Monday open thread: Should the Detroit Lions draft Hendon Hooker?

In the months leading up to the 2023 NFL Draft, four names have sat atop the quarterback rankings without too much controversy. Will Levis, Anthony Richardson, C.J. Stroud, and Bryce Young will likely hear their names called early, as many teams are looking for their quarterback of the future. Yet with the draft only a few weeks away, another name is creeping up rankings and threatening the status quo: Hendon Hooker.

Draft risers and fallers are annual occurrences, but Hooker’s stock might be peaking at the perfect moment. There is no consensus top quarterback in this draft class, and while the odds of Hooker going first overall are next to none, there’s a decent chance a team falls in love with the prospect. The Detroit Lions themselves could be one such team, having reportedly scheduled a top-30 visit with the Tennessee quarterback.

There’s a lot of love about Hooker. Atop the list is probably his mobility, an aspect of quarterback play that is becoming more and more relevant. Whether via designed runs or simply a broken play, Hooker can do damage with his legs. Though Hooker isn’t on the level of Young when it comes to off-script playmaking, it should still be an asset for him at the professional level. Mix in his above-average arm and frame, solid accuracy and touch, and lack of turnovers, and there’s a receipt for a top quarterback prospect.

So why isn’t he?

There are a few knocks on Hooker that have kept him from joining the consensus top tier. The elephant in the room is his age, having turned 25 in January. NFL prospects over 25 are a rarity in general, but especially for first-round talents. Comparisons to Brandon Weeden will inevitably be drawn, although Weeden as a 29-year-old rookie back in 2012 was a far greater outlier. Still, it severely limits his developmental curve; Hooker will be nearly 30 years of age when his rookie deal expires. From a physical perspective, his prime is now, yet he isn’t ready to start.

College football offenses don’t always translate well to the NFL, and Tennessee was one such offense. Making progressions and proper reads are valuable skills for college quarterbacks, but the Tennessee offense relied heavily on quick-hitting vertical plays that are a rarity in the NFL. Per PFF, “Hooker had just 16 pass attempts beyond his first read on a play,” an absurdly low figure. In college football, this system can work due to talent mismatches, but the NFL is far from such an environment.

Compounding the age issue is a torn ACL in November. As mentioned, Hooker will need at least a season of development learning an NFL offense. Yet this ACL injury could result in a rookie season largely spent rehabbing. Hooker may be a smart quarterback, but there is no substitution for live reps. By the time Hooker hits an NFL field, he could be 26 years old. Given the abundance of young quarterback talent in the NFL, Hooker will be far behind his peers.

Are you enticed by Hooker’s potential? Does his age, injury, and college scheme scare you off? And when will Hooker hear his name called on draft day?

Today’s Question of the Day is:

Should the Detroit Lions draft Hendon Hooker?

My answer: I don’t think the Lions should draft Hooker on Day 1 or 2 of the draft, but I would consider him on Day 3.

His age and injury alone rule him out as a first rounder in my eyes—even if Detroit acquires a pick in the 30s, I believe there will be better value at other positions. I can’t agree with drafting a player that likely won’t see the field until his age 26 season in the first round. Even if Hooker were a pro-ready prospect, it would be difficult to justify. Jameson Williams missed most of his rookie season, but at just 22 years old, that’s a development timeline well within reason.

Looking later in the draft, drafting Hooker to backup Jared Goff is a decent idea, but it becomes complicated the further you look at it. Drafting a pure backup is too rich for the second and third rounds. Quarterbacks have a poor hit rate on Day 2—I frequently refer to this older thread by Kent Lee Platte about the hit rate of quarterbacks. It’s somewhat outdated, but the gist remains the same: finding a starting quarterback is hard.

If you’re drafting Hooker as a developmental guy, his age is a limiting factor. While quarterbacks can play well into their 30s, Hooker’s skillset is heavily dependent on athleticism, which might not age as well—this isn’t even factoring in his ACL injury. Whereas most quarterbacks enter their prime at the end of their rookie contracts, Hooker will be nearing the end of his. If the Lions opt to extend Goff in the future, then they’ve suddenly wasted a high draft pick on an older backup quarterback prospect with minimal trade value.

Hooker’s age would also be an outlier for general manager Brad Holmes. Youth has been the name of the Lions’ draft game since Holmes took over:

I love the idea of getting a mobile quarterback to either backup or replace Jared Goff down the road, but I’m not sold on Hooker being that guy. If he makes it to Day 3 of the draft, I would be fine drafting a high-upside player like him. However, his age, injury, and scheme pose too great a risk for me to draft him any earlier.

Your turn.