Monday open thread: What draft pick will the Lions get?

Let us cut to the chase: the 2019 Detroit Lions season has been a disaster.

As the Lions finish their remaining games of the year, we are left wondering whether they will emerge with any additional wins. It is not fair to say that the games do not matter, because every snap is important to an NFLer looking to earn some job security. However, from the perspective of fans, with the season being lost, the true value of these final games are in draft position.

The current 2020 NFL Draft order after Week 13 has Detroit sitting at sixth overall — the Seahawks and Vikings game on Monday does not affect the Lions’ imminent draft spot. The Lions got some added help from the teams below them with some critical wins. Now, sitting at 3-8-1, the Lions are within striking distance of the top three. The Giants (2-10) are holding down the number two spot, while Washington, the Dolphins, and the Falcons are sitting at 3-9. The Lions’ tie throws some chaos into the formula, but they have a good chance to move up.

Today’s Question of the Day is:

What draft pick will the Lions get?

My answer: Let’s break down the remaining schedules of the bottom seven teams, the Cardinals included.

• Cincinnati Bengals: 1-11 — at Browns, vs. Patriots, at Dolphins, vs. Browns

I think Cincinnati is well-entrenched at the number one overall pick. They could win against the Dolphins, but the Patriots and Browns are tough matches. Let’s slot them at 1-15.

• New York Giants: 2-10 — at Eagles, vs. Dolphins, vs. Washington, vs. Eagles

This is a tough call, given that two of their remaining matches are against bottom-five teams. The Eagles games should be losses, however. Let’s give them a win over Washington and a loss to the Dolphins. 3-13.

• Washington: 3-9 — at Packers, vs. Eagles, vs. Giants, at Cowboys

Washington is a likely candidate to lose out the season, with the divisional match against the Giants being the lone close game. However, I gave the Giants the edge above. 3-13.

• Miami Dolphins: 3-9 — at Jets, at Giants, vs. Bengals, at Patriots

Miami has three winnable games, and given the recent resurgence, it would not be out of the question for the Fish Tank to come alive. As well, the Patriots might rest their starters in Week 17 if they have a playoff spot secure. Maybe I’m a believer in Brian Flores, but I’m giving them wins over the Jets, Giants, and Bengals. 6-10.

• Atlanta Falcons: 3-9 — vs. Panthers, at 49ers, vs. Jaguars, at Buccaneers

Atlanta is a team that still surprises me, given how potent their offense should be. Still, their defense is lackluster, and their run game has been a disappointment all season. I think the Panthers and Buccaneers games are winnable, but this Falcons team is incredible unreliable. I’ll give them a win over just the Panthers. 4-12.

• Detroit Lions: 3-8-1 — at Vikings, vs. Buccaneers, at Broncos, vs. Packers

Enough has been said about the disappointing Lions season. The Vikings and Packers should easily be losses. The Lions defense has been so pitiful that the Buccaneers should have an explosive offensive outing, and the Broncos’ Drew Lock could look like the second coming of John Elway. The tie could end up costing them a draft spot. 3-12-1.

• Arizona Cardinals: 3-8-1 — vs. Steelers, vs. Browns, at Seahawks, at Rams

In my opinion, the Cardinals have little chance of winning any of their remaining games, unless the Steelers have a defensive collapse and the Browns end up floundering. Of the teams vying for a top pick, I believe Arizona has looked much better than their record indicates. Still, they have a tough slate of teams. 3-12-1.

Of the teams I have listed, here are my projected standings. Note that this list does not include the teams sitting at 4-8: the Jaguars, Jets, Chargers, or Broncos. They could all challenge for a spot in the top 6, but the Lions should stay ahead of them barring some late season wins.

1. Cincinnati: 1-15
2. New York Giants: 3-13
3. Washington: 3-13
4. Detroit: 3-12-1
5. Arizona: 3-12-1
6. Atlanta: 4-12
7. Miami: 6-10

The fourth overall pick seems like a reasonable spot for the Lions to pick. If they want to go higher, they will need some upsets to happen.

Your turn.