The Detroit Lions (1-6) are coming off another one-score loss, this time to the Miami Dolphins. They’re at home again in Week 9 and will be hosting division rival, Green Bay Packers (3-5). The good folks over at DraftKings Sportsbook have already set the opening line for this game and are favoring the Packers by 3.5 points.
The Packers are on a four-game losing streak, after dropping games to the New York Giants (27-22), New York Jets (27-10), Washington Commanders (23-21), and most recently the Buffalo Bills (27-17) who smacked them around on Sunday night. Green Bay’s offense is in a bit of a rut and hasn’t been quite as explosive lately. They sit right around the middle of the NFL in DVOA, landing 14th in both passing and rushing offense ahead of the Bills game. Their defense, which was projected to be one of the best in the NFL, lands at 11th in DVOA against the pass, but they’re 31st against the run—yes, worse than the Lions, who rank 29th.
As disappointing as the Packers have been, the Lions still haven’t figured out how to close out games, so it’s not overly surprising that DraftKings is leaning toward Green Bay. History likely also plays a factor here. While the Lions won their most recent head-to-head (37-30 in Week 18 in 2021), the Packers have won the five games prior to that.
The Lions offense came back to life last week against the Dolphins—in the first half at least. As their skill players, like D’Andre Swift, return to health, they’ll have a chance to regain some of the explosion we saw early in the season. This game has the potential to be closer than people expected when the schedule came out.