clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

2018 NFL mock draft tracker: Mathbomb Consensus 1,000

We’ve now eclipsed 1,000 mock drafts for our consensus, so who’s picking whom and where?

NFL: Combine Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

The shorthand version of how this works: I create a mock draft based off the most popular picks from my gathering of hundreds (in this case 1000) of other mock drafts. The one catch: A team cannot pick a player already chosen in the draft.

Well folks, I did it. Your friendly neighborhood completionist math nerd put together 1,000 mock drafts from May 2017 to the end of March 2018 to show just how often players are being mocked to every team. I am fully willing to concede that my sanity has taken a pretty big hit with this project, but in the meantime we’ve got some results to peruse.

If you’re not familiar with our Consensus Mock Drafts, check out the earlier versions below:


MathBomb Consensus 2018 NFL Mock Draft 1.0
2018 NFL Mock Draft: MathBomb Consensus Mock 2.0
2018 NFL Mock Draft: Consensus Mock 750

1. Cleveland Browns - Sam Darnold, QB USC

Previous Pick - Same

Sam Darnold 475
Saquon Barkley 419
Minkah Fitzpatrick 278
Josh Rosen 179
Josh Allen 90

The top still hasn’t changed and there isn’t really much ground moving in any direction. If anything, there’s a widening gap among mock drafters who feel that it’s Sam Darnold/Saquon Barkley at 1 and literally anyone else. Josh Allen, due to some recent rumors, has been surging of late, so he’s one to watch in this final stretch.

2. New York Giants - Josh Rosen, QB UCLA

Previous Pick - Same

Josh Rosen 326
Sam Darnold 200
Saquon Barkley 149
Josh Allen 50
Quenton Nelson 38

Like the Browns, there’s not much movement here. There’s a growing contingent that think the pick here is Quenton Nelson, but it’s mostly just the QBs here in most mocks.

3. New York Jets - Baker Mayfield, QB Oklahoma

Previous Pick - Same

Baker Mayfield 218
Josh Rosen 172
Josh Allen 135
Sam Darnold 91
Lamar Jackson 90

Despite adding 250 mocks since the last time, there won’t be a lot of changes at the top for most of these teams. It’s more the shuffling below that becomes interesting. Baker Mayfield has been a very popular pick for the Jets after trading up to this spot, but it’s actually Rosen who’s seen the biggest surge. The Jets are picking a QB, people are just trying to figure out which one.

4. Cleveland Browns - Saquon Barkley, RB Penn State

Previous Pick - Same

Sam Darnold 475
Saquon Barkley 419
Minkah Fitzpatrick 278
Josh Rosen 179
Josh Allen 90

As said before, there’s a pretty wide consensus as to what the Browns are doing here so far if they stay put. A fair amount still think it’s going to be Minkah Fitzpatrick if the Browns take a QB at 1, but Bradley Chubb has seen some movement lately.

5. Denver Broncos - Quenton Nelson, OG Notre Dame

Previous Pick - Same

Quenton Nelson 158
Baker Mayfield 146
Josh Allen 142
Josh Rosen 128
Sam Darnold 71

Why wouldn’t the Broncos take the best lineman in this draft if they have a shot at it? Well, if there’s a quarterback, of course! Barring the usual trade intrigue, I’d expect a QB or Nelson here.

6. Indianapolis Colts - Bradley Chubb, DE North Carolina State

Previous Pick - Same

Bradley Chubb 482
Saquon Barkley 139
Quenton Nelson 68
Arden Key 45
Connor Williams 39

Almost 150 of the 250 mocks since the last consensus were Chubb here, so he continues to be the heavy favorite for the Colts. Besides Chubb and Barkley, the only other player being picked often is Quenton Nelson, who overtook Minkah Fitzpatrick, Connor Williams, and Arden Key.

7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB Alabama

Previous Pick - Same

Minkah Fitzpatrick 207
Bradley Chubb 188
Derwin James 97
Quenton Nelson 90
Arden Key 66

As expected, Arden Key isn’t getting any play after having a poor draft season. Fitzpatrick has been a heavy favorite here, with James and Chubb behind lately.

