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2023 NFL playoff odds by every possible Detroit Lions outcome

A look at the Detroit Lions’ playoff and NFC North winner odds based on every possible outcome of their four remaining games.

Buffalo Bills v Detroit Lions Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images

The Detroit Lions may only be 4-3 in their last seven games, but their 5-1 start to the season has put them in a tremendous spot with only four games remaining in the regular season. At 9-4, the Lions currently hold the NFC’s third overall seed, and they have a two-game lead in the division over the Minnesota Vikings (three over the Green Bay Packers).

We’ve already highlighted just how good the Lions’ odds are to both make the playoffs and win the division. But with some warranted anxiety about how Detroit is currently playing, some remain worried that a late-season skid could cause the Lions to lose their grasp on the NFC North or get bounced in the playoffs early.

Twitter user LionsRoyalty may have just helped with some of that anxiety. Using the New York Times Playoff Simulator, LionsRoyalty plugged in every possible iteration of Lions outcomes for the final four games—that’s 16 different combinations of wins and losses (ties were not investigated).

From there, LionsRoyalty charted the NYT Simulator's odds for the Lions to then make the playoffs and win the division. The results are pretty eye-opening:

The first thing that jumps out to me is that even if the Lions were to lose out, they would still have a 62 percent chance to make the playoffs. If they win a single game—any game at all—their playoff odds are at 99 percent.

If they go 2-2 in the final four games, the only way they don’t win the division is if both of those losses come against the Vikings. Even so, Detroit would still have an 83% chance to win the division—as Minnesota would have to win their two other games (@Bengals, vs. Packers) to surpass the Lions for the division.

And of those 16 possible outcomes, 10 of them result in the Lions clinching the division without the need for any help. Given the Packers’ and Vikings’ current struggles, it’s entirely possible they get some help to make Detroit’s path to the NFC North crown even easier.

In other words, Detroit remains in a very, very good standing in the NFC playoff race. Now it’s just time to start playing better football.

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