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NFL playoff odds: Detroit Lions’ NFC North odds extremely high

Despite some shaky play, the Detroit Lions’ odds to win the NFC North are still extremely high with five weeks to go.

Detroit Lions v New Orleans Saints Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images

The Detroit Lions tallied another win this week, and even if it came by the skin of their teeth, it counts all the same. The Lions are 9-3, and some may need a reminder that that is tied for the second best record in football.

Unsurprisingly, that means very good things in terms of their playoff odds. They may “only” hold the NFC’s third overall seed right now, but they’ve got a pretty healthy lead on the division, and just as healthy of a lead in the Wild Card race, in case things go askew in the final five weeks of the season.

Before we get into the Lions’ exact playoff odds, a reminder of where things currently stand.

NFC Playoff Picture

  1. Eagles: 10-2
  2. 49ers: 9-3
  3. Lions: 9-3
  4. Falcons: 6-6

Wild Card race (top three advance)

  1. Cowboys: 9-3
  2. Vikings: 6-6
  3. Packers: 6-6
  4. Rams: 6-6
  5. Seahawks: 6-6
  6. Buccaneers: 5-7
  7. Saints: 5-7

Now let’s get into the probabilities.

To take a look at each source of playoff probabilities, click the following links:

NOTE: The +/- is based on the numbers from last week.

Playoff odds

DVOA: 99.3% (+1.6%%)
NYT: >99% (added greater than symbol)
PlayoffStatus.com: 99% (+1%)

Detroit’s odds to make the postseason are now essentially even higher than just 99 percent. In other words, get ready for the Lions to play some January football and make the postseason for the first time since 2017.

Whatever happens in these final five games won’t matter as much as how the Lions play in the postseason, so hopefully the Lions figure out some of their issues and get a little healthier by then.

NFC North odds:

DVOA: 91.4% (+3.5%)
NYT: 95% (+1%)
PlayoffStatus.com: 92% (+4%)

With the Lions’ win and the Vikings on bye, Detroit inched their way into a three-game lead in the NFC North. And even though the Packers worked their way to 6-6 as well—also three games behind Detroit—the Lions’ odds to win the NFC North jumped in all three probability models.

By the statistics, the Vikings still remain the biggest threat to the Lions’ divisional crown, despite the fact that Green Bay has one of the easiest schedules remaining. But it’s pretty close between the two. Here’s each team’s odds to win the division:

DVOA:

  • Packers: 4.0%
  • Vikings: 4.6%

NYT:

  • Packers: 3%
  • Vikings: 3%

PlayoffStatus.com:

  • Packers: 3%
  • Vikings: 4%

NFC No. 1 seed odds:

DVOA: 5.5% (+2.5%)
NYT: 7% (+3%)
PlayoffStatus.com: 8% (+5%)

Thanks to the Eagles’ loss to the 49ers, the Lions’ odds at a first-round bye are slightly up. They’re still pretty unlikely to grab the No. 1 seed, but had the Eagles beaten the 49ers, Detroit would have virtually had zero chance. Now it’s time to root against Eagles and 49ers. Here’s a look at their remaining schedules:

Eagles:

  • @ Cowboys
  • @ Seahawks
  • vs. Giants
  • vs. Cardinals
  • @ Giants

49ers:

  • vs. Seahawks
  • @ Cardinals
  • vs. Ravens
  • @ Commanders
  • vs. Rams

Don’t forget about the Cowboys, too. If the Eagles start losing and Dallas jumps them for the NFC East crown, they become a threat for the No. 1 seed.

Super Bowl champion odds:

DVOA: 4.2% (+0.1%)
NYT: 6% (no change)
PlayoffStatus.com: 8% (+2%)

Yeah, sure. Why not?

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After winning their first NFC North title in 30 years, the Lions have unfinished business this offseason. Stay updated with Jeremy Reisman through Pride of Detroit Direct, our newsletter offering up exclusive analysis. Sign up with NFCNORTH30 to get 30% off after your free trial.