8. Chicago Bears - Calvin Ridley, WR Alabama

Previous Pick - Same

Calvin Ridley 239
Quenton Nelson 94
Courtland Sutton 88
Denzel Ward 87
Minkah Fitzpatrick 79

In the previous consensus, I noted that Ridley’s massive lead was going to be closed, and after picking up only 31 of the last 250 mocks, you would think it would be closer. Unexpectedly, the other favorites have barely gotten any picks, and, instead, we’re seeing a huge surge for Quenton Nelson and others to Chicago. I don’t know where the next mock is going to be numbers wise, but Ridley’s lead might be too big for the newcomers to overcome.

9. San Francisco 49ers - Denzel Ward, CB Ohio State

Previous Pick - Roquan Smith

Quenton Nelson 114
Saquon Barkley 106
Denzel Ward 95
Roquan Smith 90
Minkah Fitzpatrick 80

Ward has seen a bit of a bump for the 49ers, but this has been a pretty split pick in mock drafts. The Browns rule the top of the draft, but the 49ers pick at ninth overall could set the tone for the next few picks in a lot of different ways.

10. Las Vegas Raiders - Roquan Smith, LB Georgia

Previous Pick - Denzel Ward

Roquan Smith 313
Tremaine Edmunds 85
Denzel Ward 82
Vita Vea 50
Derwin James 46

Smith has and continues to be the Raiders’ top pick in mocks. Only this time nobody else is snatching him up first, so they get their guy. Wtih Edmunds on his tail, linebacker seems to be the biggest perceived need.

11. Miami Dolphins - Tremaine Edmunds, LB Virginia Tech

Previous Pick - Arden Key

Quenton Nelson 126
Roquan Smith 100
Tremaine Edmunds 63
Derwin James 59
Baker Mayfield 59

With Key dropping off the map, The Dolphins have seen a ton of movement here. Most common is seeing Quenton Nelson here, but their pick of Tremaine Edmunds has been picking back up of late.

12. Buffalo Bills - Josh Allen, QB Wyoming

Previous Pick - Maurice Hurst

Josh Allen 120
Lamar Jackson 119
Mason Rudolph 109
Maurice Hurst 99
Da’Ron Payne 96

The previous pick here was Mo Hurst, though he was often mocked in the 20s rather than their new pick at 12. Things have evened out a bit since people realize they’re trading up for a QB (duh), and the big beneficiary of that has been Josh Allen in mocks. If the Bills trade up, or if he falls, he could be the pick here.

13. Washington Redskins - Derwin James, SS Florida State

Previous Pick - Same

Derwin James 178
Vita Vea 122
Calvin Ridley 72
Da’Ron Payne 56
Roquan Smith 49

Still no real movement here for the Skins at the top, but it’s actually Vita Vea who has seen the most movement. It wasn’t enough to overtake James in mocks, but it could be enough in the final stretch.

14. Green Bay Packers - Joshua Jackson, CB Iowa

Previous Pick - Same

Joshua Jackson 138
Denzel Ward 93
Marcus Davenport 90
Arden Key 43
Derwin James 39

No big changes for Green Bay, as has been the trend for most of these teams since the Combine, but one to watch as the Combine nears is Marcus Davenport who has been riding his great Combine like a pro.

15. Arizona Cardinals - Lamar Jackson, QB Louisville

Previous Pick - Josh Allen

Josh Allen 170
Lamar Jackson 136
Baker Mayfield 93
Connor Williams 75
Mason Rudolph 63

From one mobile quarterback to another, the Cardinals lose out on their top pick in mocks to pick up one of their fastest risers. Lamar Jackson has had a bumpy draft season, but he seems destined to be a first round pick for someone.

16. Baltimore Ravens - Courtland Sutton, WR Southern Methodist

Previous Pick - Same

Calvin Ridley 242
Courtland Sutton 169
Derrius Guice 74
James Washington 55
Christian Kirk 54

Courtland Sutton is still the pick, but with Calvin Ridley falling off the top of most mocks due to a poor Combine, he could end up being the consensus pick if the mock drafters relinquish that stranglehold on Ridley for the Bears.

17. Los Angeles Chargers - Vita Vea, DT Washington

Previous Pick - Same

Vita Vea 139
Derwin James 99
Mike McGlinchey 98
Da’Ron Payne 93
Connor Williams 75

Vea was already gaining ground on James for the Chargers at 17, but he’s more than overtaken him. With him becoming more popular earlier in the round, it may be out of reach in the middle of the round, but if the run on quarterbacks is real you could see a lot of talent drop.

