Josh Reynolds, OVER 35.5 receiving yards (-110)
I’ve been pushing Josh Reynolds and the over on receiving yards for a month now and it’s hit each of the last four weeks. In fact, outside of the Week 3 goose egg, Reynolds has eclipsed this mark every week. Regardless of whether Amon-Ra St. Brown (questionable, illness) plays in this game, smash the over here.
“(Reynolds) is playing lights out and I’d be remiss not bringing him up,” offensive coordinator Ben Johnson said last Friday. “It’s like every time we throw him the ball, it’s a big play almost.”
Jahmyr Gibbs, OVER 102.5 rushing and receiving yards (-115)
The Raiders' run defense is vulnerable, especially to outside zone runs, which is where Lions running back Jahmyr Gibbs excels. The Raiders have given up 100 rushing yards five times this year—over 150 rushing yards three times—and are giving up 129 rushing yards on average per game (24th), including 4.4 yards per carry (22nd in the NFL) with a run defense ranked 28th in DVOA.
The Lions do have some questions on their interior offensive line due to injuries, which could slow down their rushing attack, but that’s why I am recommending a “rushing and receiving” combination here.
Even if the Lions run game is stunted, Gibbs showed last week in Baltimore (11 rushes for 68 yards, and nine receptions for 58 yards) that he is going to be heavily involved in the offense in a variety of ways, and could even be the feature player. His skill set—and a David Montgomery injury—make him not only the Lions’ primary rushing option but also a pre-planned weapon in the passing game, as well as a check-down option.
Sam LaPorta, OVER 44.5 receiving yards (-115)
In LaPorta’s seven games played, he has eclipsed this number five times, including registering six receptions for 52 yards last week against Baltimore’s stingy defense—who are one of the best at defending tight ends this season.
The Raiders, on average, give up just 41.4 yards to tight ends each week, but they also haven’t faced a top-10 tight end yet this season.