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Wednesday open thread: Who’s your pick for 2021 NFL MVP?

Matthew Stafford is a lucrative bet.

Syndication: DetroitFreePress Kirthmon F. Dozier, Detroit Free Press

Yesterday’s notes highlighted Jared Goff’s 80/1 odds for 2021 NFL MVP. It’s a long shot that won’t happen with the Detroit Lions in rebuild mode, but there are plenty of better odds to choose from—most notably, a familiar face in Los Angeles.

Question of the day: Who’s your pick for 2021 NFL MVP

My answer: I’d take the odds on Stafford.

Let’s look at those with better odds than Stafford:

  • Patrick Mahomes: won the award two years ago and has set the bar very high. Players typically need to exceed expectations to be in serious contention.
  • Aaron Rodgers: won the award last year, and barring a miracle, players don’t repeat with this award. I’d count him out.
  • Lamar Jackson: A viable threat to the award, but the Ravens have failed (as of writing this before the draft) to seriously upgrade their receiving corps. Until they do so, I don’t see Lamar reaching the level of play necessary to throw his hat in the ring.
  • Josh Allen: probably the most legitimate name besides Stafford. If he continues to thrive in Brian Daboll’s offense then he’ll make a strong case. The only thing potentially holding him back is Buffalo’s small market, which pales in comparison to Los Angeles.

When you look at it that way, the award is Stafford’s to lose. It’ll really depend on how quickly Stafford can adapt to Sean McVay’s playbook, as he’ll need to have a strong start to the season—once your hat is out of the ring, it’s very hard to get it back in. If the Rams can start the season off with a few wins, even if Stafford plays average, he’ll have the attention necessary to make a serious case for MVP.

Who’s your pick for MVP? Let us know in the comments and on social media.