There comes a time in every mock draft cycle in which a consensus starts to form. Whether it’s group think or just a result of seeing similar mock drafts over and over again, typically favorites emerge for every team and that become the pick for everyone.
Two weeks ago when we first started tracking mock drafts, there seemed to be a growing consensus that Auburn defensive tackle Derrick Brown would make for a good fit in Detroit. It made sense, too. He’s a run stuffing defender that flashes some pass rush, and the Lions desperately need all the help they can get in the interior.
But flash forward two weeks and these mock drafts are singing a completely different tune. It’s all about Ohio State cornerback Jeff Okudah, and there are barely any exceptions.
1/29/20 - NFL.com (Bucky Brooks) - Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah
1/29/20 - NFL.com (Lance Zierlein) - Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah
1/31/20 - The Draft Network (Carter Donnick) - **trade down** Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah (5), Iowa EDGE A.J. Epenesa
2/2/20 - The Detroit News (Justin Rogers) - Auburn DT Derrick Brown
2/3/20 - CBS Sports (Ryan Wilson) - Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah
2/3/20 - PFF (Michael Renner) - **trade down** Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah (5) **trade up** Utah State QB Jordan Love
2/3/20 - The Draft Network (Kyle Crabbs) - **trade down** Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah
2/3/20 - ESPN (Todd McShay) - Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah
2/3/20 - Bleacher Report (Matt Miller) - Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah
2/4/20 - USA Today (Nate Davis) - Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah
2/4/20 - The Athletic (Dane Brugler) - **trade down** Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah
2/5/20 - CBS Sports (Chris Trapasso) - Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah
2/6/20 - The Draft Network (Jonah Tuls) - Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah
2/6/20 - Sporting News (Vinnie Iyer) - Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah
2/6/20 - Draft Wire (Luke Easterling) - **trade down** Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah (5), Penn State EDGE Yetur Gross-Matos
2/6/20 - CBS Sports (R.J. White) - Auburn DT Derrick Brown
2/6/20 - Detroit Free Press (Dave Birkett) - Ohio State EDGE Chase Young
2/7/20 - Real GM (Jeff Risdon) - Ohio State EDGE Chase Young
2/7/20 - SI.com (Kevin Hanson) - **trade down** Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah
2/10/20 - SB Nation (Dan Kadar) - **trade down** Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah (5), LSU EDGE K’Lavon Chaisson (18)
2/10/20 - The Draft Network (Jordan Reid) - Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah
2/10/20 - Yahoo Sports (Eric Edholm) - Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah
(Note: I’m not including the second first-round picks in some trade-down mocks)
Jeff Okudah - 18 of 22 - 82% (up 17%)
Derrick Brown - 2 of 22 - 9% (down 21%)
Chase Young - 2 of 22 - 9% (up 9%)
Isaiah Simmons - 0 of 22 - 0% (down 5%)
All but three of these mock draft taken exclusively from the past two weeks have Okudah as the pick. The Isaiah Simmons hype lasted exactly a couple weeks, and Derrick Brown is sliding down boards for no particular reason.
Everyone seems to agree at this point, when it comes to a mix of talent, value and fit, Jeff Okudah checks every box for the Detroit Lions.
7 of 22 - 32%
- 7 of 7 trades with Dolphins
Trades aren’t all that common in Mock Drafts, as they are impossible to predict and some just don’t want to put in the extra work (and I don’t blame them for something as trivial as mock drafting). But it’s pretty extraordinary to see 32 percent of the mocks believe the Lions will trade down.
Particularly interesting is that every single trade down is the same. Move back to five with the Dolphins and still take Okudah. Although, the compensations vary wildly among the mocks. For example, SB Nation’s Dan Kadar has the Lions netting Miami’s next first-round pick (18) and grabbing LSU defensive end K’Lavon Chaisson. However, the Draft Network’s Carter Donnick, Draft Wire’s Luke Easterling and PFF’s Michael Renner all have Detroit trading for Miami’s 26th overall pick. Everyone else has a hodgepodge of second and third-round picks heading Detroit’s way.
Local results (Lions beat writers only)
Writers included: Dave Birkett, Justin Rogers, Jeff Risdon
Jeff Okudah: 1 of 3 - 33.3%
Chase Young: 1 of 3 - 33.3%
Derrick Brown: 1 of 3 - 33.3%
It’s a bit strange that the most variety in the mock drafts come from the local writers. Maybe this is an attempt to stand out, maybe this is a true belief. That being said, I think the local mock drafts hold a little more value, seeing as they likely have a better grasp on what the team need, so that fact that there isn’t a consensus locally could mean that we’re all jumping to conclusions with Okudah.