The 2023 Super Bowl is upon us and that means the betting world is hard at work looking for an interesting betting experience that goes beyond the typical moneyline and spread options—and that means prop bets.
As we have done all season, we will be using odds from the folks over at DraftKings Sportsbook, via Tallysight, to help us with our picks and predictions. Tallysight identified over 500 player prop bets from the DraftKings catalog, all focused on player and team performance. We’ve sorted through those options and picked a handful of predictions we believe could realistically happen in the big game, along with one long shot just for fun.
Jalen Hurts scores a touchdown
There were six players eligible in this category, Hurts, A.J. Brown, Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco, Miles Sanders, and DeVonta Smith. I went with Hurts because of his 15 rushing touchdowns on the season, including one in each of the Eagles' two playoff games.
A.J Brown yards on 1st reception: Over 10.5
This one isn’t as clean as it looks because Brown has been relatively quiet in the postseason, averaging just 7.14 yards per reception. But during the season, Brown averaged 17.0 yards per reception, and I’m expecting the Eagles to try and hit him on a shot early in order to get him involved.
Kenneth Gainwell rushing yards: Over 19.5
Gainwell averaged just 14.1 yards per game during the season, but in the Eagles' two playoff games, he ran for 112 yards against the Giants and 48 yards against the 49ers. I expect him to break the 20 rushing yards mark in this game.
Patrick Mahomes passing attempts: Over 38.5
In the conference championship round, Mahomes was nursing an ankle injury and was clearly limited on the ground. The Chiefs adjusted their offense because of his injury and Mahomes passed 43 times. While the ankle is better, it’s still a problem, so I anticipate Mahomes to focus more on his arm than his legs.
QB to have highest passer rating: Patrick Mahomes
Hurts passer rating during the season was 101.5 while registering 112.2 and 72.2 marks in the playoffs. Mahomes earned a 105.2 during the season with marks of 112.5 and 105.4 in the playoffs. I’m siding with consistency here.
Isiah Pacheco rushing yards: Over 47.5
While Pacheco averaged 48.8 yards per game on the ground this season, most of his hard work was done in the back half of the season. In nine of the last 11 games, he ran for over 58 yards and averaged 68.5 rushing yards per game. The Chiefs will need him in this one.
Both teams record a defensive sack = Yes
Hurts has been sacked at least once in every game this season, including the playoffs, and while Mahomes has five games without being sacked in 2022-23, the Eagles’ defense registered 78 sacks this season, third most in NFL history.
Both teams score in 4th quarter = Yes
Last team to score wins = Yes
I’m grouping these two prop bets together because I am expecting a good game and that means these two teams should be battling it out well into the fourth quarter. Here’s to hoping this game goes down to the wire.
WR/TE Player Prop Parlay
Travis Kelce and A.J. Brown
200+ Combined Rec Yards and 2+ Combined TDs Scored
I saved my favorite player prop bet for last. By far the longest odds on this sheet, but strangely this parlay seems realistic (but I guess that’s the point, right?). Now, Brown averaged just 88.0 receiving yards per game in the regular season, Kelce only 78.7, and neither has broke 100 receiving yards in a game this post-season. But I like this projection for two main reasons.
First, big players step up in big games and these two skill players are the best pass catchers on their respective rosters. In Kelce’s last eight playoff games, he has cleared 98 receiving yards in seven of them, including 133 receiving yards the last time he was in the Super Bowl. Secondly, the stat combination element is too tempting. While I expect both players to show out on the big stage, if one slips up a bit, the other has the firepower to make up the difference.
Finally, the folks at Tallysight have added a new feature for the NFL Playoffs that allows you easier access to DraftKings. Below, you can see my entire “bet slip” for this week’s player prop bets. While my picks are meant for entertainment purposes, if you are interested in making a wager, each pick has a direct link to the DraftKings website: