I'm sure there are smarter people than me who have created their own positional value chart, but I think something like this can be useful in guessing what players Holmes might target in the first round. Thus far, Holmes has taken positional value seriously.
First, let's make some distinctions in player projections. I have 5 categories.
1. Transformational – projected top 5 in position within rookie contract
2. Elite – projected top 10 in position within rookie contract
3. Quality Starter – projected top 15…
4. Strong Starter – projected top 20
5. Starter – projected top 30
The positional value comes at what point Holmes would seriously consider drafting a player of a particular position in the 1st round.
P06: QB1-2, DE1-3, OT1-3, WR1-3, DL1-2, CB1-2, S 1, TE--, LB--, RB--, C/OG--
P18: QB1-3, DE1-4, OT1-4, WR1-4, DL1-3, CB1-3, S1-2, TE1-2, LB1-2, RB1, C/OG1-3
So, according to this chart at 6 Holmes would consider drafting an Elite-Transformational QB, a Quality-Starter to Transformational DE, and a Transformational DL, etc. On the other hand, due to the value of the position, he wouldn't seriously consider drafting a TE, LB (off ball), RB, or C/OG that high, even if he were projected to be tranformational.
The field opens up in round 18 though, with all of the positions open depending on the projected potential of the player.
I should emphasize that this is still "projected" potential. There are no guarantees. For example, Trent Richardson was a RB taken by the Browns at 3. He was projected to be transformational -- one of the best -- but he wasn’t. He turned out to be a bust. So a GM will always take a risk that the projections will pan out. You never know.
So, what do you think of this chart? Where am I wrong?