18. Seattle Seahawks - Derrius Guice, RB Louisiana State

Previous Pick - Same

Joshua Jackson 94
Derrius Guice 88
Mike McGlinchey 87
Orlando Brown 73
Derwin James 70

While there was no change in the pick here, Joshua Jackson has actually been the hotter name this month for Seattle. Still, in this instance he’s off the board, which could put them as the top threat to take one of the better OL in the class instead.

19. Dallas Cowboys - Maurice Hurst, DT Michigan

Previous Pick - Da’Ron Payne

Maurice Hurst 132
Da’Ron Payne 84
Vita Vea 80
Christian Wilkins 76*
Courtland Sutton 59

Hurst has been popular for the Cowboys for a while, and while he’s still the top pick here he has only been mocked to the Cowboys 10 times in the past 250 mocks. Da’Ron Payne, who was their pick in the last consensus, has been a lot more popular. I expect this pick to be in a lot of flux, however, with the recent release of Dez Bryant.

20. Detroit Lions - Marcus Davenport, DE UTSA

Previous Pick - Same

Derrius Guice 187
Marcus Davenport 90
Harold Landry 70
Maurice Hurst 63
Arden Key 59

No change for the Lions here who, as I feared, saw Marcus Davenport picking up steam. Guice has actually been far more popular of a pick, though he’s off the board by the time they pick in this consensus.

21. Cincinnati Bengals - Mike McGlinchey, OT Notre Dame

Previous Pick - Same

Mike McGlinchey 206
Connor Williams 155
Orlando Brown 98
Quenton Nelson 66
Derwin James 51

The Bengals seem destined to take a top offensive lineman, likely a tackle, though few can agree on which one they’re taking. McGlinchey continues to be the most popular pick for the Bengals in mocks, but Connor Williams has picked up a lot of ground.

22. Buffalo Bills - Mason Rudolph, QB Oklahoma State

Previous Pick - Same

Josh Allen 120
Lamar Jackson 119
Mason Rudolph 109
Maurice Hurst 99
Da’Ron Payne 96

Though this is the same pick as it was in the last consensus, that made a lot more sense when they hadn’t already picked up a quarterback earlier in the round. I guess the good news in this consensus is that the Bills have twice the chances to hit on a quarterback!

23. New England Patriots - Sam Hubbard, DE Ohio State

Previous Pick - Isaiah Oliver (Rams)

Sam Hubbard 77
Harold Landry 51
Jaire Alexander 49
Isaiah Oliver 42
Taven Bryan 38

After trading Brandin Cooks to the Rams, the Patriots end up with an extra first-round pick and parlay that into a new pass rusher. Now that they’re picking earlier in the round, I expect a player or two to snatch this spot and hold onto it fairly quickly in mocks.

24. Carolina Panthers - Christian Kirk, WR Texas A&M

Previous Pick - James Washington

Courtland Sutton 76
Christian Kirk 72
James Washington 64
Sam Hubbard 48
Ronnie Harrison 39

The Panthers need a play-maker according to the consensus, and with James Washington having a poor Combine and subsequent draft season, the other receivers have picked up his slack in mocks.

25. Tennessee Titans - Harold Landry, DE Boston College

Previous Pick - Same

Harold Landry 135
Sam Hubbard 84
Arden Key 60
Rashaan Evans 41
Denzel Ward 39

People seem very key to give the Titans a pass rusher. Harold Landry has been popular, but his value has also been rising. This is also one of the few spots that Arden Key lands in the first round anymore, almost like some are holding onto the idea of him still going in the first despite so many signs to the contrary.

26. Atlanta Falcons - Taven Bryan, DT Florida

Previous Pick - Isaiah Wynn

Maurice Hurst 107
Taven Bryan 105
Da’Ron Payne 102
Vita Vea 80
Isaiah Wynn 76

The Falcons have had different picks in each of the Consensus mock drafts, taking Da’Ron Payne and then Isaiah Wynn, and now Taven Bryan. It’s clear the team needs an interior presence to pair with Grady Jarrett, and Bryan is the type of penetrating interior disruptor to do that.

