Welcome back, degenerates.
Week 9 was an unmitigated disaster by just about every measure. The AFC East leading Buffalo Bills lost to the Jacksonville Jaguars, 9-6. The AFC West leading Las Vegas Raiders lost to the New York Football Giants. The leaders of the NFC East, the Dallas Cowboys, got molly-whopped by the Denver Broncos at home. And that’s just the tip of the iceberg; everywhere you looked, upsets littered the Week 9 scoreboard.
And then Thursday Night Football looked like a prime opportunity to restore order to the football universe. Instead we got meme’d to death about a right guard scoring a touchdown that was called back for illegal touching because Robert Hunt is the team’s right guard and that’s not allowed. But what also wasn’t allowed was the Baltimore Ravens offense because the insanity of Week 9 has officially spilled into Week 10’s bucket. Looking to Week 10’s slate of games, I’m very much this scared driver.
So let’s hone in on the one game I do feel confident in making a wager on: the Detroit Lions matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers. And there’s one aspect of this game I feel quite confident in predicting: each team’s respective running back is going to get a lot, and I mean a lot, of work in this one.
Over on DraftKings Sportsbook, they have a “weekly special” parlay prop for Lions running back D’Andre Swift and Steelers running back Najee Harris to record over 174.5 yards rushing and receiving at -110. So, in other words, for every $10 you bet on this prop, you win $9. And I think it’s a prime bet to take to your bet slip.
In Swift’s eight games this season, he’s averaging 88 yards from scrimmage. For Harris—who would probably be the Offensive Rookie of the Year at this point if it wasn’t for Ja’Marr Chase—has 830 yards from scrimmage in his first eight games. Beyond the raw numbers, there are a couple of reasons why this bet feels worth wagering on.
After watching how vulnerable the Lions were on the ground in their Week 8 matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles, there aren’t any signs that point to Detroit’s run defense getting fixed in a single bye week. Harris should have a field day against this Lions defense, and with wideout Chase Claypool ruled out in this one, that’s one less weapon to take targets and carries from Harris.
Working in Swift’s favor is the injury misfortune of Jamaal Williams—who has been ruled out for this game. We’ve all seen how heavily
this offense Jared Goff relies on using his running back as a receiver, so expect Swift to shoulder that load. Oh, and there’s also a greater than 50 percent chance of left tackle Taylor Decker playing in his first game this season, and that would be a huge boost to the manpower in Detroit’s offensive line.
So I’m comfortably locking in Swift and Harris OVER 174.5 rushing and receiving yards in this Week 10 matchup between the Lions and Steelers.
Odds/lines subject to change. T&Cs apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for details.