Ask just about any football fan and they’ll tell you they’d rather their team trade down than trade up in the draft. Trading up is almost universally looked down upon as short-sighted and a huge risk. Considering how much of a crapshoot the NFL Draft is, going all-in on a single prospect can be extremely risky.
And that goes double in the first round, when trading up is extremely costly for a team. According to one of those newer model trade charts, a move from 20 overall to the No. 10 spot would cost a team a mid second-round pick.
But ESPN’s Bill Barnwell takes things a step further in this fascinating three-team trade. Not only does he have the Detroit Lions trading up in this scenario, but he has them moving all the way up to No. 6. In Rich Hill’s draft chart, that move should cost a team the 33rd overall pick (the first pick in the second round).
So what are the terms? Well, they’re actually quite reasonable:
Working on the annual mock draft of trades and had this one down for the Rams. LA gets their star edge rusher, Lions get the run plugger they badly need and Bradley Chubb to replace Ansah, Colts get two first-rounders. No more! pic.twitter.com/j9LoMRZwEp— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) April 4, 2018
To put more clearly:
- Round 1, Pick 6 (for NC State DE Bradley Chubb)
- Rams defensive tackle Michael Brockers
Lions give up:
- Ezekiel Ansah
- Round 1, Pick 20
- Round 3, Pick 18 (82nd overall)
Now before we get into this, we have to note that the trade is actually now impossible. The Rams no longer have the 23rd overall pick to use as trade capital because they sent it to the Patriots for Brandin Cooks on Tuesday. However, let’s just play around with the scenario since we’re already working with hypotheticals.
So the Lions would pick up the best edge rusher in this year’s class and a former first-round pick who has thrived as an interior defender alongside Aaron Donald. Not only is Michael Brockers a well-established run stuffer, but he is still only 27 years old. With the Lions shedding themselves of the inflated cap hit from Ezekiel Ansah’s franchise tag, they can easily fit Brockers’ $11 million cap hit this year (and $10.75 million next season).
Of course, their losses will be significant, too. The Lions may get their edge rusher of the future in Chubb, but they lose the services of Ansah, which, arguably, is a net loss for the 2018 season. Of course, that loss would immediately turn into a gain in 2019, considering Ansah’s future with the team is very much in doubt past this upcoming season, and they’d have Chubb on an extremely reasonable rookie deal.
However, losing a third-round pick may be more crushing to this team. The Lions have plenty of needs, and only six picks in the draft to address them. This trade would cost the Lions yet another pick, meaning they’d only have two picks in the first 116 players chosen.
Still, this trade is a lot more tempting than I thought any realistic trade-up scenario would ever be. Would you do it, assuming that Bradley Chubb was available?
Would you make this trade?
This poll is closed