FanPost

What to do with 2022 Cap Space

Here's the situation: the Lions are locked into the Goff experience for at least part of another season, but we'll have a top draft pick (most likely 1st or 2nd) plus a few extra picks due to the trade and however the comp pick formula works out, and lastly -- the NFL salary cap is projected to go up to $208M.

I'm not a fan of saying stuff like "the Lions should take X position with this pick," because you don't know how the draft will play out. I would say that they should address WR and/or S earlier rather than later, and I expect them to go EDGE with their first pick, but I wouldn't necessarily call it a bad draft if they didn't. The NFL draft really is a wild card, so I'm going to put it aside for the moment and talk about free agency.

The Lions will have $161.8M already accounted for if they make no cap-saving cuts, leaving $47M to spend. We should do a couple of cap-saving cuts, though. We could clear around $10.4M by cutting Trey Flowers, $4.2M by cutting Vaitai, and $642k by cutting Harris. I'd cut Flowers and maybe Harris, but I'd keep Vaitai unless we end up taking a RG in the draft. He's been actually pretty decent this year, allowing 0 sacks and getting some push in the running game. I'd be all for cutting Vaitai in 2023, but I don't see it making sense this year. With Harris, his cap number is so low that I see him more likely being a camp cut rather than a pre-June 1st cut. Nobody else makes sense to me to cut outright, so with Flowers gone and needing around $10M to sign our draft picks and for injury replacements, etc., that leaves $47.4M to spend in free agency.

As far as the Lions needs go, some of them will be addressed in the draft, but it's impossible to know how many that would be. Additionally, I think it's very important to have a veteran presence (which we wouldn't have) at a few positions, like LB, WR and S. So here are our needs:

  • WR - St. Brown, Cephus, and Benson under contract for 2022. There's no real long-speed there & not much experience. We probably address this early in the draft, but we still should target a 1 or 2 in FA
  • Safety - only Will Harris will remain, and he's a candidate to get cut. Even if we draft a guy, we need to spend here
  • LB - ONLY BARNES!!! This is a big need, especially with Barnes' inexperience. We could get away with using only draft picks everywhere else but here
  • QB - we're locked in with Goff for at least one more year, but we have no backups and Goff stinks. Either the draft or FA could be the answer
  • EDGE - assuming we're cutting Flowers, only Okwara the Elder has shown he's worth a starting spot, leaving 1 up for grabs. PROBABLY handling this in the draft, but you never know
  • Depth: S/OT/IOL/LB/CB/DT/TE/FB - We'll need at least 2 more safeties on top of our starters, 2 backup OTs, 1-2 backup interior OL, a couple more LBs, someone to challenge/replace our nickel situation, a rotational DT, a blocking TE, and since we use a FB...we'll need one.
Who's available? I'll present a high-priced option or two, a modest alternative, and a budget option for each position (taken from Spotrac's list and using their market value estimates as a baseline):
  • At WR, if we want a #1 guy in FA, it's either Allen Robinson or Mike Williams (not to be confused with that Mike Williams). Chris Godwin, Davante Adams, and Michael Gallup are bigger names, but they're NOT coming here. That said, either Robinson or Williams would likely cost around $16M to sign. A more modest option would be JuJu Smith-Schuster, who's more of a WR2 and would probably come in for $10M - $12M. DJ Chark is another guy like that to be aware of, although coming off an ankle injury is a risk. As a budget option, we could go with Marquez Valdez-Scantling as an outside guy, or Deonte Harris as a slot/KR and move ARSB outside on some reps.
  • Marcus Williams would be my top target at S, and at around $14M he'd be on the expensive side. There's no projection for Tracy Walker but he's been playing reasonably well, so I'd expect him to command at least $10M/yr. I think Spotrac is overly high on Anthony Harris's value, given his age and declining play, so I'd put him more in Walker's range. Damontae Kazee would be a solid budget option.
  • The options at LB are...not great. Nicholas Morrow is the only guy I'd take a shot at for $10M. Anthony Barr is a familiar name, but probably not worth more than middlin' money at this point in his career. Then you're looking at guys like Jayon Brown or Christian Kirksey... it gets ugly quick, to the point where you might as well re-up with Anzalone if we miss out on those guys.
  • Let's face it - we're probably not spending at QB this off-season. But if we were, guys like Tyrod Taylor, Jameis Winston, and Teddy Bridgewater are who we should be looking at to challenge Goff. I'd honestly take any of those guys over Goff right now anyway, so if we wanted (BIG IF), we could sign one of those guys for strong backup money and still be able to afford it.
    --
    I'm not saying we should do this, but there's a case to be made for signing Tyrod to a 2-yr deal and making Goff a post-June 1st cut if we don't draft a QB in the first 2 rounds.
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  • We're almost definitely taking an EDGE player with our first pick. Unless something crazy happens, we're taking either Thibodeau or Hutchinson. But crazy things happen, so... my guy would be Haason Reddick. He's got the mix of pass rush and coverage skills Glenn wants from his OLBs in this defense, and he's got the production to back it up, unlike guys like Fowler and Clowney who always make these lists. Reddick is having his 2nd straight double-digit sack season though, so he might be too expensive. If that's the case, I'd be fine with either of those guys on a 1-yr deal, or someone like Emmanuel Ogbah. But we shouldn't have to worry about it, because we're probably drafting an EDGE #1.
With $47.4M to spend, we could potentially pick up Chark for around $12M and make Kent Lee Platte happy, Morrow at $10M and Marcus Williams at $14M, still leaving over $10M to spend on roughly 15 remaining roster spots, up to 8 of which could be filled by draft picks. $10M is plenty for 7-10 roster-filler spots.

That would be my ideal scenario - go stars & scrubs. Address your biggest 3 needs in FA, take some shots in the draft, and we could have a watchable team while also prepping for 2023, when Goff & guys like Brockers and Vaitai can come off the books, and Flowers represents so much less dead $. All told, that's $46M we could clear right there. 2023 is going to be a year to watch, and we can start setting ourselves up for that in 2022.

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Pride Of Detroit or its writers.