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NFL Week 17’s Best Bet: Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions

It’s going to be wet—very wet.

NFL: OCT 28 Seahawks at Lions Photo by Scott W. Grau/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The Detroit Lions head way west this afternoon to play the Seattle Seahawks in this matchup of teams who, outside of draft position, don’t have much of note to play for—and the Seahawks don’t even have their own first-round draft pick in 2022.

But Washington holds a special place in my heart for a variety of reasons: it was the first trip I took to the west coast, the first time I saw a volcano up close and personal—shoutout that beaut Rainier—and it’s the home of one Dr. Frasier Crane.

After last week’s bet ended up leaving scrambled egg all over my face when Russell Gage failed to total 50 receiving yards, I’m left asking myself, “What is a boy to do?”

Well, it is Seattle after all, so the responsible thing to do is start with the weather report, and hoo boy, it’s going to be a wet one at the Clink for this game. Rain, and a lot of it, is forecasted all day in Seattle. Add to that, it looks like there could be wind gusts up to 20 MPH, so this all seems like a recipe for some good ol’ rough and tough football on the ground, right?

Absolutely. We saw how weather dictated the Lions’ game plan when they faced inclement weather against the Pittsburgh Steelers earlier this season. D’Andre Swift carried the ball 33 times for a season-high 130 yards and the Lions only attempted 25 passes in a football game that went to overtime.

Given the conditions for today’s game, things seem to favor the home team. Seattle’s run defense has been mostly good this season. The Seahawks rank ninth in rush defense DVOA, and since their bye in Week 9, Seattle has held four of their seven opponents under 96 total rushing yards. When they have the ball, the Seahawks rank seventh in rush DVOA and are averaging 4.7 yards per attempt on the ground—that’s good for fifth in the NFL.

So let’s piece this same-game parlay together, shall we? First, we’re going to count on this one being a low-scoring affair given the weather conditions and the fact we have two football teams who just don’t score a ton of points in general—Seattle and Detroit are 20th and 29th respectively in points scored—so we’re grabbing UNDER 50.5 total points for the first leg.

A big development for the Lions this week was the return of D’Andre Swift to the lineup after suffering a shoulder injury against the Chicago Bears on Thanksgiving. Instead of shutting him down for the season, the team is bringing Swift back to get some more work this season and that’s exactly where Swift thinks he belongs. For the second leg of this parlay, we’re taking D’Andre Swift OVER 39.5 rushing yards. The Lions have a group of running backs to use today, but Swift’s return puts him in a lead role, and I think he’ll get plenty of work today, so let’s also throw Swift OVER 9.5 receiving yards in there. Those three legs alone put this parlay at +155 odds which, maybe I seem a bit confused, yeah maybe, but I got this parlay pegged! Let’s add a couple more to the mix to make this a healthy payout.

Seeing as how this game may be short on scoring, I think it’s safe to throw these two picks into the hopper: Seahawks OVER 0.5 touchdowns and Lions UNDER 3.5 touchdowns. These two legs push our parlay to +175 odds, or in other words, a $10 wager results in a $27.50 return if all the props hit.

Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions Same-Game Parlay - Week 17

UNDER 50.5 total points
D’Andre Swift OVER 39.5 rushing yards
D’Andre Swift OVER 9.5 receiving yards
Seattle Seahawks OVER 0.5 touchdowns
Detroit Lions UNDER 3.5 touchdowns

5-pick parlay: +175 odds

As always, you can find these odds at the official sportsbook of SB Nation: DraftKings SportsBook. And, like I say every week, bet responsibly or else it just isn’t any fun.