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2018 NFL Mock Draft: Mathbomb Consensus 750

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We conveniently landed at 750 mocks before the Combine, which is our next stop on the Consensus

NCAA Football: Senior Bowl Glenn Andrews-USA TODAY Sports

With the Combine and pro day circuit, we’ve taken a bit of a break from the Consensus Mock Draft. When we last left, we had over 500 mocks and rising, and after playing a little bit of catch up we’ve got the tracker up to 750 mock drafts. Conveniently, we reached that number on the first day of the Combine, so it gives a nice cut off for what will be the next cycle of mocks and reactionary changes.

While, at first, I was just going to soldier through and catch up to present day, I ultimately decided that with the trades that have gone down in the past month we have an excellent opportunity to see how differently the consensus will shake out. So jumping in right away, let’s see how it goes!

If you’re not familiar with our Consensus Mock Drafts, check out the earlier versions below:

The shorthand version of how this works: I create a mock draft based off the most popular picks from my gathering of hundreds (in this case 750) of other mock drafts. The one catch: A team cannot pick a player already chosen in the draft.

1. Cleveland Browns - Sam Darnold, QB USC

Previous Pick - Same

Sam Darnold 314
Saquon Barkley 293
Minkah Fitzpatrick 225
Josh Rosen 168
Baker Mayfield 60

Darnold still holds onto the top spot, and he put some good distance between himself and the field since our last mock. Considering how he finished his pro day, I’d be surprised if anyone ever overtakes him.

2. New York Giants - Josh Rosen, QB UCLA
Previous Pick - Same

Not a lot of intrigue yet as the Giants have been favored in mock drafts to pick up a new signal caller. Rosen has a good amount of distance between him and the next most popular choice, so barring a trade this is likely to be the final pick once the consensus concludes.

Josh Rosen 276
Sam Darnold 161
Saquon Barkley 78
Connor Williams 32
Josh Allen 31

3. New York Jets - Baker Mayfield, QB Oklahoma
Previous Pick - Lamar Jackson

With the Jets taking over this pick from the Colts, we get some changes early on as their previous mock saw them taking Lamar Jackson after Baker Mayfield was taken. This time they get their guy in Mayfield, who will bring some excitement to the franchise when he gets his shot.

Baker Mayfield 150
Josh Allen 88
Josh Rosen 85
Lamar Jackson 85
Sam Darnold 77

4. Cleveland Browns - Saquon Barkley, RB Penn State
Previous Pick - Same

The Browns add one of the most dynamic runners in years with Saquon Barkley. Having already nabbed their top choice, they get their second one yet again with quarterbacks going in the previous two picks.

Sam Darnold 314
Saquon Barkley 293
Minkah Fitzpatrick 225
Josh Rosen 168
Baker Mayfield 60

5. Denver Broncos - Quenton Nelson, OG Notre Dame
Previous Pick - Baker Mayfield

With Baker Mayfield gone, the Broncos are forced to ‘settle’ for Quenton Nelson, who was their most mocked prospect. Nelson has cleanly overtaken Mayfield as the most mocked player to the Broncos, so even if they had the choice of both they would have went with the better blocker to improve their line. Nelson moves up a few spots as he had gone to the 49ers at ninth overall in the previous consensus.

Quenton Nelson 114
Baker Mayfield 99
Josh Allen 98
Josh Rosen 81
Sam Darnold 59

6. Indianapolis Colts - Bradley Chubb, DE NC State
Previous Pick - Same

The Colts drop back three spots and still come down with their guy. They picked Chubb at third overall last time and managed to get him all the same a few picks later. Had they not, they would have ended up with Key, who has slid fast down most boards this draft season.

Bradley Chubb 323
Saquon Barkley 114
Arden Key 44
Connor Williams 39
Minkah Fitzpatrick 38

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Minkah Fitzpatrick, CB Alabama
Previous Pick - Arden Key

The Buccaneers end up with Minkah Fitzpatrick, who they can immediately plug in at corner or safety to improve their defense. He overtook Arden Key by a wide margin in the lead up to the Combine and has only widened the gap since then.

