So I took last week off, big deal. Get over it; get your greedy little hands ready to trail these plays for Week 10’s matchup between the Detroit Lions and the Chicago Bears. After all, I absolutely nailed down those two parlays a couple weeks ago for Lions-Dolphins.
And by nail, I’m talking about how one of them hit by halftime and the other was a single passing yard from Tua away from hitting at the half.
so the first one hit before halftime, and the second one is a single passing yard from Tua away from hitting. pic.twitter.com/nPP6vq0bH0— Ryan Mathews (@Ryan_POD) October 30, 2022
Admittedly, predicting that game to not be short on offense was a bit of a no-brainer—anyone could have forecasted points and yards for those two teams, especially with the way their defenses had been playing up to that point.
Look at me talk about the Lions defense like it’s turned a corner for good and is as stout as the group that picked off Aaron Rodgers three times and held the Green Bay Packers to just 9 points scored last week.
Now who could have predicted that?
As always, the past is the past, and you’re only as good as the last ticket you’ve locked in, so let’s get to work, dude.
Let’s take a look at the best bets you have available to you from DraftKings, the official sportsbook sponsor of SB Nation.
What is Week 10’s best bet for Lions-Bears?
So if this game had a script, many assume it would be two teams tearing down each other’s defense four, five, six yards at a time on the ground. It’s hard to argue that reality not coming to fruition on Sunday, especially after having our sit-down with Windy City Gridiron’s Jeff Berckes and getting the lowdown on just how sieve-like Chicago’s run defense has been this season—and here’s what the big fella found during his research for On Paper this week:
They rank 26th in yards per carry allowed (4.9), 25th in rush EPA allowed, and here may be the most important stat for this matchup: the Chicago Bears run defense ranks 29th in short-yardage situations, allowing an 80 percent conversion rate. That’s been a weak point for the Lions offense, so this could be a week in which you don’t have to be terrified of third and fourth-and-1s.
The Bears against the run: it’s as bad as what the Lions do!
Personally, this feels like a week to stay away from scoring props. I know people might look at the matchup and see two really bad defenses playing against two offenses more than capable of scoring points, but just because they’re capable doesn’t mean it’ll happen—look no further than last week as the Packers moved the ball up and down the field against the Lions but just turned the ball over instead of cashing in on Detroit’s doorstep.
Here’s the same-game parlay I’ve got put together over on DraftKings:
- Jamaal Williams OVER 59.5 rushing yards
- Justin Fields OVER 44.5 rushing yards
- Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER 59.5 receiving yards
Total odds: +265
For Williams. he’s crossed that total in four of the first eight games this season—and four out of six in games where Swift was either limited or injured. Regardless of what Swift’s workload is like on Sunday against the Bears, I think Williams is good for at least 60 yards on the ground.
As for Fields, he’s going to continue a time-honored tradition of the Lions’ refusal to remain disciplined up front. It doesn’t matter who it is dropping back to throw, the quarterback is going to find a rushing lane if they don’t find an open receiver. Last week, a 38-year-old Aaron Rodgers was Green Bay’s leading rusher on just four carries where he gained 40 yards. It just doesn’t matter.
And there isn’t much to say about this for St. Brown. It’s simple, really: it’s a bounce back game for Detroit’s top receiving threat. The Bears pass rush is non-existent, and if there’s a soft spot in Chicago’s secondary, it’s rookie nickel cornerback Kyler Gordon. Do your worst, Ben Johnson.