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Detroit Lions mock draft tracker 6.0: Trade scenarios on the rise

Over a third of mock drafts are now predicting the Lions to trade down.

By Jeremy Reisman

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2018 NFL Draft Photo by Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

Now that we’re closing in on the 2020 NFL Draft, the news and rumors really start flying. As teams zero in on their final big boards and run through simulation after simulation, information spreads like wildfire. The problem is no one knows fact from fiction at this point.

Teams are desperate to send out false information to hide their intentions, but real news often leaks too. Take the reporting on the Detroit Lions over the past week, for example. We’ve heard that the Lions are listening hard to trade down offers, but they’ve also been aggressively talking to highly-touted quarterbacks recently. Pursuing both of those would seem to be mutually exclusive, so these actions send confusing signals to the rest of the league.

What impact has that had on mock drafts from the last two weeks? Let’s take a look at 25 of the most recent mocks and see what trends emerge.

Previously:

4/1/20 - Bleacher Report (Matt Miller) - Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah
4/1/20 - MLive (Kyle Meinke) - Ohio State EDGE Chase Young
4/2/20 - CBS Sports (Will Brinson) - Ohio State EDGE Chase Young
4/2/20 - Detroit Free Press (Dave Birkett) - Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah
4/2/20 - MLive (Benjamin Raven) - **trade down** Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah (6th)
4/6/20 - SB Nation (Dan Kadar) - **trade down** Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah (6th)
4/7/20 - NFL.com (Daniel Jeremiah) - Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah
4/7/20 - Touchdown Wire (Doug Farrar) - Ohio State EDGE Chase Young
4/7/20 - Fox Sports (Jason McIntyre) - Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah
4/7/20 - PFF (Sam Monson, Steve Palazzolo) - **trade down** Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah (5th)
4/8/20 - CBS Sports (Chris Trapasso) - **trade down** Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah (5th)
4/8/20 - Sporting News (Vinnie Iyer) - Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah
4/8/20 - PFF (Michael Renner) - **trade down** Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah (5th)
4/9/20 - CBS Sports (Pete Prisco) - Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah
4/10/20 - Establish the Run (Evan Silva) - **trade down** Auburn DT Derrick Brown (6th)
4/11/20 - Draft Wire (Luke Easterling) - Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah
4/12/20 - CBS Sports (Tyler Sullivan) - **trade down** Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah (5th)
4/12/20 - The Athletic (Chris Burke, Nick Baumgardner) - **trade down** Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah (6th)
4/13/20 - CBS Sports (Ryan Wilson) - Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah
4/13/20 - Touchdown Wire (Mark Schofield) - Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah
4/13/20 - The Athletic (Dane Brugler) - Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah
4/14/20 - CBS Sports (Tom Fornelli) **trade down x2** Auburn DT Derrick Brown (14th)
4/14/20 - NFL.com (Bucky Brooks) - Auburn DT Derrick Brown
4/14/20 - Houston Chronicle (Aaron Wilson/John McClain) - Clemson LB Isaiah Simmons
4/14/20 - ESPN (Mel Kiper Jr.) - Ohio State CB Jeff Okudah

Results

Jeff Okudah - 18 of 25 - 72% (no change)
Chase Young - 3 of 25 - 12% (down 4%)
Derrick Brown - 3 of 25 - 12% (up 8%)
Isaiah Simmons - 1 of 25 - 4% (down 4%)
Tua Tagovailoa - 0 of 25 - 0% (no change)

Virtually no change in results here. In terms of who the Lions are picking, the results have remained incredibly consistent: Okudah is the run-away favorite to be the pick. The only significant difference here is that Derrick Brown is creating some momentum. It’s important to note, though, that two of the three writers that mocked Brown to Detroit had him drafted in a trade-down scenario. Only one—NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks—had the Lions taking Brown at third overall.

Trades!

9 of 25 - 36% (up 16%)

Here’s where we saw the most difference in mock draft. Since we started tracking mocks in January, this is the highest percent of drafts that had the Lions trading down. The split was relatively even between the Dolphins (5) and the Chargers (6) as the trade down partner, with one unconventional mock having Detroit trade all the way back with the Jaguars at nine, then even further back with the Buccaneers at 14.

As for the players picked in trade down scenarios, here was the breakdown:

  • 7 of 9 - Jeff Okudah
  • 2 of 9 - Derrick Brown

Local results (Lions beat writers only)

Writers included: Dave Birkett, Kyle Meinke, Benjamin Raven, Chris Burke/Nick Baumgardner)

Jeff Okudah: 3 of 4 - 75%
Chase Young: 1 of 4 - 25%

Again, the local beat remains extremely static. The likes of Dave Birkett, Chris Burke, and Justin Rogers have remained pretty stout that Okudah will be the pick. Meanwhile, Kyle Meinke and Jeff Risdon are a little more optimistic that Chase Young will be there at three.

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