Bradley Chubb 175
Minkah Fitzpatrick 114
Arden Key 65
Quenton Nelson 65
Derwin James 48

8. Chicago Bears - Calvin Ridley, WR Alabama
Previous Pick - Same

Despite the wide margin between Alabama’s Calvin Ridley and the other players listed, I wouldn’t call his lead safe. After a below average Combine, Ridley has seen his once soaring stock drop rapidly and I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see his 128 mock lead evaporate before the next consensus.

Calvin Ridley 208
Courtland Sutton 80
Minkah Fitzpatrick 62
Arden Key 54
Denzel Ward 41

9. San Francisco 49ers - Roquan Smith, LB Georgia
Previous Pick - Quenton Nelson

With their first two options off the board, the 49ers land a player often considered the best linebacker in the class in Roquan Smith. Smith has the potential to be the Patrick Willis type of team leader the 49ers have been lacking, and with a culture that seems bent on winning rather than rebuilding, that could be a huge spark.

Saquon Barkley 106
Quenton Nelson 93
Roquan Smith 59
Minkah Fitzpatrick 58
Denzel Ward 54

10. Las Vegas Raiders - Denzel Ward, CB Ohio State
Previous Pick - Roquan Smith

With their top option going in the previous pick, the Raiders end up with one of the fastest players of the draft class in Denzel Ward. Ward’s athleticism is off the charts, so he’s more than just a consolation prize for Las Vegas.

Roquan Smith 201
Denzel Ward 50
Tremaine Edmunds 40
Derwin James 34
Joshua Jackson 33

11. Miami Dolphins - Arden Key, DE LSU
Previous Pick - Derwin James

The Dolphins miss out on their top pick and the guy they used to be mocked the most is no longer in favor. Instead, they end up taking Arden Key, who has fallen down most mock drafts but had a sizable head start that he has yet to burn up. Key has loads of talent, but more flags than a UN Meeting.

Roquan Smith 73
Arden Key 52
Tremaine Edmunds 43
Derwin James 41
Minkah Fitzpatrick 29

12. Buffalo Bills - Maurice Hurst, DT Michigan
Previous Pick - Mason Rudolph

The Bills trade up and take a defensive tackle in this one, as Hurst overtook Rudolph by a single mock draft right before hitting 750 total mocks recorded. An odd choice, but what can you do? Math.

Maurice Hurst 89
Mason Rudolph 88
Lamar Jackson 86
Da’Ron Payne 78
Josh Allen 72

13. Washington Redskins - Derwin James, SS Florida State
Previous Pick - Vita Vea

The Skins take a player who echoes one of their most legendary players instead of addressing their defensive line. While this pick may draw scrutiny from draftniks if it happens, James will likely become an immediate fan favorite due to the parallels and comparisons to Sean Taylor.

Derwin James 134
Vita Vea 59
Calvin Ridley 53
Da’Ron Payne 41
Josh Allen 36

14. Green Bay Packers - Joshua Jackson, CB Iowa
Previous Pick - Same

Landing Joshua Jackson seemed like a lock for the Packers prior to the Combine, but I feel the next time we run a consensus we’ll see someone else here. Jackson had a fine Combine, but he ran a poorer than expected 40-yard dash and that will hurt him in some teams’ eyes. The Packers tend to be metrics cautious, so it might be them.

Joshua Jackson 99
Denzel Ward 78
Harold Landry 64
Arden Key 41
Marcus Davenport 37

15. Arizona Cardinals - Josh Allen, QB Wyoming
Previous Pick - Same

Mock drafters haven’t been very creative with the Cardinals, as most have had them taking a quarterback with their first-round pick. That hasn’t changed yet, and Josh Allen remained the Cardinals’ pick for another consensus.

Josh Allen 145
Lamar Jackson 72
Baker Mayfield 68
Mason Rudolph 61
Connor Williams 46

16. Baltimore Ravens - Courtland Sutton, WR SMU
Previous Pick - Same

No changes for Baltimore as they still take home Courtland Sutton in this consensus. With how drastically different the Combine played out for him and Calvin Ridley, it’s very possible the two of them switch places the next time we visit this.

