Favorite NFL Futures bets for 2024 season: In Memory of Howard Ratner

It’s a 2024 NFL betting preview but with a preamble.

*Spoilers ahead*

Howard Ratner, portrayed by Adam Sandler and the tragic hero (?) of the Safdie brother's 2019 film Uncut Gems, is a compulsive gambler. Over the course of the film, Ratner’s life spirals further and further out of control as he robs Peter to pay Paul. His marriage is effectively over, his affair with an employee who works under him is tumultuous—at best, and his jewelry store itself is on the brink of ruin.

At the root of it all, his gambling addiction is ruining him both personally and professionally. Ratner’s story, while hyperbolic to help build suspense and pump audiences full of anxiety, is ultimately a cautionary tale of the throes of gambling. It’s pervasive and omnipresent, eating away at every aspect of someone’s self and their interpersonal relationships—and in the case of Howard Ratner, his untimely demise.

If you, or someone you know and love, is struggling with gambling addiction, it’s never too late to get help: National Council on Problem Gambling.

*Spoilers and PSA over*

Since we’re being mindful and making sure to steer clear of Ratner’s pitfalls, let’s simply channel the spirit, enthusiasm, and insane confidence of our favorite fictional degenerate.

In the words of the immortal Howard Ratner: “Let’s f***** bet on this.”

Here are my favorite future bets for the 2024 NFL season.

Will Levis to lead the NFL in passing yards
Best current odds: +8000 (BetMGM)

First things first, when placing a futures bet, I can’t stress enough how important it is to shop around various sportsbooks to find the best odds—and this Will Levis prop is the perfect example. BetMGM’s odds are inexplicably longer compared to other books like DraftKings (+3000) and FanDuel (+3800). So for example, a $10 wager at BetMGM returns $810, while a $10 wager at DraftKings would only bring you back $310. That’s a massive discrepancy, so ABS—Always Be Shopping.

As for the prop itself, look, I get it, it’s the mayo-sippin’ Will Levis, but here’s where I see the insane value. Through 15 weeks last year—after every team had made it through the bye week—Sam Howell was seventh in total passing yards and just 413 yards behind the leader in Tua Tagovailoa, so crazier stuff has happened. Levis feels like he’s in a similar situation as Howell was last year, too: a team in flux, trying to figure out if the quarterback they took on Day 2 of the draft is going to work. The Titans added Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd alongside DeAndre Hopkins to form what has to be the oldest group of starting wide receivers in the NFL, but instead of old, let’s frame them as trusted veterans.

But the part of this bet that has me most intrigued is the hiring of Brian Callahan, the former offensive coordinator for the Cincinnati Bengals. Last year, after Joe Burrow was sidelined for the regular season with a wrist injury in Week 11, Callahan was left with Jake Browning, a 27-year-old journeyman who hadn’t taken an NFL snap before, to lead the Bengals offense. Bet you can’t guess who was second in passing yards between weeks 12-18 last year...

(It was Browning with 1,868 yards, just 47 yards off from the leader in Dak Prescott).

Also, he’s bringing Bill Callahan, Brian’s father and longtime offensive line guru, along with him to be the team’s offensive line coach. This offseason, Tennessee signed Lloyd Cushenberry to a hefty contract, making him the second-highest-paid center behind Frank Ragnow, and drafted JC Latham with the seventh overall pick after taking Peter Skoronski in the first round the year before.

Improved offensive line? Capable group of veteran wide receivers? A rocket arm and a license to chuck it? It’s worth a flier at +8000, so I bet 0.5 units ($5).

Los Angeles Rams to win the NFC West
Best current odds: +330 (DraftKings/FanDuel)

Admittedly, part of this was fueled by the Brandon Aiyuk drama in San Francisco (#RickeyStrong), but also, the Los Angeles Rams could be really, really good in 2024.

With Kupp back and healthy, this offense starts the year as one of the best in the league from a player personnel standpoint. They’re not very deep, but they did grab Blake Corum to backup Kyren Williams—a revelation last year, tied for PFF’s second-highest rushing grade (90.6) with Christian McCaffrey. After making some upgrades to their offensive line, there’s a path to this offense being a top-five group in the NFL.

Now, their schedule is a bit hairy, especially since their out-of-division schedule comes from the AFC East and NFC North. And losing the greatest defensive football player of our generation in Aaron Donald isn’t easy to replace, but the Rams have really invested in building out their defensive line. Kobie Turner and Byron Young were a couple of third-round picks in 2023 that really produced above expectations, but that didn’t keep Les Snead and Co. from doubling down in the 2024 NFL Draft, taking Jared Verse and Braden Fiske in the first two rounds.

If the 49ers take even a slight slip—if they’re forced to move on from Aiyuk, that’s reason alone to consider a step back as a possibility—the Rams would be primed to reclaim the division. At +330, they have the longest odds of any team after the favorite to win their respective division—even the Chargers have better odds to win the AFC West (+320). Give me the Rams to carry over the momentum of that 7-1 stretch to end the 2023 season into 2024.

Jayden Daniels to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
Best current odds: +600 (BetMGM/FanDuel)

Caleb Williams is the prohibitive favorite to win this award at right around +140 in most places, but why not Daniels? Aside from Williams, he’s the only other rookie quarterback currently slated to be his team’s starter, so the opportunity and playing time will be abundant. With Marcus Mariota as his backup, he should have plenty of leash to make mistakes and learn.

Daniels has some interesting skill position players at his disposal, both young (Jahan Dotson) and veteran (Terry McLaurin). His skill set and play style lends itself well to counting stats, something voters will inevitably rely on when filling out their ballots, but so does team success, unfortunately. The enigmatic NFC East is for the taking, but it’s beyond presumptuous to suggest the Commanders have a shot at winning it. That being said, it isn’t guaranteed the Bears are going to be a playoff team either*, so throwing a half unit on Daniels could at least make the NFC East more interesting to watch than the car accident it’s shaping up to be.

[*Editor’s note: Banking on the Bears not making the playoffs is currently at -110 on DraftKings and -112 on FanDuel]

David Montgomery to lead NFL in rushing TDs
Best current odds: +2100 (FanDuel)

There’s just a lot of value here at FanDuel compared to other books like BetMGM (+1200) and DraftKings (+1800) which, as previously mentioned, is something to always take into consideration. But beyond a great deal, it’s a flier worth taking on a player whose team very much trusts him to get the job done on the goal line—a place where they expect to be a lot with the expectations for their offense.

Derrick Henry sits around +650 to +700 in most places, which, sure, but Lamar Jackson is as viable a threat to score with either his arm or legs when Baltimore gets within the red zone. Christian McCaffrey is another one of the favorites around +600 to +750, but he only has two seasons where he eclipsed eight rushing touchdowns (2019 and 2023), so the implied probability suggests there’s between 11.7% and 14.5% (depending on the book) that McCaffrey leads the league in rushing touchdowns. Not really seeing the value there with those odds.

Montgomery finished t-fifth in rushing touchdowns (13) last year, his first season in Detroit, despite playing in just 14 games—and missing nearly three-quarters of the Week 6 matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. At +2100, it feels like some really good value on a player with what might be the best offensive line in football blocking in front of him.