FanPost

Vindicating Math, NFL Averages and why it all matters!

We all saw it, and we all know what happen by now last Monday.

Since then the reactions from Media, Fans and even some former players have been constant, loud and uniform.
There are still a few people who pound the mantra. "The Lions should have done more to win, and this wouldn’t have mattered, its still their fault they lose not the refs."
This is said mostly by Packer fans, and Aaron Rodgers Media homers, like Colin Cowherd. I am sure next Sunday night Chris Collingsworth will have his lips firmly back on A-A-Ron’s Butt.

For the rest of the people who say that, the man on the street. Let me show you a different angle. A mathematical angle.

*Numbers all from Pro Football Reference.

In 2018, their 256 regular season games, meaning a team took the field 512 times.
There were 5740 total drives in those 256 games, meaning each NFL team averaged 11.21 drives per game. The Bengals had the lowest average number of drives at 10.6 per game. On the other side of the state the Browns had 12.625 for the highest number of drives. This mean the total number average of drives between the team with the most drives and least was 2.

The average drive was 2 minutes and 42 seconds. This included the Saints who had the best at
3:02, the Cardinals were last at 2.16 and the Lions were 5th overall at 2.54 … above average.

These drives often resulted in points.

808 ended in Field goals. 38.4% of all scoring plays and just 14% of all drives. Houston had the most at 37, the Cardinals had the least at 12 (And they say who your fantasy kicker is doesn’t matter!?) and the Lions came in tenth on the list with 28 made.
Touchdowns occurred 847 (Passing) and 439 (Rushing) making up the 61.6% of the scoring drives and touchdowns were the end result in 22.3% of all drives. I am not going to comment much on drives that ended on fumbles, interceptions, kickoff and such for touchdowns returned by the defense for touchdowns. Which totaled 85 and was 1.5% of all drives.

Not included the 85 miscellaneous touchdowns, scoring was done on 36.5% of all drives.

Each drive in the NFL in 2018 … counting everyone … averaged 2.00 points per drive. The best team the Saints was as high 2.96, the Cardinals last at 1.09.

Let’s compare these averages to the Monday Nights Lions-Packers matchup.

The Lions had 11 drives. I at the moment am including the one at the end of the first half that was 7 total seconds for one play. They scored on 6 of them. They scored on 55% of their drives. 20% better than the NFL average last year. So then using last year’s average of 2.00 points per drive, would have scored 22 points which is what they did. They were above average in one category and right at average in another. IF YOU TAKE OUT the drive at the end of the first half … they scored on 60% of their plays. Using NFL averages at 2.0 points per drive they should have scored 20 but were slightly above average at 22.

Going one step further at 10 drives, they had less than the NFL 2018 average of 10.6 per game but in points, scoring drives and had a higher scoring percentage success than any NFL team last year, crushing the Saints and Chiefs who both peaked just over 50%.

The one thing I will say is the Lions averaged on 10 drives one TD which is 10% and the league average in 2018 was 22.3%


The Packers had 10 total drives and scored on 5 of them.
50% scoring on drives is still up they among the 2018 best but not as good as the Lions that night.
They should have averaged 20 points, they got 23. Slightly above the 2018 average.

The Lions held them to less drives, 10, then the average team got in 2018 and yes while scoring 2 touchdowns, they were still just under the NFL average in 2018 20% compared to 22.3%. So, both were below league average, so there is that.

This is where, I take on the, "If they had just played better."

Say the first hands to the face penalties never happened.

Now the Packers still have "10 drives."
One drive now ended in a touchdown, not two leaving them at the same percentage of TD scorinf drives as the Lions.

Taking it one step further, with no second touchdown and everything else remained the same say they still just kick the field-goal at the end of the game with a minute or so left the game. The score is 16 to 22 at best and now have to on-side kick. This would mean the Packers scored on 4 of the 10 drives, which is a lower average than the Lions that night and just a couple percentage points above the 2018 league average.

The first penalty had a ripple effect at the end of the game. All scenarios are now changed because Trey was not flagged the first time. They are down 9 in this scenario and either have to kick a field goal like discussed above and on-side kick it or go for the TD, down 9! They can't run out the clock. We don't have to use our time outs.

If he was not flagged for the first and second time, they have to go for all the marbles and if they failed at the TD or field goal at the end of the game their scoring rate would now be at 30% which is below the 2018 league average.

Keeping them below league average is … winning.

Say only the second one was not called. We would get the ball back, with Stafford, Jones, Golloday and Prater down 1 at worse with say 45-55 seconds left. Are chances of winning being better than the average NFL team, and most unbiased NFL fans know it. What a better finish!


Those two drives not ending when they should have gave the Packers extra points, plain and simple. You take out the average points per drive in 2018 (2.00) on just one of those two bogus Packers drives we win. You take them both out, we do even better.


By calling those two bogus penalties at such critical times in the game the refs in an average game swung the point totals +4 to the Packers and -2 to the Lions.

By giving the Packers those penalties you essential gave them 12 drives not 10. In a league where a team scores on 36.5%, of drives this is huge. I also noticed on Pro Football Focus just about every playoff team had scoring averages in 40%+ and as stated earlier some 50%+ which for the math novice is pretty much 1 in 2. You gave the Packers 2 extra drives. You essential gave them points. This was done at a time when time was critical, the second one more so it effected clock management on every level in every way. Had these bogus calls not happened the defense would have held the Packers below or at the NFL 2018 scoring average if not for these calls while are offense was at or above 2018 averages.

By all defensive and offensive measures, the Lions by these numbers outplayed the Packers, had this been an average NFL game, by every measure and facet we win. However this was NOT your average NFL game because there was a third team on the field …the NFL refs changed the numbers plain and simple.

(I not always the best editor but I tried, I hope this makes sense. Any questions, comments, so on, please don't hesitate to pop them below.)





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