Calvin Ridley 151
Courtland Sutton 135
Derrius Guice 65
James Washington 52
Christian Kirk 44

17. Los Angeles Chargers - Vita Vea, DT Washington
Previous Pick - Connor Williams

The Chargers lose out on their top pick in Derwin James and their previous top pick in Connor Williams had fallen out of favor. That leaves them to settle for a player I consider a top five in this class, Vita Vea. Heck of a haul at 17th overall.

Derwin James 85
Vita Vea 84
Mike McGlinchey 68
Orlando Brown 67
Connor Williams 61

18. Seattle Seahawks - Derrius Guice, RB LSU
Previous Pick - Same

Derrius Guice became a Seahawk in the last mock and he becomes one again here. No shame in stepping into Beast Mode’s vacated shoes.

Derrius Guice 75
Orlando Brown 66
Mike McGlinchey 63
Joshua Jackson 57
Derwin James 52

19. Dallas Cowboys - Da’Ron Payne, DT Alabama
Previous Pick - Maurice Hurst

The Cowboys lose out on their first three options either by virtue of having been picked already or having gone back to school. They still land a top defensive tackle in Da’Ron Payne, but having missed on him they would have ended up with a top slot receiving option instead.

Maurice Hurst 122
Christian Wilkins 76
Vita Vea 66
Da’Ron Payne 41
Courtland Sutton 34
Roquan Smith 28
Christian Kirk 26

20. Detroit Lions - Marcus Davenport, DE UTSA
Previous Pick - Harold Landry

The pre-Combine surge for Marcus Davenport was huge, and while I still contend that his tape screams Day 2 pick, his athleticism counters in Day 1 so this is where he ends up. It’s going to be an interesting battle to watch, as Harold Landry has closer ties to the team than Davenport (defensive coordinator instead of DL coach), and Landry had arguably the better Combine. This could go either way, unless Guice ends up falling away from the Seahawks.

Derrius Guice 127
Marcus Davenport 60
Arden Key 59
Harold Landry 47
Maurice Hurst 45

21. Cincinnati Bengals - Mike McGlinchey, OT Notre Dame
Previuos Pick - Same

Like the Colts, the Bengals were able to move down and still draft their top guy. Needing a tackle in a bad way, they would have had a shot at either of their fallback options.

Mike McGlinchey 173
Connor Williams 121
Orlando Brown 92
Quenton Nelson 59
Derwin James 43

22. Buffalo Bills - Mason Rudolph, QB Oklahoma State
Previous Pick - James Washington

The Bills end up getting their quarterback in the end. After trading up and landing a defensive tackle, the team takes their previous pick at 21 in the last mock at 22. James Washington has completely fallen off their radar despite being the pick here last time.

Maurice Hurst 89
Mason Rudolph 88
Lamar Jackson 86
Da’Ron Payne 78
Josh Allen 72

23. Los Angeles Rams - Isaiah Oliver, CB Colorado
Previous Pick - Denzel Ward

The mocks still haven’t caught up to the whirlwind trading the Rams have gifted us with this free agency. In the meantime, the consensus still had them taking a corner, though not their top choices who have now gone earlier.

Denzel Ward 74
Joshua Jackson 70
Isaiah Oliver 55
Carlton Davis 40
Billy Price 33

24. Carolina Panthers - James Washington, WR Oklahoma State
Previous Pick - Orlando Brown

Even before his horrific Combine, Orlando Brown had been falling out of favor. No more evident is that than in how far he’s fallen from teams like the Panthers in mocks. Once their top pick, he’s in a deep hole now, and it’s one that is only going to get deeper. Instead, the Panthers take James Washington, now freed up when the Bills went elsewhere with their picks.

James Washington 60
Christian Kirk 54
Courtland Sutton 49
Sam Hubbard 41
Orlando Brown 35

25. Tennessee Titans - Harold Landry, DE Boston College
Previous Pick - Sam Hubbard

What a coup for the Titans. Harold Landry wrecked the Combine, so I expect his stock to keep rising, but for now, he sits atop the Titans’ mock consensus and somehow ends up their pick even this late in the draft. If they missed him, they were going for a different pass rusher, so it’s clear where mock drafters see their needs.

