Week 3 in the NFL will go down as Blood Week.
Things died. The natural course of the universe made sure of that. Nothing died on the gridiron, because I don’t think bugs have souls. That said, a lot of NFL teams showed their frail, deathly mortality.
And I have no idea how to treat it. I don’t think any team that played well last Sunday looks as good as they are; likewise teams that looked stellar probably aren’t (this, unfortunately, probably includes the Detroit Lions).
What did happen on Week 3 was a matter of collection. Teams were, in hindsight, due.
Let’s see if we’ve learned anything for Week 4, or if we’re just blindly charging on towards the inevitable collapse of the universe.
Minnesota +7 @ Los Angeles
The upside of a chaotic Week 3 is some prime value on a handful of matchups. Case in point, the Vikings aren’t the team that loses to the Bills every week, and scary as they have looked, the Rams aren’t invincible wunderkinds. Keep this one close on a short week.
New York +7.5 @ Jacksonville
Remember when the whole world was riding high on the Jets? Good times. Anyway, catching the hook-side of a touchdown is good value and the Jaguars have proven to be a vulnerable squad that feasted on some bad teams (yes, the Pats are a bad team) to start the season.
Green Bay vs. Buffalo UNDER 45
There’s a good number of lines that are just outrageous and stupid this week, spurred by deathly things in the NFL. Here, Buffalo is catching 10.5 points. That’s a recipe for chaos. I’ll just wager the total instead.
New Orleans -3.5 @ Giants
It’s rare to catch this sort of line and I paused before taking it. I dislike road favorites, and I certainly dislike a hook-side of a field goal. Nevertheless I still think this line is safe to bet on the Saints.
Oakland vs. Cleveland OVER 45
It would be imprudent to judge here if Cleveland—having won their first game since 2016—could go on a winning streak, or if Oakland—a garbage receptacle of a team—could get their first win against this self-same Browns squad. It’s better to just guess the score.
Houston +1.5 @ Indianapolis
The Texans have made 6.1 yards per play and are winless in the NFL. That sort of trend is unsustainable. Take them.
Kansas City -5 @ Denver
Call it a hunch. A really dumb hunch but whatever.
All the rest
Dallas vs. Detroit UNDER 44
Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore OVER 50.5
Seattle -3 @ Arizona
Miami +7 @ New England
Atlanta vs. Cincinnati UNDER 50.5
Los Angeles vs. San Francisco UNDER 46.5
Chicago -3 vs. Tampa Bay
Philadelphia -4 @ Tennessee