SIX!
Cincinnati 34% -20%
Seattle 29% -5%
Philadelphia 26% -34%
Dallas 26% -16%
Baltimore 24% --
Green Bay 24% +12%

THE WE ARE NOT THAT BAD SEVEN! ARE WE?

Atlanta 22% -22%
Indiana 12% +1%
Miami 11% -10%
Detroit 4% -5%
Jacksonville 2% -7%
Tampa Bay 2% -4%
Denver 1% -1%

THE CURRENT BOTTOM FEEDERS

Buffalo <1% --
Cleveland <1% --
N.Y. Giants <1% --
N.Y. Jets <1% -<1%
Arizona <1% --
San Francisco <1% --
Oak Vegas <1% --

It is still a bit too early and mathematically impossible to add or eliminate anyone from the Playoffs. So, in turn I present to you …

BIGGEST MOVERS AND SHAKERS

While no one has made or been eliminated from the Playoffs we have are first eliminations of any kind. Both Oak Vegas and San Francisco cannot mathematically win the first-round bye and their division.
The causalities are starting to fall.

The biggest Positive changes of the week. Washington +23, Tennessee +22, Chicago +15, Green Bay +12, Pittsburg +11 all had the best weeks.

I see Tennessee as being a in a precarious spot, they are one game up on Indianapolis and are playing very well, but so are the Colts. While the computer likes the Texans, this could be one division worth watching.

Chicago … shakes head. Take heart they currently have 4 picks in the draft before compensatory. We got 9 picks! (and 15 holes)

Green Bay is inching up, what a surprise. Said no one. They are currently in the best spot to nab a wildcard spot from Minnesota or Washington.

On the Negative side of things, the biggest drops of the week, Philadelphia -34%, Atlanta -22%, Cincinnati -20%, Dallas -16% and Miami -10%.

I am not a fan of Atlanta never really have been, seeing them lose to the Browns was awesome, Seeing Baker Mayfield say he woke up feeling dangerous. Priceless.

Dallas won and still dropped. Rare but they are in a tough spot being 2 games back and struggling still. However, Jerry Jones is uber confident in his team, and Colin Cowherd will spend days talking about Dak Prescott, much to his wife’s chagrin.

Other Movers and Shakers of note.

The New York Jets have joined the ranks of teams whose Playoffs odds are now under 1%. There are two Lions opponents who beat them whose playoff odds are under 1%. Stunning.

The Rams have all but mathematically clinched the division and a playoff spot. It’s only fair L.A. has nothing going for it. Ok all kidding aside, I know the wildfires in California have been terrible and I am praying for the people affected and doing all I can in my limited capacity. I could see the NFL because many Rams players and Staff were directed affected playing up the same angle as New Orleans/Katrina and frankly cities often rally around teams after a devastation. While anything can happen, I can sense … Rams or Saints vs. Chiefs, Pats or Steelers in the Super Bowl already. This season has less intrigue than past ones. At least for now.

The Patriots dropped 2 percentage points from 98% to 96%. Pure Panic in New England I am sure.

You will notice a lot of separation this week, once you get past the top 12 teams, there is a massive drop off. The simulators now after 10 weeks think they have enough information, they are confident in the odds of 12 teams to make it in, but leave room that others still have a chance. #12 Tennessee is at 62%, #13 Cincinnati 34% a 28-percentage point difference. We are at this point every team trying to get in needs to win and knows exactly who they need to see lose, or who they just need to see lose.

Oh, because I hate it, and yet it’s all we ever get here. Draft Talk! Our Lions (Grumble) are currently projected to have a record that would give them the 11th pick in the draft. 6.1 wins averaging all 100,000 simulations. However, this could all change for better or worse. They are only favored in the Arizona game the rest of the season according to the computer.


This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Pride Of Detroit or its writers.