The Falcons have not been a very good team all year, but they’ve pulled out a bunch of narrow victories. All six of their wins have come by a single score, including three game-winning field goals as time expired.
But the Falcons’ losses have been big losses. They’ve had a 26-point loss to the Eagles, a 40-point loss to the Cowboys, a 25-point loss to the Patriots, and most recently, an 18 point- loss to the San Francisco 49ers. Put it all together and Atlanta actually has a worse point differential (-126) than the Lions (-123) despite having four more wins than them.
Of course, that line has very likely been impacted by the latest news that Jared Goff has been placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list, as the virus continues to work its way through the Lions locker room. Given the new COVID protocols, Goff could very well return to the lineup in time to play on Sunday, but for now, it’s likely this Vegas line reflects the possibility that Tim Boyle could start his second game this season.
If this Vegas line seems unfair to the Lions, you’re probably right, simply because Detroit has been fantastic against the spread all season. Including last week’s decimation of the 13.5-point line, the Lions are now 9-5 against the spread. Can they make it a 10-win season this week?