Harold Landry 96
Sam Hubbard 62
Arden Key 39
Denzel Ward 39
Clelin Ferrell 34

26. Atlanta Falcons - Isaiah Wynn, OG Georgia
Previous Pick - Da’Ron Payne

With four of their five most mocked players on the interior of the defensive line, the Falcons somehow end up going on the interior of the other side of the ball in Georgia’s Isaiah Wynn. Having missed out on all of their top options, the Falcons simply go with the best player left for their needs.

Maurice Hurst 73
Vita Vea 73
Da’Ron Payne 68
Isaiah Wynn 46
Taven Bryan 42

27. New Orleans Saints - Rashaan Evans, LB Alabama
Previous Pick - Same

Second verse, same as the first. The Saints still need LB help and injecting some speed into their front seven would drastically help their defense. Most of their top mock picks are guys with speed on defense, with an outside chance they go tight end.

Rashaan Evans 68
Malik Jefferson 54
Harold Landry 35
Dallas Goedert 33
Tremaine Edmunds 32

28. Pittsburgh Steelers - Ronnie Harrison, S Alabama
Previous Pick - Same

Like our previous mock, the Saints steal one of the Steelers top options and they take another in Ronnie Harrison. It feels like the Steelers are trending towards taking a linebacker or safety, and this class plays into their draft tendencies of taking guys with wheels.

Rashaan Evans 95
Ronnie Harrison 84
Malik Jefferson 63
Josh Allen 31
Tremaine Edmunds 28

29. Jacksonville Jaguars - Mark Andrews, TE Oklahoma
Previous Pick - Same

This is probably the last time we see Mark Andrews in this spot. He’s been losing ground as a prospect as the Combine neared, and after underwhelming there, I’ve seen him almost completely drop off. He still holds a small lead for the Jaguars in this spot, however, so he’s the pick today.

Mark Andrews 73
Lamar Jackson 71
Courtland Sutton 49
Mason Rudolph 42
Dallas Goedert 40

30. Minnesota Vikings - Billy Price, OC Ohio State
Previous Pick - Same

Price had built himself a nice cushion in the later part of the first round of mocks, but an injury at the Combine will likely see him falling off of boards. Still, the Vikings would get a good player here if he were the pick.

Billy Price 84
Maurice Hurst 38
Kolton Miller 34
Da’Ron Payne 31
Will Hernandez 29

31. New England Patriots - Sam Hubbard, DE Ohio State
Previous Pick - Taven Bryan

The Pats have needed pass rush for years and they’ll attempt to fix that here with Sam Hubbard. Their fallback option of Harold Landry is already gone, but with all five of their top picks being defense it looks like mock drafters think the Pats need to add talent to their defense after losing Matt Patricia.

Sam Hubbard 63
Harold Landry 40
Taven Bryan 31
Isaiah Oliver 31
Ogbonnia Okoronkwo 26

32. Philadelphia Eagles - Chukwuma Okorafor, OT Western Michigan
Previous Pick - Same

The Eagles say goodbye to Jason Peters and need someone to step in and take that spot. After a poor showing at the Combine, you’re probably going to see Okorafor dropped off in mocks and replaced by Kolton Miller who currently comes in second for the Eagles and had a historic day at Indy.

Chukwuma Okorafor 54
Kolton Miller 40
Mike McGlinchey 35
Derrius Guice 31
Malik Jefferson 31

Wrap Up

  • Even before tanking the Combine, you saw Orlando Brown falling off mocks, but it was still a bit surprising to see him off before the Combine kicked off.
  • Connor Williams has been mocked in the first round 11th most of all players, but he was a snub here despite appearing in the top five of many teams.
  • Despite going to the Jets early in our last mock, Lamar Jackson completely disappeared out of sheer chance, but I expect that to be the case going forward after a lackluster Combine while others have been improving their stock.
  • Marcus Davenport has been mocked in the first only 34th most of all players, but almost all of that was since the month of November—a rapid rise I expect to continue after the Combine and pro day circuit.
  • All in all, this was a lot of fun to put together and I’m excited for where the Mock Tracker Consensus draft will end up in the next iteration. Almost a full month behind, the catch up may see the next round as early as next week as I hope to complete the tracker with over 1,000 mock drafts by April 1.