27. New Orleans Saints - Rashaan Evans, LB Alabama

Previous Pick - Same

Rashaan Evans 81
Dallas Goedert 63
Malik Jefferson 57
Christian Kirk 42
Harold Landry 42

No change for the Saints at the top, but the need for a linebacker has taken the back seat to mock drafters trying to force a tight end (or in odd situations, two of them) in the first round. At least the Saints are seeing Dallas Goedert, a second-round talent, instead of Mark Andrews, a third round talent, like the Jaguars. Mike Gesicki has gained a ton of ground since the Combine and could be the pick in the next consensus.

28. Pittsburgh Steelers - Ronnie Harrison, FS Alabama

Previous Pick - Same

Rashaan Evans 142
Ronnie Harrison 106
Leighton Vander Esch 87
Malik Jefferson 79
Lamar Jackson 33

Still no change for the Steelers with the consensus pointing to one of the two Alabama defenders at 28.

29. Jacksonville Jaguars - Mark Andrews, TE Oklahoma

Previous Pick - Same

Lamar Jackson 94
Mark Andrews 83
Dallas Goedert 68
Courtland Sutton 65
Mason Rudolph 49

The only team to get mocked a tight end pretty much all the time is the Jaguars, though none of the tight ends are a combination of first-round athleticism and first-round tape. Andrews has actually been losing ground to other picks since an underwhelming Combine, and this is probably the last time he’s on a Consensus.

30. Minnesota Vikings - Billy Price, OC Ohio State

Previous Pick - Same

Billy Price 110
Kolton Miller 59
Isaiah Wynn 55
Will Hernandez 50
Maurice Hurst 50

Billy Price has been dropping off mock drafts swiftly since his Combine injury, but when he appears on a mock it’s normally to the Vikings at 30th overall. The only real change is that the need for an offensive lineman has pretty much become the universal selection in mocks for the Vikes.

31. New England Patriots - Jaire Alexander, CB Louisville

Previous Pick - Same

Sam Hubbard 77
Harold Landry 51
Jaire Alexander 49
Isaiah Oliver 42
Taven Bryan 38

After killing the Combine, Jaire Alexander has been jumping all over boards and in this instance lands with the Patriots after they landed a pass rusher earlier.

32. Philadelphia Eagles - Chukwuma Okorafor, OT Western Michigan

Previous Pick - Same

Chukwuma Okorafor 57
Kolton Miller 51
Derrius Guice 47
Mike McGlinchey 42
Malik Jefferson 37

Chukwuma Okorafor had an underwhelming Combine and since then has only appeared on mocks to the Eagles three times since our last consensus. As the last pick in the round, people like to throw random picks here rather than keying in on any need, so this could really go any way. This is usually the spot people threw Orlando Brown after his historically bad Combine...until their next mocks anyway.

Wrap Up

  • Connor Williams has been on the 11th most mock drafts of any player, appearing in the first round 847 times. And yet, he wasn’t the consensus top pick for any team, and wasn’t selected in this mock.
  • Arden Key and Orlando Brown have both been top 20 in first-round mocks, but both are afterthoughts at this point in the process. Brown after his terrible Combine and Key after a disappointing Combine followed by a poor pro day.
  • Leighton Vander Esch, Kolton Miller, and D.J. Moore, though not consensus here, have been rising swiftly after blowing up the Combine and they’re names to watch at the tail end of the first round.
  • Mark Andrews landed on our consensus, but he’s appeared in the first round only the 46th most of all players, only 203 out of 1,000 mocks.
  • Though talked about in the same breath as Saquon Barkley and Derrius Guice as a top rusher, Sony MIchel has only appeared on 46 first-round mocks since May, fewer than Bryce Love, who has long since returned to school and hasn’t been mocked since February (by people who didn’t know he’d returned to school).
  • Over 1,000 mock drafts, there have been 197 players mocked in the first round. That’s enough for a five-round mock draft.

Subscribe to PODD

After winning their first NFC North title in 30 years, the Lions have unfinished business this offseason. Stay updated with Jeremy Reisman through Pride of Detroit Direct, our newsletter offering up exclusive analysis. Sign up with NFCNORTH30 to get 30% off after your free trial.