Saturday open thread: Week 11’s best bet for Lions-Giants

It takes a lot of courage to get up here and revisit what happened last week in the matchup between the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears.

The same-game parlay I had cooked up for y’all missed by a half-yard. No, yeah, Jamaal Williams’ 59 rushing yards left him a half-yard short of hitting that parlay with +265 odds. It hurts, but it isn’t anything more than a flesh wound. We’re getting up, dusting ourselves off, and getting back in the kitchen.

We’re not being shy this week. And this isn’t a matter of us being reckless after a bad beat, it’s us taking back what’s ours—just in a big way. The Lions travel to New York Jersey for a matchup with the 7-2 New York Giants in search of their first three-game winning streak since 2017, and I think I have an idea of how things are going down this Sunday.

Let’s take a look at the best bets you have available to you from DraftKings, the official sportsbook sponsor of SB Nation.

What is Week 11’s best bet for Lions-Giants?

First of all, Amon-Ra St. Brown is one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. If he’s not in the top ten, I’d like to see your list—it’s probably a dumb list though since St. Brown isn’t on it.

St. Brown looked like his usual self last week against the Bears, catching 10 passes for 119 yards for the Lions in their victory. It was St. Brown’s season-high in receptions and yards, and considering the favorable matchup he has this week against Giants nickel cornerback Darnay Holmes, he might be in line for another big day.

Holmes hasn’t faced as tough a matchup as St. Brown so far this season, but if there’s a weak link in this Giants' secondary, it’s him. So we’re going to grab St. Brown OVER 74.5 receiving yards (-145) to kick things off.

Next, I think the Lions are scoring at least a couple of touchdowns in this game. Their offense is getting healthier, hopefully, they get DJ Chark back, and while the Giants surrender just a shade over 19 points per game—good for ninth in the NFL—the teams they’ve held under 20 points include the Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Houston Texans. So let’s grab OVER 1.5 touchdowns (-295) to spruce this up a little bit.

Lastly, we’re going to back Jared Goff and his passing total for the afternoon by taking OVER 219.5 passing yards (-125). Goff has hit that mark in seven of nine games this season, and while the Giants have held six of nine quarterbacks under that total, but just gave up 286 passing yards to Davis Mills and the Texans.

So in summary, here’s the same-game parlay I’ve got put together over on DraftKings:

• Amon-Ra St. Brown OVER 74.5 receiving yards
• Detroit Lions OVER 1.5 touchdowns
• Jared Goff OVER 219.5 passing yards

Total odds: +195

Trail me.