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Best player prop bets for Detroit Lions vs. Denver Broncos in Week 15

We identify our favorite player prop bets to consider for the Detroit Lions Week 15 matchup with the Denver Broncos.

Carolina Panthers vs Detroit Lions Photo by Jorge Lemus/NurPhoto via Getty Images

The Detroit Lions are back home in Week 15, taking on the Denver Broncos in a Saturday night showcase. In what figures to be an exciting game, the folks over at DraftKings Sportsbook have provided us with some interesting play props and odds for the game.

Let’s take a look at some of our favorites.

Sam LaPorta, OVER 4.5 receptions (-140)
Sam LaPorta, OVER 47.5 receiving yards (-140)

LaPorta is coming off arguably his most disappointing performance in the NFL, but I am smashing the over on LaPorta in this matchup. Some of this thinking is because I am expecting a bounce-back game, but it also has to do with the Lions' opponent, the Denver Broncos.

As I noted in my Lions “Keys to Victory” article, the Broncos are struggling to defend tight ends, which creates a unique opportunity:

  • Receptions per game: 6.15 (30th)
  • Yards per reception: 11.3 (28th)
  • Yards per game: 69.4 (30th)
  • Touchdowns: 6 (t-25th)
  • DVOA vs. TE: 30th

Detroit will need LaPorta to show out if they’re going to secure a win on Saturday night, so take the over on reception and receiving yards in this game.

David Montgomery, OVER 65.5 rushing yards (-130)
Jahmyr Gibbs, OVER 53.5 rushing yards (-120)

The other weakness I pointed out in my game preview piece is that the Broncos shed yards on the ground to good (and some bad) rushing teams. Denver has the 31st run defense per DVOA, and ranks 32nd in yards per carry (5.1) and yards allowed per game (144).

Currently, the Lions are fourth in DVOA for rushing offense, averaging 4.7 yards per carry, and 137.5 yards per game, both fifth-best in the NFL. In the Lions' most recent five games—when both Montgomery and Gibbs have been healthy and platooning duties—they’ve each eclipsed their projected bet line totals in four of those matchups.

Here’s a look at Montgomery’s and Gibbs’ rushing yards over their last five games:

  • at Bears, Montgomery: 66; Gibbs: 66
  • at Saints: Montgomery: 56; Gibbs: 60
  • vs. Packers: Montgomery: 71; Gibbs: 54
  • vs. Bears: Montgomery: 76; Gibbs: 36
  • at Chargers: Montgomery: 116; Gibbs: 77

I like both players to hit the over here because of how they're utilized and the opponent in front of them. But if those numbers are too tight for your comfort, I’d recommend searching out DraftKings Sportsbook’s “alternative rushing yards” options, where you can adjust the yards each back needs to achieve.

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