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NFL Week 5 picks against the spread: Just dab it

Chris’ record dips lower and Ryan starts to gloat.

William Hill Sportsbook Press Conference Photo by Ned Dishman/NBAE via Getty Images

Another week, another slate of games.

I, Ryan, decided to take care of the introduction this time so Chris could have himself some reprieve. It’s what friends are for—and also to remind you that you need to have a stroke of luck this week to keep up with my pace. It is me, the pace car.

(All lines taken from Westgate Superbook around Wednesday evening)

Chris’s Record: 13-16

Ryan’s Record: 12-11

Green Bay at Dallas -3.5

Chris: The Battle of the Frauds is on in full effect. Who knows if Green Bay has truly earned its seat at the high table when they’re screwing up late-game decisions with galaxy brains? Who knows if Dallas actually has an offense? The line itself screams the uncertainty, with Dallas getting naught but the appropriate line for home field advantage.

On the other hand, the Packers have extra rest and Aaron Rodgers (3-0 in AT&T Stadium, 6-2 against Dallas all time), while the Cowboys have, uh, one of the top offensive DVOA scores that’s built almost entirely upon three of the worst teams in the NFL and a flailing loss to the Saints. Expecting correction and taking points in the process. I love the hook baby! Green Bay +3.5.

Ryan: I will not root for the Packers. I will not root for the Packers. I will not root for the Packers.

Chris’ heel turn is finally complete with the inclusion of this good-for-nothing game. As Chris mentioned, I don’t believe in either of these teams—and just so you believe me, I think more of the Lions than I do either of these two fakes. Dallas -3.5.

Chris: He tasks me! He tasks me, and I shall have him!

Ryan: Had to use Google to find out if this was something from JoJo or Star Trek.

I was right.

Chicago -5.5 at Oakland

Ryan: It’s October and that means it’s Halloween. Nothing will be as terrifying as Khalil Mack exacting revenge on the Oakland Raiders. No one is safe, not even Jon Gruden. RIP in pieces, Derek Carr and whatever tackle becomes Mack’s plaything on Sunday. Legitimately, will Mack set the record for QB hurries while on foreign soil? Will someone try to run an anti-American smear campaign against Mack’s eventual Hall of Fame induction with this statistic at the forefront? It’s only as ridiculous as it sounds. Chicago -5.5.

Chris: Who knew all it took to get Vontaze Burfict banned for a whole damn season was to trade out the Bengals uniform for silver and black? Yeah, playing on a team with national attention and who garners plenty of fans regardless of their terrible play rather than slumming it in Cincinnati suddenly means you’re going to get spotted a lot faster and punished a lot harder when you’re out for a hit job.

I won’t sit and wring my hands over how I feel as a writer about his hits. At some point I’ve become comfortable with the violence in the NFL as far as what it does to the players bodies. I don’t like it, but nothing Burfict or anyone else does suddenly reminds me about the grave seriousness of brain injuries. Maybe it’s because I’m a boxing fan. But I don’t need any of that to know that Burfict is a stain on the game itself because he’s just a damn filthy weasel.

I’m with Ryan, this game is spooky. Mack is out for revenge and there’s absolutely no value in betting Oakland with points. Chicago -5.5.


Jacksonville at Carolina -3.5

Chris: Who knew this could be so exciting? We’ve got two young quarterbacks out of nowhere lighting it up. Neither have yet to show defeat to the spread either.

But, in general, both teams are fairly under-challenged, in part due to the change with their quarterbacks. Do we know what we got when the Jags beat up the Titans and Broncos, or the Panthers when they’ve feasted on Houston and Arizona?

Nevertheless, Carolina’s defense is legitimately strong through the first four games of the season, with the fourth best pass defense DVOA in the league to show for it. With chaos manning the helm at quarterback for both teams, that’s something I can trust here. Minshew-mania is about to take a small trim to the hair. Carolina -3.5.

Ryan: Normally, in a game like this, I’d side with the home team. Spread is just about where it should be, these teams are evenly matched... or so Vegas thinks.

What can be said about Gardner Minshew that hasn’t already been said? His legend grows by the week. Sometimes, statistics are worth considering, like how Minshew earned a 93.8 grade from Pro Football Focus on throws of 10+ yards en route to earning PFF Offensive Rookie of the Month honors for September:

In this case, throw the numbers out the window; there’s but one thing to think about: Minshew leading those jungle cats. Jacksonville +3.5.

Arizona at Cincinnati -3

Ryan: I’m over selecting the attractive matchups. I want the ugly underbelly of the NFL week to week and here it is, smack dab in the middle of Ohio—objectively speaking the worst stretch of land on this continent.

Poor A.J. Green. You know things are a tire fire when your franchise’s best player is so blown away by the offense’s incompetence that his spirit is literally trying to escape his corporeal shell. More eye rolls in this one clip than the Undertaker and every fan watching does during an episode of RAW. Arizona +3.

Chris: South Ohio. South part of Ohio is the worst, and really if you think about it’s just Kentucky anyway.

Ryan’s placed this absolute turd on my desk and asked me to pick between a winless team I know to be objectively terrible and a winless team I know to also be objectively terrible that is travelling east from the Pacific time zone. He knows how to tank my record, and I blame this solely on him and not any of the terrible games I’ve picked in the past.

Ryan: Sabotage, it’s a sabotage.

Chris: There’s nothing to say about either of these teams. Who cares about them? Not you, this is a site ostensibly for Lions fans, you’re not watching either team. Cincinnati -3.

Personal Picks


Baltimore -3 at Pittsburgh
Indianapolis at Kansas City UNDER 56
New Orleans -3 vs. Tampa Bay


Minnesota at New York Giants +5.5
Buffalo at Tennessee OVER 38.5
Tampa Bay at New Orleans OVER 47

Will the Dolphins Washington beat the spread?

The Dolphins are free this week from torment and pain. Bless them.

Current line: New England -15.5 at Washington

Washington record ATS: 1-3

Chris: In my work NFL predictions pool I took “Jay Gruden getting fired midseason” as my “out on a limb” prediction. I didn’t think it was that much out there given that this organization is made of poop and gasoline.

Washington sucks and they’re playing the Patriots who have been unreal on defense. Nothing else to say. New England -15.5.

Ryan: What an absolute gong show the Washington professional football team is this season. Jay Gruden is actually a pretty good coach. How many of us have already forgotten that Washington was in the driver seat of the NFC East last year until Alex Smith broke his leg?

#FreeTrentWilliams New England -15.5.

BovadaKing69 Special

It’s the bye week for the Detroit Lions, just as it is for this mysterious “Bovada King.”

For he is only as mysterious as his 0-3 record. SpooOOoOoOOoOoky.

BK69’s Record: 0-3

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