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Sunday open thread: How many points will the Lions need to beat the Packers?

What’s the magic number?

NFL: Detroit Lions at Philadelphia Eagles Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

The Lions have won four straight against the Green Bay Packers and look to make it five following their trip to Lambeau Field on Monday night. In those last four games, the Lions scored at least 30 points, but with a revamped Packers defense, it might be a little tougher for Detroit to pile up the points.

November 6, 2017: Lions 30, Packers 17
December 31, 2017: Lions 35, Packers 11
October 7, 2018: Lions 31, Packers 23
December 30, 2018: Lions 30, Packers 0

Over the past two years, the Lions have done a great job of limiting Green Bay’s offense. They allowed them to eclipse 20 points just once in four games. In that one game, Aaron Rodgers went off with over 400 passing yards and three touchdowns, but most of those yards came with Rodgers and the offense playing catch-up down by two-plus scores.

This year, Green Bay’s offense continued to struggle during the early season, but has since found its stride. The defense has been more consistent, and aside from getting trampled over by the Eagles, they have been what has carried the Packers to their wins.

Today’s Question of the Day is:

How many points will it take for the Lions to beat the Packers?

My answer: The magic number for me is 27. Although we’ve only seen Rodgers play for about a game and a half against Patricia’s Lions, I think they dialed up the perfect formula to mitigate the damage from Green Bay’s offense and keep Rodgers from making throws out of the pocket, where he is most lethal.

I don’t think the trickiest part is going to be stopping the Packers from scoring points. I think scoring 27 or more on Green Bay will be the challenge. The Lions have struggled in the run game throughout the season and has relied on its passing game to get them out of tough situations, but they have not faced a secondary like the Packers’ unit yet. It will be key for Detroit to put themselves in third-and-short situations and lucky for them, the Packers rank 28th in run defense DVOA via Football Outsiders.

If the Lions manage to score at least 27 points, I think they’ll escape with their first divisional win on the season.

Your turn.

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