According to ESPN, the Detroit Lions could be holding the second overall pick next April. Per their projection model, the Los Angeles Rams (currently 3-9) are projected to finish with the second-worst record in the NFL, only behind the Houston Texans (1-10-1). Of course, the Lions own the Rams’ first round as part of the blockbuster trade that sent Matthew Stafford to the Rams and Jared Goff to Detroit.
Here’s how ESPN’s model works:
Every week during the season, the FPI projects the draft order by simulating the remainder of the season 10,000 times. Game probabilities are based largely on the model’s ratings for individual teams in addition to game locations.
Currently, the Rams’ pick is fourth in draft order, as they sit behind the Texans, Chicago Bears (3-9), and Denver Broncos* (3-9). However, the Rams are dealing with a ton of injuries, including likely season-enders for quarterback Matthew Stafford, Allen Robinson, and Cooper Kupp. In fact, backup quarterback John Wolford is dealing with a neck injury of his own, so the Rams are reportedly considering starting Baker Mayfield at quarterback on Thursday—a player they acquired on Tuesday.
Other interesting information from ESPN’s projections: the Rams’ pick only has a four percent chance of earning the No. 1 pick, but an 86.4 percent chance of staying in the top five. The Lions’ original pick, which currently stands at 15, is projected to finish 13th, with still a 21 percent chance of landing in the top 10.
The Broncos’ pick is owned by the Seattle Seahawks after the Russell Wilson trade.