Now that the 1st wave of free agency is in the books - we have a much better understanding of the Lions roster heading into the draft. For each position group - I am putting the number of spots that the Lions started last year with on the roster in building the 53 man roster...

That will identify the likely spots that the Lions will look to improve via the draft. Then we can look at some different drafting strategies to address those needs as well as how the draft might play out - at least in the first 3 rounds... I apologize in advance for what may be a lengthy post - but hopefully it will be informative and helpful...

Quarterback (2) Goff.

This will be an obvious need. Last year they went with 2.

Running Backs (4) Swift, Montgomery, Reynolds, Bell, Cabinda.

While this isnt a need per se - Swift is on his last year of his contract and cant stay healthy - so I would imagine this would be an area of need heading into the draft.

Wide Receiver (5) Williams, St. Brown, Raymond, Reynolds, Cephus.

Cephus looks to be the most likely to be upgraded...

Tight Ends (3) Wright, Zylstra, Mitchell.

I dont really see a need here - other than adding some camp bodies. They will continue to develop what they have.

Offensive Line (9) Decker, Jackson, Ragnow, Vatai, Sewell, Glasgow, Nelson, Eze, Stenberg

Is there value in drafting a high value Tackle early in the draft to provide depth and an eventual replacement for Decker'? Right guard also seems to be a position potentially ripe for an upgrade/cheaper contract...

Inside Defensive Line (5) Onwuzurike, McNeil, Buggs, Jones, Taylor

I can see them upgrading 2 here - using a high draft pick and a later round pick for development.

Edge (5) Hutchinson, Paschal, Cominsky, Harris, R. Okwara

I really dont see this as an area of need unless they plan on getting rid of Okwara.

Linebacker (5) Anzalone, Barnes, Rodriguez, Houston, J. Okwara

Not a position of need unless they are looking to upgrade Okwara...

Cornerback (5) Sutton, Moseley, Okudah, Harris, Jacobs

Never enough corners...

Safeties (5) Walker, Joseph, Melifonwu

This is my biggest identified area of need...

When I look at who they currently have under contract - and using last years positional groupings as a guide - I am not seeing a lot of needs that would require Holmes to reach. This will free him up to focus on talent - which is how it should be. So lets turn our focus to the draft...

The Lions will have 5 picks in the 1st 3 rounds of the draft - #6, #18, #48, #55, #81...

I have been doing a lot of mock drafts using 2 different simulators - PFF and PFN (both free and easy to use)... there are a couple of things that have become glaringly obvious to me. Firstly - we all know that the Lions put a high value on certain intangibles such as a love of the game, character, etc...and I admit to not having done that level of research on the players available via the draft. Secondly - I dont know how highl (basedy they value certain players currently on the roster for their intangibles (Anzalone is an example where they value him higher than many of us do for his leadership, communication, etc...)

With that in mind - lets assemble a list of likely spots they are looking to upgrade/add in the draft...

QB - 1, RB - 1, WR - 1, OL - 2, IDL - 2, LB - 1, CB - 1, Safety - 2

In terms of priority (based on high value positions) I would prioritize as IDL, OL(if they take a Tackle), CB, Safety. You could add WR here if the intent is to add someone early in the draft depending on how the board falls.

Potential Trade Down from #6

Depending on how the first 5 picks go - there are going to be opportunities to trade down from the 6th pick if only 1 QB remains. This might be very enticing for the Lions because it would afford them the ability to pick up an additional 1st round pick next year. For example - Atlanta at #8 might want to move up to snag the last remaining QB and be willing to give their #8 this year and next years first (plus perhaps a bit more)...

Since the Lions definitely need to add a 2nd QB to the roster behind Goff - the big question would be would they take the last remaining QB available at #6 - or trade back - pick up an additional 1st round pick next year (so they have additional ammunition to move up to get a QB if they desire) and take a developmental QB later in the draft.

After having considered this in depth - I think its highly likely that they do in fact trade down from #6 - pick up another first for next year (which gives them a backup plan if Goff regresses). I can even model scenarios where the are able to trade down 2 times in the 1st - picking up 1sts for next year and additional 2nd round picks this year...

But - lets look at the talent available at #6 assuming they stand pat...

Skoronski, Gonzalez, Witherspoon, Carter, Wilson, Johnston, Levis. These are all high value positions and these are prospects at the top of their positions...

If they are convinced that Carter will pan out - and his recent actions arent a serious red flag - I think he will be the pick. If he isnt available - that would add a 2nd QB available (probably Richardson). I just dont see the Lions using this pick on a QB because it would shatter the locker room - destroy the positive momentum they have established with Goff. I am also removing Wilson from consideration because they simply dont have room to add another edge rusher - and frankly dont need him.

I think Gonzalez is the likely pick here and will add Skoronski as the backup plan because this would allow them to build OL depth for this year and allow them to trade Decker next year for additional draft capital down the road.

What to do at #18

If they draft a tackle at #6 - I think either CB or IDL will be priority at #18 - with Banks, Bresee and Kancey as the most likely options. Kancey is very intriguing because of the comparisions to Aaron Donald - but, I think Bresee is the safer pick here. But - if Banks is available - he has true potential to be a shutdown corner. Considering the depth in the CB position this year - I am going to go with Bresee here.

#48

Obviously as you get deeper into the draft - it becomes virtually impossible to predict with specificity how the board is going to play out so we can only make assumptions...

The players I like in this spot are Jack Campbell, Mazi Smith, Daiyan Henley, Steve Avila, Tyrique Stevenson.

Assuming that Jack Campbell is already off the board -I am going to opt for Henley.

#55

Tanner McKee is tempting here to back up Goff, Sam LaPorta is a pretty good TE prospect, Mattnew Bergeron is a quality safety prospect, and Siaki Ika as a 350 lb immovable side of beef that would eliminate the ability of opposing teams to run inside.

I am going to go with Ika here. I like the idea of him playing next to McNeil on running downs.

Results

In my scenario - we add Christian Gonzalez as our future #1 corner, Bryan Bresee to solidify our interior defensive line, Daiyan Henley to bolster our linebacking depth and Siaki Ika to ensure 1on1 matchups elsewhere on the Dline.

The rest of the draft from round 3 onwards I will trust in Brad to add good talent that will bolster the rest of the roster - adding additional depth and developmental pieces...

This is the deepest pre-draft roster I can remember the Lions having - with no glaring positions of need. When I couple this with the quality of the draft picks they will have - they will have many good options where they can truly focus on talent, talent, talent. I think it is likely that they will trade down from the #6 pick and add an additional 1st round pick for next year. This will give them the ammunition they will need if a decision is made to replace Goff.

I hope you have enjoyed this analysis provided in this post - it is the culmination of a good number of hours of effort