Let’s take a look at some of our favorites.
David Montgomery, Anytime touchdown (-150)
Let’s not overcomplicate this. Montgomery has scored a touchdown in every game he has played as a member of the Lions—save in Tampa Bay when he was injured on his sixth touch—and has a total of seven scores on the season.
Add in the fact that Montgomery spent the previous four seasons in Chicago, and coach Dan Campbell is surely going to let Montgomery show the Bears why they should have never let him go.
Jahmyr Gibbs, OVER 72.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115)
The Bears’ run defense is the best part of their game, checking in as the sixth-best run defense in DVOA. While the Lions won’t hesitate to run the ball—their rushing offense is fifth-best in DVOA—they may also opt for the path of least resistance and throw the ball.
Because the Lions running backs are capable of contributing on the ground and through the air, I am opting to pick the combo bet (rushing and receiving yards) to cover my bases.
I was tempted to double down on Montgomery here—OVER 62.5 rushing + receiving yards (-115)—because I believe he will have something to prove and is coming off three straight 100+ yards rushing games (save his injury game in Tampa Bay). But the fact of the matter is 90% of his production has come on the ground this season.
I like Gibbs a tick more here because he has a more balanced 70/30% split of production (also favoring the run), and is averaging 142.33 all-purpose yards per game over the last three weeks—including 112 all-purpose yards last week while rotating snaps with Montgomery.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, OVER 6.5 receptions (-140)
Over the last four games, St. Brown’s stat lines have been tremendous:
- at Buccaneers: 15 targets, 12 receptions, 124 receiving yards
- at Ravens: 19 targets, 13 receptions, 102 receiving yards
- vs Raiders: 9 targets, 6 receptions, 108 receiving yards
- at Chargers: 9 targets, 8 receptions, 156 receiving yards
On average, he is targeted nearly 11 times a game and catches 8.1 of those targets. Simply put, he is a target volume player. St. Brown’s receiving yard production has been stellar and no one in the NFL has more 100+ receiving yard games—which is why OVER 84.5 receiving yards (-115) is so tempting—but he is such a big part of the Lions' weekly game plan, it’s easy to project that the targets will be there and the odds are he will turn them into catches.